The Power Law’s Impact on Venture Capital: Insights and Case Studies Involving Investors Like Yuri Milner
Many venture capital (VC) experts and enthusiasts turn to Sebastian Mallaby’s 2022 book “The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future”. Shortlisted for the Financial Times Business Book of the Year, it recounts the rise of the VC industry via the stories of leading venture capitalists like Yuri Milner.
As such, those interested in investing will find a wealth of insights and case studies that enhance their understanding of VC investments in this book.
How The Power Law Shapes Venture Capital Strategies
The “power law” is the thread that runs through this book — a law that suggests only a few investments will be the key to an investor’s major returns. As Mallaby shows, even the success of one investment can be transformative.
He refers to examples like the tech startup backer Y Combinator. In 2012, just 2 of this company’s 280 investments made up three-quarters of its gains. Then there’s the example of the investment company Horsley Bridge. Between 1985 and 2014, just 5% of this company’s capital produced 60% of its total returns.
The lesson is that when venture capitalists make an investment that takes off, they “become outsized stars,” dominating the sectors in which they invest. To make such an investment, a venture capitalist will need to employ strategy and make careful decisions that influence future outcomes.
With one success pinned down, a venture capitalist’s opportunities for further growth will likely multiply at scale. Mallaby gives the example of Jeff Bezos, whose “opportunities for further enrichment” multiplied once he had earned “great riches.”
Yuri Milner’s Industry-Defining Investment in Facebook
Another example of a venture capitalist who made an industry-defining investment that sparked ongoing success is Yuri Milner. Mallaby refers to Milner frequently throughout “The Power Law,” telling the story of how his investment company DST Global made a game-changing investment in Facebook.
In 2004, Mark Zuckerberg and his friend Andrew McCollum were due to attend a meeting with Sequoia Capital. The meeting was to discuss Sequoia backing Facebook. Zuckerberg and McCollum arrived “insolently” late wearing pajamas — they said they’d overslept.
Zuckerberg, like many entrepreneurs of the early 2000s, was deliberately playing hard to get. In his case, though, he didn’t want Sequoia Capital to invest in Facebook. He was fearful of losing control to investors who would implement their management style and vision for the company over his.
While this is an extreme example, the story reflects the wider state of VC at the time. Many entrepreneurs were becoming choosy about their investors.
The Trip to Silicon Valley That Changed Everything
Things changed for Mark Zuckerberg when Milner proposed an investment a few years later. Mallaby recounts the story in “The Power Law” and on an episode of the “FED Insight Bridge” podcast.
With the “youth revolt” well underway, many young entrepreneurs didn’t want to defer to older venture capitalists who they felt — given outdated VC approaches — were less likely to respect and value them.
Facebook had already been around for a few years but wasn’t getting its desired investment interest because of the 2008 financial crisis. Having heard about the company’s unsuccessful attempts to raise funds, Milner phoned the CFO to discuss a potential investment.
The CFO hadn’t heard of Milner and asked him, “Have you ever even been to Silicon Valley?” Milner said he hadn’t, and the CFO didn’t want to hear any more. At this point, Milner asked his secretary to book him a flight to San Francisco. Arriving at the airport, he called Facebook’s CFO again, said he was coming to Silicon Valley, and asked to meet.
The CFO agreed, which proved a pivotal moment for Facebook. Milner was prepared to inject significant capital without requesting a board seat, which allowed Zuckerberg to maintain control over the company.
Milner had collected key metrics on various social media platforms and used these to project revenue for Facebook. His $10 billion valuation vastly outpaced other interested investors, and his predictions were on point. Over the next 18 months, Facebook’s audience multiplied and its revenue scaled.
This example demonstrates the power law at its finest — one investment that paved the way for Milner to achieve further success with some of the world’s biggest internet companies, from Spotify and X to Alibaba and Airbnb.
The Power Law Perspective
To integrate the power law into an investment strategy, a venture capitalist will need to adopt a strategic VC perspective. Mallaby references the venture capitalist Vinod Khosla as someone who has fully embodied this way of thinking.
Khosla believes that a technological solution can solve most social problems… as long as investors are prepared to be ambitious when supporting the solutions. In 2004, he launched Khosla Ventures and invested in bandwidth technology companies, which led to major developments in the young internet market.
With a mindset like Khosla’s or Milner’s, a venture capitalist will already be well on their way to making strategic investments that reap extensive rewards. One example of a VC company that embraced the power law and saw success as a result is Tiger Global, which invested in fast-growing companies with scaling goals as well as startups.
It was investing in more mature companies with serious potential for returns that earned the company $100 million in under a year. The secret to their success was investing in Asian tech companies like NetEase, Sina, and Sohu.
Another example is Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), which uniquely positioned itself by claiming it had created a brand-new VC model. Drawing on Milner’s tech incubation approach, the company selected “precocious breakout firms” to fund.
a16z reassured the founders of these companies that they wouldn’t replace them with individuals who had more management experience, which was typical at the time. Instead, they provided support and guidance to help these founders make stronger decisions and form strategic industry connections.
Hitting Gold in Investments With the Power Law
Overall, the power law has proven to be a successful underpinning of a venture capitalist’s approach to investment. When an investor hits gold by strategically investing in a company with immense growth potential, they can set themselves on a path of wealth and abundance.
As apparent in the investment strategies of venture capitalists like Milner, the power law continues to intrigue and inspire investors everywhere.
About Yuri Milner
Yuri Milner is a technology investor and science philanthropist who has paved the way for change in these industries worldwide. As a Giving Pledge signatory, he has co-founded and funded several charitable initiatives through his Breakthrough Foundation.
Many people know him as the co-founder of the world’s biggest science award, the Breakthrough Prize. He is also the co-founder of the Breakthrough Initiatives, a suite of space science programs that are uncovering the Universe, fragment by fragment, in search of signs of extraterrestrial life.
On top of this, he is the author of the short book Eureka Manifesto: The Mission for Our Civilization. Published online in 2021, Eureka Manifesto proposes humanity’s shared mission: to investigate our Universe by adopting and celebrating science and technology.
Learn more about technology investor and philanthropist Yuri Milner.