Yesterday saw Chancellor Phillip Hammond deliver his second budget. While the abolition of Stamp Duty, several tax revisions, freezes on several duties, increased investment in AI and Technology and a £3 billion investment into the NHS all came as welcome additions they could not prevent a sharp drop in the UK Growth Forecast following the budget.
So with many experts labelling it a ‘make or break’ moment for Hammond and a somewhat beleaguered Government, we spoke to the industry experts to see what the Autumn budget really means for the Financial Sector in a special extended Your Thoughts: Autumn Budget 2017
Choose your sector below or scroll through to read all the insight.
FinTech & Digital
UK Growth, Investment & Forex
Tax
Healthcare & Retail
Property & Real Estate
Abe Smith, CEO and Founder at Dealflo
London has been a world-leading financial centre since the 19th century, but low growth forecasts and the lack of clarity around Brexit are unsettling for businesses. The Chancellor has had to work hard to ensure that the UK remains an attractive place to invest and innovate post-Brexit. The new National Investment Fund means that even after Brexit, the UK will remain a hub for FinTech innovation and will attract fast-growing tech companies.
Niels Turfboer, Managing Director of UK & Benelux, Spotcap:
The FinTech industry is going from strength to strength and the UK Government can play an important part in enabling FinTechs to continue to thrive.
We therefore welcome Philip Hammond’s promise to invest over £500m in numerous technology initiatives, including artificial intelligence and regulatory innovation, as well as unlock over £20bn of new investment in UK scale-up businesses.
With this assurance, the government has shown a strong commitment to the FinTech sector, which will hopefully help tech companies all around the UK to flourish and grow.
World Economic Forum member Jane Zavalishina, CEO of Yandex Data Factory
The reality is that it is not the scientific development of AI that will be game-changing in the next few years, but instead the more prosaic, practical application of AI across many different sectors.
While AI is too often associated with self-driving cars and robots, the truth is the most significant AI applications that are of most significance to businesses, are actually the least visually exciting. AI that improves decision-making, optimises existing processes and delivers more accurate demand prediction will boost productivity far more powerfully than in all sectors.
But it’s not just productivity that will be significantly impacted – business revenue will also benefit. The beauty of AI lies in its ability to be applied with no capital investments – making it an affordable innovation for businesses to adopt. Unlike what is commonly thought, applying AI does not require infrastructure changes – in many processes cases we already have automated process control, so adding AI on top would require no investment at all. Instead, companies will see ROI within just a few months.
Martin Port, Founder and CEO BigChange:
We welcome this announcement and support for tech businesses from the Chancellor. Financial backing and stability is a huge hurdle facing all start-ups, so I am pleased to see the government pledge more than £20 billion of new investment. I just hope this funding is easy to access and readily available for those who need it, rather than being hidden among reams of red tape.
Leon Deakin, Partner in the technology team at Coffin Mew:
As a firm with a growing technology sector and client base in this area we are obviously delighted to see specific investment in the technology sector, particularly in AI and driverless vehicles.
Doom mongers have long been predicting that the UK and its tech hubs will be hit hard by Brexit and there have been numerous reports of rival cities within the EU which have sought to position themselves as alternative options. However, we are yet to see this materialise and incentives and commitments such as those announced by the Chancellor in these innovative but essential areas have to be great news for the economy, the sector and those who advise businesses in it.
Of course, creating the next unicorn is no easy task but a serious level of investment of the magnitude announced should at least ensure those businesses with promise have the best chance to scale up even if they don’t reach the $1billion level. Likewise, there is little point developing these new technologies if the infrastructure and support is then not there to utilise them properly
Matthew Adam, Chief Executive Officer of We Are Digital:
With the UK economy now expected to grow by 1.5% in 2017, a downgrade from the 2% forecast made in March, coupled with the challenges of Brexit, the need for the UK to sit at the forefront of digital skills and inclusion is more pressing than ever. We need to be able to grasp, with both hands, the digital opportunities that present themselves to us in order to make us a true global digital force.
The reality is that we simply cannot afford not to. Independent analysis shows that getting the UK online and understanding how to use digital tools could add between £63 billion - £92 billion to UK Plc’s annual GDP. Indeed, it is my belief that economies which focus strongly on getting its citizens online are also more productive.
The Chancellor has said that a new high-tech business is founded in the UK every hour, which he wants to increase to every half hour. It is imperative we support this growth through the announced £500m investment in artificial intelligence, to 5G and full-fibre broadband. However, to bridge the need for the 1.2 million new technical and digitally skilled people which are required by 2022, we must create and support retraining opportunities across society to make the UK truly digital.
Technology improvements are causing widespread changes in every market and the public sector should be no exception, especially as it often faces the biggest social problems to solve. I’m glad the government is waking up to the fact that the latest technological advances don’t need to be assigned only to the private sector, but can do a lot of good to the community at large. We know from our direct work with the Home Office that every government and council department is moving its processes online. Whether it’s chatbots to automate processes, or solving how people engage with Universal Credit, there is so much we can do here with ‘Gov -tech’
I therefore welcome the Chancellor’s digital announcements today and consider this budget as not so much a leap in the right digital direction, but more a necessary conservative step.
Owain Walters, CEO of Frontierpay:
The Chancellor’s efforts to win younger voters from Labour by abolishing stamp relief for first-time buyers on homes up to £300,000, and on the first £300,000 of properties up to £500,000, come as no surprise. The potential for such an announcement has been a hot media topic in recent weeks and as such, we don’t expect to see any significant impact on the value of the pound.
“In the wake of this Budget, any real movement from the pound will be caused either by developments in the Brexit negotiations or the potential for a further interest rate rise. I would therefore advise any businesses that want to stay on top of turbulence in the currency markets to keep a close eye on inflation data.
