Will TikTok Ever Be Banned In The UK?

Will TikTok Ever Be Banned In The UK?

Analysts have indicated that it is only a matter of time before the United States' prohibition on TikTok extends to allied nations and potentially further, should the Trump administration choose to maintain the app's unavailability.

The application has been disabled in the United States following a decision by lawmakers who deemed it a national security threat due to its parent company, ByteDance's, connections to the Chinese government, which the company has denied.

President Trump, however, has expressed his opposition to the ban and has signaled his intention to seek a reversal of the decision.

Should the United States proceed with the ban, experts suggest that the prior removal of Chinese and Russian technology firms on national security grounds may serve as a model for how the TikTok prohibition could proliferate globally.

"There are big parallels between TikTok and what happened with China's Huawei and Russia's Kaspersky that indicates it's just a matter of time until a creeping ban takes affect," says Emily Taylor, Editor of the Cyber Policy Journal.

In both instances, these companies faced accusations from the United States regarding their potential threat to national security; however, cybersecurity authorities never presented definitive evidence to substantiate these claims.

A similar situation has arisen with TikTok.

During President Trump's administration, Kaspersky's leading antivirus software was prohibited from use on both civilian and military computers in the United States following allegations in 2017 that it had been utilized by the Kremlin in a hacking incident, a claim that was never substantiated.

The United Kingdom quickly followed suit, and subsequently, numerous other allies implemented restrictions, issued warnings, or enacted bans.

Although it took several years, a nationwide ban was ultimately enforced in the United States last year, though by that time, it had become largely ineffective. Kaspersky subsequently ceased its operations in the United States, followed by the closure of its offices in the United Kingdom, citing the lack of a viable business environment.

The company has consistently maintained that the U.S. government's decision was influenced more by the "geopolitical climate and theoretical concerns" than by an independent assessment of actual risk.

Research conducted by Bitsight indicates that Kaspersky's usage experienced a significant decline following the ban, not only in the United States but also in at least 25 other countries, including those that did not have explicit public policies against the software.

A similar situation unfolded with the Chinese telecommunications company Huawei.

The United States alleged that Huawei, along with other Chinese technology firms, maintained excessively close ties to the Chinese government. It contended that the widely used 5G equipment from the company should not be employed in telecommunications infrastructure due to potential risks of espionage or interference with communications.

A former employee of Huawei in the UK remarked that once the United States opted to impose a ban, block, or restrictions on Huawei, it became nearly unavoidable for allied nations to take similar actions.

"The UK and others spoke about independently coming to their own conclusions over security but the US was unrelenting in its lobbying behind closed doors. They warned about the national security risks which were never backed up by evidence," said the former insider, who didn't want to be named.

Intensive lobbying efforts by the United States directed towards its allies regarding security matters are frequently observed in various facets of cyber policy.

Five Eyes Alliance

The process typically begins with the nations comprising the Five Eyes Alliance.

This tightly-knit intelligence-sharing network consists of five English-speaking democracies: the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

To date, all member countries have prohibited the use of TikTok on government devices, with some also issuing public advisories. Canada has mandated the cessation of TikTok's operations within its borders, citing concerns related to national security.

The repercussions of the Five Eyes influence can be significant, leading to widespread restrictions. The application has already been banned on the devices of government employees, civil servants, and military personnel in several countries, including Austria, Belgium, Estonia, France, the Netherlands, Norway, and Taiwan.

Ciaran Martin, who previously led the UK's National Cyber Security Centre during the prohibitions on Huawei and Kaspersky, concurs that when the United States makes a national security or strategic decision regarding a company, the United Kingdom and its allies typically follow suit.

Nevertheless, he notes that there is a substantial caveat concerning TikTok, particularly with the impending Trump administration.

"What we don't yet know is whether TikTok will be the exception as Trump has said he is opposed to the ban so will he order allies to replicate a ban? We don't yet know."

Trump's stance on TikTok has undergone a significant transformation since his initial presidency, during which he sought to impose a ban on the platform. Following this period, he has shifted to a position of support, particularly after his re-election campaign garnered traction through TikTok videos.

Emily Taylor concurs that this unpredictable element could distinguish TikTok from Huawei and Kaspersky.

"It depends on how much pressure the administration is willing to exert", she told the BBC.

"If their foreign policy agenda is packed then forcing other allies to follow the ban might fall down the list and allow countries to wait it out".

At the moment, there are "no plans" for a TikTok ban in the UK, a government spokesperson said on Saturday. "We engage with all major social media companies to understand their plans for ensuring the security of UK data and to ensure they meet the high data protection and cyber security standards we expect."

Meanwhile, UK government minister Darren Jones told the BBC on Sunday: "We won't be following the same path as the Americans unless or until... there is a threat that we are concerned about in the British interest, and then of course we will keep it under review."

But Jones, the chief secretary to the Treasury, told Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg that "for consumers who want to post videos of their cats dancing, that doesn't seem like a security threat to me".

Would TikTok survive without the USA?

One important consideration regarding TikTok's future in the event of a US ban is the app's ability to sustain its success without access to a US user base.

The loss of 170 million users would undoubtedly have a detrimental impact on any application, but US users are particularly significant due to their value to creators, advertisers, and direct purchases through TikTok Shop.

Should other Western nations follow suit, it would lead to a decrease in revenue for the company and hinder the development of new features, thereby reinforcing the supremacy of US platforms such as Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, and Snapchat.

TikTok is already prohibited in countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India, which represent substantial markets. Additionally, it does not operate in China due to the presence of its sister app, Douyin.

Companies like Kaspersky and Huawei have successfully navigated their challenges by focusing on domestic markets and expanding into regions such as Africa and the Middle East.

Thus, it may be feasible for TikTok to cultivate its user base in these areas. However, if the US ban spreads globally, the app is unlikely to achieve its current scale and may face a gradual decline.

Despite challenges, TikTok's global popularity and resilience remain evident. While concerns about national security persist, the app's ability to adapt and innovate has allowed it to maintain a strong presence in various regions. The shifting stance of leaders like President Trump signals potential opportunities for the platform's future in the U.S. and beyond.

RELATED: TikTok Resumes US Service After Trump's Commitment.

As TikTok continues to engage users and create value for creators, advertisers, and consumers, its long-term success may hinge on diversifying its markets. With continued efforts to address security concerns, TikTok could remain a powerful force in the social media landscape for years to come.