Most Brexit Voters Would Agree to Free Movement for Single Market Access.

Recent polling across Europe indicates that leaders in the UK and the EU are increasingly misaligned with public sentiment as they seek to implement an 'ambitious reset'.

A significant portion of British citizens who supported leaving the EU would now be amenable to reinstating free movement in return for access to the single market, as indicated by a comprehensive study conducted across Europe. This research also revealed a mutual interest among EU member states in fostering stronger connections with the United Kingdom.

The report from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) noted that Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Donald Trump's election as President of the United States have "fundamentally altered the context" of relations between the EU and the UK.

There is a remarkable consensus on both sides of the Channel that the time is ripe for a reassessment of EU-UK relations,” it concluded. In every country surveyed, closer relations emerged as the most favoured option, with public sentiment on the matter significantly outpacing governmental positions.

A study conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), which surveyed over 9,000 individuals across the United Kingdom and the five most populous countries of the European Union—namely Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Poland—revealed that following Donald Trump's election victory in November, there was a notable enthusiasm in Britain for re-establishing connections with the EU.

One of the most significant revelations from the study was that 54% of British voters who supported leaving the EU, including 59% of those in traditionally Conservative constituencies, indicated that they would now be willing to accept full free movement for EU and UK citizens in exchange for access to the single market.

This shift in perspective may be attributed to the increase in net migration to the UK post-2016, leading supporters of Brexit to reconsider its effectiveness as a solution to immigration issues, as suggested by the report.

Among the broader UK electorate, 68% of respondents expressed support for free movement in return for single market access, while 19% opposed it. This sentiment was prevalent among supporters of nearly all political parties, with the exception of Reform UK, where 44% of its voters also endorsed the proposal.

A comparable proportion of British citizens expressed support for a reciprocal youth mobility program aimed at individuals aged 18 to 30. This initiative is regarded as a significant request from EU leaders in exchange for a more favourable Brexit agreement; however, it has thus far been opposed by the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer.

In light of the current global situation, the report indicated that the United Kingdom and the European Union ought to “go big and go fast” in restoring links. It added: “The EU and the UK are both very vulnerable to prevailing global events and a reset of relations is the single most effective way to make both sides stronger.”

The report indicated that although EU politicians and officials have expressed skepticism regarding the proposal to extend any special arrangements to the UK, Starmer and his administration have also shown caution in advocating for enhanced relations. However, public sentiment on both sides of the English Channel appears to diverge significantly from these official positions.

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Among the British electorate, there is notable support for a strengthened relationship with the EU, with 55% expressing a desire for closer ties to the bloc, in contrast to 10% who favor a more distant relationship and 22% who wish to maintain the current status quo.

This perspective is echoed by a considerable number of Conservative supporters, particularly concerning issues related to migration and security. Conversely, it is primarily voters from Reform UK who exhibit greater skepticism regarding the advantages of closer connections with the EU.

In a survey conducted across the European Union, majorities in each participating nation expressed a desire for strengthened ties with the United Kingdom. Specifically, 45% of respondents from Germany indicated this preference, followed by 44% from Poland, 41% from Spain, 40% from Italy, and 34% from France.

“It is important to recognise that Brexit and the UK-EU future relationship matters more to UK respondents than to citizens of other states. But there is broad permission from European publics to recast relations,”the report said.

“There might be scepticism about special terms for the UK among EU officials and governments, but our poll suggests that public opinion is more pragmatic.”

Both UK and EU citizens, it continued, “are open to a much more ambitious and far-reaching reset than their governments have been envisaging”.

The report indicated that approximately half of the British population believed that increased engagement with the European Union was the most effective means to enhance the UK economy (50%), improve security (53%), manage migration effectively (58%), address climate change (48%), support Ukraine against Russia (48%), and enable Britain to assert itself against the US (46%) and China (49%).

There was also considerable support among EU nationals for the notion of granting certain post-Brexit economic concessions in return for enhanced cooperation in critical areas such as collective security.

Polling data revealed that a majority of voters in Germany and Poland, along with a plurality in France, Italy, and Spain, felt that the EU should be prepared to offer economic concessions to the UK to foster a closer security partnership. Additionally, majorities or near-majorities expressed openness to the UK participating in the bloc’s research initiatives.

This sentiment could extend to the concept of the UK selectively accessing certain aspects of the single market, with a majority of voters in Germany (54%) and Poland (53%) supporting the idea of “special access.” Even in France, which was the least favorable towards such proposals, 41% of respondents indicated support, compared to 29% who opposed it.

For citizens of the European Union, the primary motivations for enhancing collaboration with the United Kingdom included the desire to bolster the security of the bloc, with approximately 40% of respondents from Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain supporting this view, as well as the need to assert themselves against the United States and China.

Majorities in all five EU nations indicated that increased cooperation between the EU and the UK would be the most effective means to boost the European economy, with support ranging from 38% in Spain to 26% in France. Additionally, they believed it would facilitate more effective migration management, with figures varying from 36% in France to 29% in Germany. A significant portion of the population across the EU expressed the sentiment that Brexit had negatively impacted the Union.

Although certain Conservative and Reform politicians have proposed that the UK should align politically with a potential Trump presidency at the expense of its European ties, this perspective did not appear to resonate with a majority of voters. When surveyed about whether the UK should prioritize its relationship with the United States or the EU, 50% of Britons favored Europe, while only 17% preferred the US.

European citizens exhibited a comparable hesitance regarding their governments adopting the approach taken by Trump. “Donald Trump’s election and Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine have hit British and European politics like a double hammer blow,” said the ECFR director, Mark Leonard, who authored the report.

“The Brexit-era divisions have faded and both European and British citizens realise that they need each other to get safer. Governments now need to catch up with public opinion and offer an ambitious reset.”

Brexit has proven to be a costly and divisive decision for the UK. The promised economic benefits have not materialized, with trade barriers, rising costs, and disrupted supply chains negatively impacting businesses and consumers alike. The lack of clarity and misalignment between government policies and public sentiment has created ongoing uncertainty.

The fracturing of UK-EU relations has also led to diminished global influence, particularly in matters of security, climate change, and economic cooperation. As public opinion shifts, it is clear that Brexit’s long-term consequences are far more detrimental than anticipated, leaving the UK isolated and struggling.

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