Markus Kuger, Senior Economist, Dun & Bradstreet
It’s not surprising that the Chancellor opened this year’s statement with a focus on Brexit; even as businesses absorb the implications of the Budget, they have a close eye to the ongoing negotiations and any likely trade agreement, which is likely to profoundly impact their future. The government’s move to provide a £3bn fund in the event of a no-deal outcome is designed to increase business confidence. In the meantime the business environment remains challenging, and Dun & Bradstreet forecasts that real GDP growth in 2018 will slow to 1.3% (from 1.8% in 2016). Businesses should continue to follow the Brexit negotiations closely and consider that operating conditions could change dramatically over the next 18 months as the Brexit settlement is clarified.”
Damian Kimmelman, CEO of Duedil
We welcome the government’s announcement that the Enterprise Investment Schemes’ (EIS) investment limit, for knowledge intensive scale-ups has been doubled.
The EIS has been great for attracting investment for small businesses, however we need to ensure investment through the scheme is not being used for capital preservation purposes, but instead to encourage the growth of companies.
The key to increasing investment in ‘higher risk’ growth companies through the EIS scheme, is to eliminate information friction. With more data, investors can price risk effectively, so they can lend to support the small businesses forming the backbone of the economy, driving growth, and creating jobs.
Lee Wild, Head of Equity Strategy at Interactive Investor:
This budget was always going to be especially tricky for the chancellor. Hitting fiscal targets amid wide divisions over Brexit, while also spending more on populist policies to distract voters from Conservative party infighting and dysfunctional cabinet, was a big ask. Hammond wasn’t fibbing when he promised a balanced budget. Once tax giveaways, downgrades to growth forecasts, billions more for the NHS and the rest are put through the mincer, both the FTSE 100 and sterling are unchanged.
Given Britain’s housing crisis was an obvious target for the chancellor, he really needed something substantial to make his aim of 300,000 new homes built every year anything more than a pipe dream. Committing to at least £44 billion of capital funding, loans and guarantees to support the housing market will go a long way to achieving the chancellor’s ambitious target. Abolishing stamp duty for first-time buyer purchases up to £300,000 is a tiny saving, however, and buyers, especially in London, will still require a huge deposit to get a foot on the housing ladder.
The market hung on Hammond’s every word, causing a comical yo-yo effect as the chancellor slowly revealed his strategy. A threat to use compulsory purchase powers where builders are believed to be holding land for commercial reasons, could cause sleepless nights.
Overall, Hammond’s ideas are sound, but probably not enough of a catalyst to get sector share prices rising significantly near-term, given mixed results in the run-up to this budget.
Mihir Kapadia – CEO and Founder of Sun Global Investments:
The Autumn budget statement from Chancellor Phillip Hammond was as expected, with a few pleasant surprises. While Mr Hammond set out his policy proposals with a "vision for post-Brexit Britain", he also acknowledged that his Budget was "about much more than Brexit". With the Conservatives struggling in the polls, the Chancellor was under pressure to regain support for his party, which is currently in a fragile coalition.
The expected announcements include the decision to abolish stamp duty for first time buyers on properties up to £300,000, addressing the housing crisis, an immediate injection of £3.75 billion into the NHS, investments into infrastructure (transport and network), freezing duty on fuel, alcohol and air travel, and finally a Brexit contingency budget of £3 billion.
While today’s budget was populist and aimed at the electorate, it has to be noted that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) sharply downgraded both Britain's productivity and growth forecasts, as well as its business investment forecasts, meaning the UK's finances look set to worsen over the coming years. This does not factor the possibility of a Brexit-related downturn or a wider global recession, which has already been seen as overdue by many forecasters.
We expect the abolition of stamp duty for first time buyers on properties up to £300,000 will draw extra attention and headlines from much of today’s announcements. It is vital that we acknowledge the warnings from the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Angus Dent, CEO, ArchOver:
The UK’s productivity growth continues to decrease and we’re looking in the wrong place for answers. It’s not just a case of everyone working a bit harder. Investment in public infrastructure and fiscal policy will be the defining factors that help the UK catch up, while real growth will come from our SME sector.
Britain is known as a nation of entrepreneurs. Yet we’re in real danger of not giving our SMEs the support they need to thrive. We need a bottom-up approach where small businesses with bright ideas have access to the finance and advice they need to grow. Only then will we have the firm economic foundation we need to build our productivity post-Brexit.
The expansion of the National Investment Fund in today’s Budget is a good start, but too many SMEs still have to pay their way with personal savings or put their houses on the line as security if they turn to the big banks for help.
We need to inspire a new culture. We know there is an army of willing investors out there who want to support British business - lending across P2P platforms is on course to rise by 20 per cent by the end of this year according to data from 4thWay.
However, we need to raise awareness among SMEs of the different options available to help them finance their growth. SMEs need to take control of their own destiny. With the right finance in place, they can drive the whole country forward to new heights of productivity. We can’t just leave it to government – small businesses must be given the power and the cash to fulfil their potential.
Paul Falvey, tax partner at BDO:
It’s clear that the headline grabbing news revolved around the Chancellor’s decision to abolish stamp duty for first time buyers on properties purchased up to 300,000, at a cost of £600m a year to the tax man. Whilst this is important for people getting on the property ladder, there were other key assertions.
Firstly, HMRC will start to charge more tax on royalties relating to UK sales when those royalties are paid to a low tax jurisdiction. Although this is only set to raise approximately £200m a year, it sets a precedent that tax avoidance will continue to be on the governments agenda. Implementing the OECD policies is a tactic we expected.
Furthermore, companies will pay additional tax on the increase in value of their capital assets from January 2018. The expected abolition of indexation allowance will mean that, despite falling tax rates, companies will be taxed on higher profits. By 2022/2023 this is expected to raise over £525m.
62% of the businesses we polled before the Budget said they will be willing to pay more taxes in return for a simpler system. Yet, once again, the government has done nothing to tackle the issue of tax complexity. It is a huge obstacle to growth and businesses will be disappointed that there was no commitment to setting out a coherent tax strategy.
Craig Harman is a Tax Specialist at Perrys Chartered Accountants:
Although it was widely anticipated beforehand, the only real rabbit out of the hat moment for the Chancellor was confirming the abolishment of stamp duty for first time buyers. This equates to quite a generous tax incentive for those able to benefit resulting in a £5,000 saving on a £300,000 property purchase.
The Chancellor has also stood by his previous promises, by raising the personal allowance to £11,850, and the higher rate threshold to £43,650. This is in line with the commitment to raise them to £12,500 and £50,000 respectively by the end of parliament.
Small business owners will be pleased to note that speculation regarding a decrease in the VAT registration threshold did not come to fruition. It was anticipated the Chancellor would look to bring the UK in line with other EU countries, however this will be consulted on instead and may result in changes over the next couple of years. Any decrease in the threshold could place a significant tax and compliance burden on the smallest businesses.
Ed Molyneux, CEO and co-founder of FreeAgent
I don’t believe that this is a particularly positive Budget for the micro-business sector. Rather than actually offering real support or meaningful legislation to people running their own businesses in Britain, the Chancellor has simply kept the status quo.
While it’s pleasing to see that the VAT threshold has not been lowered - which would have added a significant new administrative burden to millions of UK business owners - this is hardly cause for celebration. Neither is the exemption of ‘white van men’ from diesel charges, which is the very least that the Government could have done to protect the country’s army of self-employed tradespeople.
It’s also disappointing that there are still a number of issues including digital tax that have not been expanded in this Budget. I would have preferred to see the Chancellor provide clarity on those issues, as well as introducing new legislation to curb the culture of late payment that is plaguing the micro-business sector and further simplifying National Insurance, VAT and other business taxes.
Rob Marchant, Partner, Crowe Clark Whitehill
The Chancellor announced that the VAT registration threshold will not be changed for the next two years while a review is carried out of the implications of changing this (either up or down).
Having a high threshold is often regarded as creating a ‘cliff edge’ for businesses that grow to the point of crossing that line. However, keeping a significant number of small businesses away from the obligations of being VAT registered allows them to focus on running their operations without additional worry. Many small businesses will welcome the retention of the threshold.
The consultation should look at ways to help smooth the effect of the “cliff edge”, while continuing to reduce administrative obligations for small businesses.
Jane Mackay, Head of Tax, Crowe Clark Whitehill
The tax avoidance debate has centred around large multinationals and their corporate tax bills. High profile cases have eroded public trust in how we tax companies. By maintaining the UK’s low corporate tax rate, currently 19%, and reducing it to 17% from 2020, the Chancellor accepts that corporate tax is only of limited relevance in our UK economy. It accounted for around just 7% of UK tax revenues last year.
The Budget announces changes to extend the scope of UK withholding taxes to tax royalty payments in connection with UK sales, even if there is no UK taxable presence. There will be computational and reporting challenges, but this measure may pacify those who feel the UK is not getting enough tax from international digital corporates which generate substantial sales revenues from the UK
Hitesh Dodhi,Superintendent Pharmacist at PharmacyOutlet.co.uk
With a focus on Brexit, housing and investment into digital infrastructure, it was disappointing to see a many healthcare issues overlooked in today’s Budget. The additional £2.8 billion of funding for the NHS in 2018-19 is a undoubtedly a step in the right direction, but it falls short of the extra £4 billion NHS chief executive Simon Stevens says the organisation requires.
What’s more, the Budget lacked substance and specifics; it did little to progress digitalisation in the healthcare sector – an absolute must – while the opportunity to promote pharmacy to play a greater role in delivering front-line services to alleviate the burden on GPs and hospitals was also overlooked. These are both items that should feature prominently on the Government’s health agenda, but the Chancellor did little to address either in today’s announcement.
Jeremy Cooper, Head of Retail Crowe Clark Whitehill:
There is little in this Budget to bring cheer to the struggling retail sector.
The changes to bring future increases in business rates into line with the Consumer Price Index in 2018, two years earlier than previously proposed, is welcome, but is it enough for hard-stretched shop owners?
The National Living Wage will increase for workers of all ages, including apprentices, which is excellent news for lower paid employees. Retailers would not begrudge them this increase, but retail tends to have a higher proportion of lower paid employees and the impact on store profitability and hurdle rates for new stores should not be underestimated.
There is more positive news for DIY, home furnishings and related retailers in the form of the abolition of Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) for first time house buyers. This should help stimulate the first time buyer market and free up the wider housing market which in turn should boost retail sales for DIY and home furnishings retailers from buyers decorating and furnishing their new homes.
Paresh Raja, CEO of bridging specialist MFS
After an underwhelming Spring Budget that completely overlooked the property market, this time around the Chancellor has at least announced some reforms that will benefit homebuyers. While stamp duty has been cut for first-time homebuyers, the amount of money this will save prospective buyers is in reality still limited – the average first-time buyer spends £200,000 on a property; abolishing stamp duty for them will save them just £1,500.
Importantly, homeowners looking to upgrade to another property still face the heavy financial burden of stamp duty, which will ultimately deter them from moving house. I fear this will have significant implications in the longer term, decreasing the number of people moving from their first property purchase, and thereby reducing the number of properties available for first-time homebuyers, and reducing movement in the market as a whole.
Fareed Nabir, CEO and founder of LetBritain
“Having acknowledged the growing number of Brits stuck in rental accommodation, it’s pleasing to see the Government deliver a Budget heavily geared towards the lettings market. With 7.2 million households likely to be in the rental market by 2025, the Chancellor has seized the opportunity to continue with the recent wave of reforms by offering tax incentives for landlords guaranteeing tenancies of at least 12 months. This should hopefully have a trickle-down effect on rental prices, offering more financial manoeuvrability for tenants saving to buy their own house – something the Chancellor has made easier – while also providing additional security for renters.”
Richard Godmon, tax partner at Menzies LLP
We should to see house price increases almost immediately on the back of this announcement. His commitment to building an extra 300,000 homes a year is not going to happen until 2020s, so this measure could lead to market overheating in the meantime.
The removal of indexation allowance will come as a further blow to buy-to-let landlords, many of whom have been transferring their portfolios into companies since interest the restriction rules were introduced. This will mean paying more tax on the future sale of properties.
Now that all sales of UK investment property by non-residents after April 2019 will be subject to UK tax, it effectively means one of the incentives to invest in UK property by non-residents has been removed.
Jason Harris-Cohen, founder of Open Property Group
There was a lot of speculation before the Budget that the Chancellor would reduce or temporarily suspend stamp duty for first-time buyers, in a bid to help young people get on the property ladder. What we got was the complete abolishment of the tax on first-time house purchases of up to £300,000, effective from today, and in London and other expensive areas, the first £300,000 of the cost of a £500,000 purchase by first-time buyers will be exempt from stamp duty. This is arguably the biggest talking point of today’s announcement and as the Chancellor says will go a long was to "reviving the dream of home ownership".
It was equally refreshing to hear that the Government is committed to increasing the housing supply by boosting construction skills and they envisage building 300,000 net additional homes a year on average by the mid-2020s. However, I was surprised that local authorities will be able to charge 100% premium on council tax on empty properties, though I appreciate that this is a further stimulus to free up properties sitting empty and bring them back to the open market to increase supply. Conversely this could result in falling house prices if there is further supply and lower demand following a period of political and economic uncertainty.
What was disappointing, however, was the absence of any mention to reverse the stamp duty change that were introduced in 2016 for buy-to-let and second homes, which is currently deterring people from investing in the private rented sector. The longer it is around the more of a knock on effect it will have on the growing homelessness crisis, a problem the Government plans to eliminate by 2027 - a bold statement from Mr Hammond!
We’d love to hear more of Your Thoughts on Phillip Hammond’s Autumn Budget. Will it benefit Britain and will the reduced growth forecasts have an impact? Let us know by commenting below.
British farmers are being hit by a shortage of migrant workers and are warning a dysfunctional Brexit will have a devastating impact on their industry. They are calling on the government to provide direction and answers on the future of British farming after the UK leaves the European Union. Bloomberg’s Angus Bennett travelled to Kent, in Southern England, to meet the farmers and migrant workers on the front lines of Brexit.
Video by Angus Bennett and Gloria Kurnik
With recent news that the pound took a tumble over the weekend, partly attributed to the future of Theresa May as Prime Minister and the upcoming EU summit, rumours that China is looking to open its finance sector up to more foreign ownership, and updates on the latest trade announcement being teased by US President Trump after he pretty much told Japan they ‘will be the no.2 economy’ here are some comments from expert sources on trade worldwide.
Rebecca O’Keefe, Head of Investing at interactive investor, told Finance Monthly: “European markets have opened relatively flat, with the FTSE 100 the main beneficiary after sterling’s latest fall, as pressure mounts on Theresa May who is struggling to maintain her grip on power. The gravity defying US market has been the driving force behind surging global markets, so investors will be hoping that the Republicans can get their act together and deliver key US tax reform to help support the path of growth.
In sharp contrast to Persimmon’s lacklustre results and a gloomy report from the RICS last week, Taylor Wimpey’s trading update is much stronger and paints a relatively rosy picture of the current housing market. Confirmation of favourable market conditions and high demand for new houses is good, although there are early warning signs that the situation might deteriorate, with slowing sales rates and a drop in its order book. Share prices have already come off recent highs, amid fears that the sector had got ahead of itself and investors will be hoping for more help from the Chancellor in next week’s budget to try and provide a new catalyst for the sector.
Gambling companies have been making out like one armed bandits since the summer, as expectations grow that the Government will compromise on a much higher figure for fixed odds betting terminals than the £2 maximum suggested during this year’s election campaign. However, while betting shops are the focus of attention for politicians, the real action can be found on smartphones and elsewhere – with surging revenues and profits being driven from online betting. Companies who have got their online strategy right are the significant winners and although Ladbrokes Coral has seen a 12% jump in digital revenues, the comparison against online competitors such as bet365 and Sky Bet, who both reported huge revenue growth last week, has left the market slightly disappointed and sent the share price lower.”
Mihir Kapadia, CEO and Founder of Sun Global Investments, had this to say: “The last couple of days have seen two of the big global economies China and Germany report large trade surpluses underlining their robust performance over the year. In contrast, the UK economy has been on a downbeat weakening trend as Brexit and political uncertainties lead to declining economic confidence and slower growth.
Data released last month showed August’s trade deficit at £5.6 billion, and in comparison, today’s data of £3.45 billion for September has been a better than expected improvement, but nevertheless indicative of an additive gap that appears unlikely to be closed anytime soon.
While Brexit uncertainty has weakened the pound against its major peers, it had helped boost exports but in turn has also made imports more expensive. This is the short term “J Curve” effect which is often seen after a devaluation. Over the long term, the weaker pound is perhaps likely to help the trade deficit as exports rise (due to the lower pound and higher growth in the global economy) while import growth slows down due to the slowdown in the UK.”
Failure to start Brexit trade talks at the EU summit in December could lead to “a difficult choice between two opposite policy stances from the Bank of England”, warns the senior investment analyst at one of the world’s leading independent financial services organisations.
deVere Group’s International Investment Strategist, Tom Elliott, is speaking out after the Bank of England (BoE) raised interest rates last week for the first time since 2007, and as senior officials in Brussels say the EU is unlikely to agree to trade talks in December unless the UK offers more concessions.
Mr Elliott comments: “The uncertainty over the UK’s eventual trading relationship with the EU is blamed by some for the weaker economic growth seen since the spring. Investment spending is being deferred or abandoned, with the long term impact being weaker productivity gains and wage growth than would otherwise occur. Sterling may fall victim to this uncertainty, and become a ‘big short’ on foreign exchange markets in December if an EU heads of government summit decides that no progress has been made on the divorce bill.
“They can then refuse permission for the EU negotiators to move on to discuss the post-Brexit trading arrangements, and a possible transition agreement. The UK government needs to show progress on this area, soon, in order to assure British business that an eventual deal will be had.. The longer talks on the future trading relationship are postponed, the greater the risk of no deal being in place by March 2019 when the UK leaves the EU, and the greater the disruption to the U.K economy.”
He continues: “This will put the Bank of England in a difficult spot - should it cut the bank rate to support the economy but risk a further fall in sterling, or raise interest rates further to support the pound? Keeping the currency attractive is important when the UK Treasury has to sell billions of pounds worth of gilts each year in order to support a 3.6 per cent annual budget deficit.
“The BoE will be under intense pressure to ‘support Brexit’ from influential Eurosceptic politicians, who have openly called for the Governor, Mark Carney to be sacked on grounds of his warnings over Brexit, both before and since the referendum.
“This means keeping rates low to help support the economy through the Brexit shock. Politics therefore favours letting the pound take the strain, even though gilt yields may have to rise to attract foreign buyers, increasing the funding costs of the government deficit.
“The Treasury is increasingly seeing Brexit as an exercise in damage control, but has limited fiscal tools at its disposal to support demand should Brexit go badly. There is no money for tax cuts or spending increases. This adds pressure onto the Bank of England to go easy on interest rate hikes.”
Mr Elliott concludes: “The Bank of England has presumably balanced the risks of a rate hike with the overall aim of normalising monetary policy and curbing credit growth, and has concluded that a slight dampening of demand now -while the economy is at least still growing- is better than leaving rates at record low levels that encourage over-borrowing by consumers.
“Brexit complicates setting monetary policy. And the BoE will be pulled in two different directions should the EU summit in December fail to make progress on the Brexit divorce settlement.”
(Source: deVere group)
As expected, Mark Carney and the Bank of England have risen the UK interest rate for the first time in 10 years, stating that: “The time has come to ease our foot off the accelerator”.
The rate has risen from 0.25% to 0.5%, returning it to the same levels it was prior to a drop following the Brexit referendum result in June 2016, a move designed to stabilise the economy during a tumultuous market in the wake of the landmark vote. The MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) voted by a score of 7-2 in favour of an increase, but has sought to curb any major fears of a quick rise and retain a level of cautiousness by stating in its report that, “All members agree that any future increases in Bank Rate will be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent”.
The rate rise has been expected to happen for some time and is seen by many as a direct response to protect British households from creeping inflation. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, is tasked with keeping inflation at a target mark of 2%, however September saw it rise to 3%, its highest figure since 2012.
The rate increase was also announced in tandem with an upgrade on the growth forecast for this year, which has been raised from 1.3% to 1.5%. The projections for 2018 have also been upgraded, and while this may sound promising for those who championed leaving the EU, the Bank of England has been very clear in asserting its position that Brexit is, and will remain, harmful to the UK economy. The report states that Brexit is causing ‘noticeable impact on the economic outlook’, citing the ‘uncertainties associated with Brexit’ and ‘Brexit-related constraints’, as having a detrimental effect on the financial system.
For the average UK citizen, there are some concerns that the cost of borrowing will now increase and therefore negatively impact those applying for mortgages and loans. The move is also expected to affect homeowners on interest only mortgages who have been enjoying low repayments with the potential to increase monthly payments. With nearly 4 million homeowners currently on variable or base-rate trackers, an increase of up to £12 per month could be seen for those with the average repayment loan of around £90,000 on their mortgages. There is also concern that many people who have never seen a rate-rise in their lives will be caught unexpected, and this could further squeeze a population where falling wages and consumer debt are prevalent.
The British pound fell sharply immediately after the announcement, but many analysts are still seeing this as a ‘one and done’ rise and do not expect to see any further changes emanating from the Bank of England until the terms of Britain’s Brexit is defined.
By Simon Black, CEO, PPRO Group
If we suddenly learnt that the world would end tomorrow, someone would make money from the discovery. At very least, to quote Tom Lehrer[1], Lloyds of London would be loaded when they go.
No matter what happens, someone somewhere finds a way to turn a profit. The trick is, being that someone. With Brexit, so much focus has been on the negatives that we think that there’s a danger that opportunities will be missed.
Here’s our guide to having a good Brexit.
E-commerce and cross-border lead generation
The exchange-rate for sterling has fallen so low, that the pound is almost at parity with the euro. For cross-border e-shoppers from the rest of the EU, that turns Britain into a massive bargain store.
With even a minimal effort at promotion, UK merchants can attract price-conscious EU consumers. In fact, UK SMEs saw their international sales rise by an incredible 34% in the last six months of 2016, three times the increase in the first half of the year[2], due to the exchange rate. If ever there was a time to feature the Union Jack accompanied by the words (suitably localised) ‘Brexit bargains’, in your promotions, it’s now.
That’s great, as far as it goes. Everyone wants extra trade even if we’re effectively selling at a discount. But it’s not sustainable and its continuation cannot, in any case, be taken for granted. At some point the pound will rebound or bargain hunters will revert to their previous shopping habits.
So, what to do?
Turn today’s cross-border bargain hunters into loyal repeat shoppers. Invest now in data collection, strategic planning and customer-experience improvements. Use the data you gather on your new customers to engage them and migrate them to localised version of your site. For now, keep them coming back with price-led promotions but over the next year, try to deepen customer relationship, learn their other purchase motivators and give them reasons other than price to keep coming back.
There is no sign of the Eurozone recovery slowing down; in fact, it’s quite the opposite, with the Eurozone economy growing twice as fast as the UK in recent months[3]. And there are already signs, particularly from the automotive sector, that this is releasing pent-up demand. In theory, there’s no reason why UK retailers can’t benefit by servicing this pent-up demand. Successfully doing so — particularly in the face of, for instance, uncertainty over customs arrangements after Brexit — is going to take nerve, commitment, and impeccable customer focus. But it is possible.
FinTech, the City, and a country that loves to borrow, spend, and invest
Brexit threatens a sizable chunk of the UK financial-services industry. Much of the business conducted by UK financial services, most obviously the Euro-clearing markets, relies on access to EU markets. That’s a fact. We can’t wish it away.
But neither Brexit nor the EU are everything. To take a couple of examples, London trades nearly twice as much foreign currency as New York[4], its nearest rival. This trade does not depend on EU markets. Around 60% of the world’s Eurobonds are traded in London[5]. Despite the name, these have nothing to do with the EU and the trade is not fundamentally threatened by Brexit. Similarly, the £60 billion-a-year London market for commercial insurance draws a third of its clients from North America, a third from the UK and Ireland, and a third from the rest of the world put together, including the EU[6].
The UK FinTech scene has the world’s biggest financial centre at its disposal. And if Brexit threatens to erect barriers that will hinder UK firms trading on the continent, the same is true in reverse. UK FinTech s will enjoy privileged access, in geographical and regulatory terms, to the enormous b2b market that the City of London gives them access to.
They will also have privileged access to the UK’s highly competitive retail finance market, worth £58 - £67 billion a year[7]. And there are signs that leaving the EU could help invigorate at least some segments of that market. A recent article in the FT[8] — not by any means a Brexit cheerleader — reported that small-to-medium UK providers of retail banking services are actively looking forward to Brexit in the hope that it will free them from onerous EU regulations designed for huge ‘too large to fail’ banks but now applied to all financial institutions, even smaller ones.
Taken together — along with the ready availability of investment for FinTech start-ups in London, and the UK’s sympathetic regulatory environment — these facts clearly signpost a potential future for the UK as a global B2B and B2C FinTech incubator.
But this won’t happen by itself. Right now, we’re still faced with the threat of a FinTech exodus. To make sure the UK’s FinTech motor doesn’t stall, the British government must work out a transition deal with the EU27 that gives London-based FinTech firms an incentive to keep at least some of their businesses here for long enough to see what opportunities Brexit and a post-Brexit UK could bring.
And as an industry, we need to lobby as hard for that transition as we have for a PSD2 that’s fit for purpose. Recognising that there are profound risks associated with Brexit does not stop us also looking for opportunity in it. Why should it? For as long as the world hasn’t ended, there is still business to be done.
Website: https://www.ppro.com/
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAEmhqdLFs
[2] https://www.paypal.com/stories/uk/open-for-business-paypal-reveals-online-exports-boom?categoryId=company-news
[3] http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/8122505/2-01082017-AP-EN.pdf/940abad8-436d-4758-b9d2-2156173a2c77
[5] https://www.lseg.com/sites/default/files/content/documents/20170105%20Dim%20Sum%20Bond%20Presentation_0.pdf
[7] http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2016/587384/IPOL_BRI(2016)587384_EN.pdf - Page 4 of 12
[8] https://www.ft.com/content/4e2967a4-8991-11e7-bf50-e1c239b45787
The UK’s Banking and Financial sector has experienced a strong quarter, despite ongoing uncertainty caused by the Brexit negotiations, according to figures recently released in the Creditsafe Watchdog Report. The report tracks quarterly economic developments across the Banking and Financial and 11 other sectors (Farming & Agriculture, Construction, Hospitality, IT, Manufacturing, Professional Services, Retail, Sports & Entertainment, Transport, Utilities and Wholesale).
Sales are up 4.19% from Q2, and the number of active companies and new companies have both increased by 5.9% and 8.5% respectively over the same period. This is supported by the rate of company failures, which has dropped by 4.0%. Total employment has also increased by over 1% in Q3.
The research shows a continued return to form for the Banking and Financial sector in terms of these core metrics. However, the financial health of the sector has been hit as the volume of bad debt owed to the sector has increased by 118.8% in Q3, with the average amount of debt owed to companies coming in at £246,318. Suppliers bad debt, the volume owed by the sector, has also seen a big increase of 127.1%.
Rachel Mainwaring, Operations Director at Creditsafe, commented: “While today’s Creditsafe Watchdog Report show signs of optimism for the UK’s Banking and Financial sector, despite the ongoing political and economic uncertainty throughout Europe and beyond, the levels of bad debt seen in Q3 are a serious cause for concern.
“One company, Pearl Finance Co Ltd, is responsible for over £80 million of bad debt owed to other sectors and we can see the potential for contagion if debt spreads across businesses in the UK. With a big increase in bad debt owed both to and by the Banking and Financial sector this quarter, we’ll need to keep a close eye on the industry over the coming months to see if it can rebalance.”
(Source: Creditsafe)
When it comes to financial investment, whether it's in supply chains or your employees, business decisions are an everyday chore. If you add Brexit, hurricanes and fluctuating stocks to the mix, planning for uncertainty can become tedious. Here Lena Shishkina, head of finance, EMEA and APJ at Workday, provides Finance Monthly with some insight into planning for uncertainty.
The level of uncertainty that businesses have to deal with today due to various political, social and economic forces is almost unprecedented. From fluctuating currencies and political leadership to other disruptive events such as Brexit, there are plenty of reasons for a degree of global anxiety. The reality is that the effects of these things are still unknown. Business leaders are in a state of flux, questioning how this instability will affect trading, regulation, policies, and markets, for instance.
This level of uncertainty is impacting the finance world most. Now more than ever striking a balance between executing the day-to-day and future planning is critical. Unfortunately, not everyone has this mastered just yet. Despite the advent of tools such as big data and predictive analytics, recent figures show that 50 percent of businesses cannot create revenue forecasts past the next six months.
When uncertainty strikes, the c-suite tends to revert to requesting more frequent forecasts and adopting a ‘what about now’ mindset. While this tends to be a knee-jerk reaction, finance planning is only effective if it is based on relevant, real-time data.
Expecting the unexpected
It’s probably from personal experience that most financial professionals know that an annual budget can be rendered useless in the space of a few days. This is due to the unexpected nature of market volatility and political changes for instance that can shape the future of companies.
This is why continuous planning is being widely adopted by organisations, as it allows them to have the ability to re-run forecast predictions based on these kinds of changes. And it works: businesses that have already adopted this methodology claim to be almost twice as likely as their peers who haven’t accurately forecast earnings between plus or minus 5 percent.
Another benefit is that this kind of approach can create and develop the authority of the finance department. In fact, the same study found that respondents were three times more likely to report increased stakeholder confidence, and finance leaders were four times more likely to be able to respond more quickly to market disruption.
Despite the clear advantages of this methodology, why do many so companies still choose not to go down this path? A lot of businesses continue to rework forecasting on outdated budgets, which breeds inaccuracies and further trepidation. Financial professionals need to rethink their forecasts and look beyond financial data to ensure their projections are robust, accurate and of the highest quality.
Continuous planning and the importance of non-financial data
Non-financial data has traditionally been left out of forecasting largely because it is not as quantifiable or predictable, but executives can no longer get away with that thinking. A recent report found that executives who make better use of non-financial data are more than twice as likely to be able to forecast beyond a 12-month horizon.
Take workforce costs, for example. This is typically an organisation’s greatest expenditure and relies on much more than just financial data for an accurate forecast. That includes everything from anticipated salary to recruitment plans as it paints a more comprehensive view that teams can then use for an accurate look at the future.
A robust data set is one thing. But being able to adjust forecasts in real-time as changes arise at the last minute is just as vital. This is where continuous planning can be truly valuable as it adds context from across the organisation, helping to involve more stakeholders and providing deeper visibility into plans and real-time revisions. A rolling model means the business is in a much better position to react quickly to external factors and give the organisation the visibility they need when these changes arise.
Innovation is key
In theory, continuous planning is a saviour for financial services professionals. However, the reality is most organisations do not have the infrastructure or technology in place to support it in practice. Embracing new technology is the only way organisations will be able to seamlessly bring together rolling forecasts and non-financial data.
The fragmented way finance teams currently work is stifling operational agility. All too often, they are using a mixture of legacy tools from a variety of vendors, which makes it difficult to integrate data sets and make educated decisions. Organisations can no longer afford to base their decisions on luck; they have to start rethinking their technology and the foundation it’s built on. It is the only way to achieve real transformational change. A visionary CFO and a highly engaged finance team will see that and be well placed to usher in this new era.
Determining the future
The only constant in this world is change. And as this time of uncertainty shows no signs of slowing, continuous planning is the only antidote. The combination of rolling forecasts alongside both non-financial and financial data is a significant step in effectively predicting future business outcomes. As a finance professional, you’ll no longer feel like you’re being asked to gaze into your crystal ball, you’ll finally have the answers.
New report from national law firm Mills & Reeve highlights the defiant ambition of the mid-market despite serious challenges, and demands for sustainable growth finance.
Mid-market businesses remain ambitious and confident in their growth prospects despite an unstable economic landscape, the impact of Brexit and an unsupportive funding environment, according to new research from national law firm Mills & Reeve.
The study, ‘Defying Gravity’ - based on the opinions of 500 leaders of medium-sized businesses in the UK – reveals that 83% of mid-market businesses plan to increase turnover in this financial year (2017/2018) by an average of 22%, and two thirds of leaders aiming to grow (62%) are willing to bet their house on meeting this target. This is not unrealistic, with the new research also revealing that two thirds (66%) of medium-sized businesses grew turnover last year, at an impressive average of 20%.
However, mid-market businesses face serious challenges to growth. Three fifths (59%) of mid-market business leaders do not believe that the economy is strong and stable. Two thirds (64%) of mid-market boards are concerned that there is now a real risk of recession, and that economic uncertainty will disproportionately affect the mid-market (66%).
With single market access “critical” for three fifths (60%) of mid-market businesses, Brexit looms large on leaders’ list of concerns. Three in five (61%) mid-market leaders are concerned that the UK failing to reach an agreement with the EU would cause “significant damage” to their business, and 60% are concerned that regions outside London will be disproportionately affected by Brexit. More than half (55%) of leaders are concerned that implementation of Brexit is a serious threat to their ability to recruit both specialist and low-cost talent.
The external funding needed to supercharge growth is also found to be lacking: almost three in five mid-market leaders (58%) say that their company can’t achieve its growth potential without better long-term finance options. More than half (56%) of business leaders stated that mid-market finance is not “fit for purpose”, with two thirds (63%) believing that the UK funding environment is great for start-ups, but not for mid-market firms.
Claire Clarke, managing partner at Mills & Reeve, comments: “Despite very real challenges, it is encouraging to see mid-market leaders remaining defiantly ambitious about growth, determined to beat market conditions and to hold their position as the driving force of the British economy.
“But these businesses are being hindered in their efforts to realise their ambitions. Accessing growth finance suited to mid-market needs is a significant challenge, and the unstable economic and political landscape is causing some businesses to refrain from making the investment necessary to grow.”
The findings are released today ahead of a series of reports from Mills & Reeve championing the mid-market and exploring the current challenges faced by business leaders.
The research goes on to reveal a perceived lack of support from Government, with two thirds (65%) of medium-sized business leaders frustrated that the Government “keeps presenting obstacles to mid-market growth”. Three-quarters (74%) cite a lack of targeted policy support, with 61% concerned that Brexit will distract Government from supporting regional development and infrastructure.
Jayne Hussey, head of mid-market at Mills & Reeve, adds: “The mid-market is the unsung powerhouse of the UK economy, and we are hopeful that medium-sized businesses can continue to overcome the barriers to growth formed by uncertainty. The events of the recent past may have rocked the nation’s confidence, but the resilience, strength and ambition of mid-market business leaders appears to remain intact.”
(Source: Mills & Reeve)
Joseph Camilleri, Executive Head Business Development & Corporate Services at BOV Fund Services, talks to Finance Monthly about Malta’s fund industry, Brexit and the hurdles that the fund services sector is faced with in a scenario of on-going regulatory developments.
Within the context of a highly regulated fund industry, how is Malta coping in ensuring that it keeps pace with bigger fund domiciles?
I trust we’d all agree that the fund industry is increasingly becoming overcrowded with regulation, well intended as that may be. We’d also agree that such poses challenges to all stakeholders, be they investors, investment managers, service providers and fund domiciles too of course. Malta is in no way an exception to this.
The challenges may seem somewhat bigger and more difficult to address if the domicile is a relatively new and upcoming one; particularly if the domicile has built its fund and fund management industry on the small and medium sized funds and fund managers, as is the case for Malta, which by the very nature of their size, are impacted to a larger extent by the over-regulation in the industry.
Notwithstanding the above statements hold true, Malta has in my view, weathered the storm in a convincing manner. The key word here is “adopting” rather than adapting to new regulation, and ensuring that its pre-emptive stance pays dividends. The island’s positioning as a fund domicile has seen it consolidating its strengths in particular niche areas which it has continued to develop over the past few years. All of this further underpinned by the pro-active mindset of stakeholders (service providers in particular) in ensuring compliance to new regulations through the timely provision of additional services to the industry, in a cost competitive backdrop.
Malta’s fund industry has established itself as a domicile of choice to many start-up hedge fund managers. Its highly competitive package, the pro-business approach and accessibility of Malta’s single regulator, the robust yet flexible regulatory framework for deminimis (out-of-scope) funds in terms of the AIFMD, the efficient process for licensing, as well as the presence of several service providers on the island, within the context of a cosmopolitan lifestyle have and are attracting several investment managers to our shores.
Within the AIFMD realm, Malta too has identified its own niche segments: the past couple of years have been characterised by full scope AIFMs, whether based in Malta or other EU member states, structuring fully compliant AIFs having diverse strategies. Most notable, we have seen a growing number of AIFs being set up investing in real estate and other real assets, we have seen Private Equity funds being set-up, as well as the emergence of loan funds. Thus funds that require depo-lite services, as opposed to fully fledged depositary services, have been very conspicuous in Malta’s development of its fund industry.
The recently introduced Notified Alternative Investment Fund (NAIF) has thereagain been an innovative and positive contributor to the growth of the industry in the AIFMD space. Full scope AIFMs across the EU now can have their fund structures, SICAVs, Contractual Funds, Limited Partnerships, or Unit Trust Funds up and running within 10 working days of notifying the regulator. A far cry from passing…
How do you see the Brexit realities impacting Malta’s fund and fund management industry?
Difficult to tell given that the Brexit realities are still an unknown. The shape of things to come post conclusion of negotiations between the parties is still to be seen. Having said that, we’re already seeing major cities within the EU taking rather aggressive approaches in an attempt to position themselves in time (particularly should all go the hard Brexit way) to attract London-based businesses their way.
To a degree, I tend to think that attempts at unseating London as Europe’s main financial services centre is rather delusional. There’s likely to be a repositioning of course, yet London is London and will remain a major player, not necessarily very different to what it is today.
The way Malta is looking at Brexit is quite different; rather than adopting a vulture approach, as seems to be the case for the other EU contenders for the top spot in financial services, Malta’s approach is a softer one - one that augurs for a strengthening of the legacy relationship between the UK and its former colony Malta.
Malta is in fact in an ideal position to act as a bridgehead for UK-based businesses (and not limitedly to financial services businesses at that) to access the wider EU market.
There are various reasons why Malta sees it differently; apart from the legacy relationship mentioned earlier, there are other realities that are worth mentioning that render the relationship one based on mutual respect and understanding:
- English being an official language of Malta.
-The island’s membership and active participation in the Commonwealth.
-The British business ethics deeply rooted in Malta’s own conduct of business.
-The similarities in the socio-political make-up of the two countries.
It is thus of no surprise that we are seeing London-based operators teaming up with ManCo and Super ManCo platforms in Malta to explore alternative solutions for different Brexit scenarios that would allow them access to the EU market. Others are setting up their own “lean” fund management operations in Malta, as UCITS managers or AIFMs, to carry out the risk management function for their fund vehicles, whereas the day-to-day portfolio management activities are outsourced back to base, in London.
Malta’s way of looking at the opportunities coming out of Brexit are of the win-win sort; and it is precisely this that is elevating Malta’s stature in the eyes of UK-based operators.
What are the major challenges for a company like BOV Fund Services in a scenario of on-going regulatory developments?
There are various facets to regulation: some see regulation as a safeguard to investors, others to the system itself, some see it as an overkill and an unnecessary money drain.
Whichever line one might take, it is indisputable that regulation presents both challenges and opportunities for service providers, particularly fund administration companies. BOV Fund Services is in this space, and it too is not immune to such.
Regulation has predominantly meant additional and extensive reporting. In view that most fund data is held by fund administrators, it follows that the latter are in such scenarios are best placed to provide additional services to funds and their fund managers, thereby enabling these to comply with the newly introduced obligations.
This has been true for AIFM Annex IV reporting, FATCA, CRS and others. So has regulation impacted all fund administrators in the same manner? The short answer to this question is no. There have been winners and losers in the game; the winners where those service providers that ensured a level of preparedness in good time. The ones losing out on the other hand have been the laggards, those that considered the aforementioned regulations as the Managers’ and the funds’ problems. In effect, such regulations place obligations, sometimes onerous ones, of the funds and their managers.
Yet, fund administrators that evaluated the regulations as their draft versions were published, that understood the implications, and that geared themselves up to provide timely solutions in a cost competitive environment, not only ensured that their clients were compliant as from d-day, but they also consolidated the loyalty from their client base as well as created new revenue streams for themselves.
BOV Fund Services is in this second category. It has invariably sought to be ahead of the curve in terms of assessing the likely requirements of its client base emanating from new regulation. It invested heavily in its IT infrastructure and entered into agreements with system providers to automate reporting.
This has ensured that the company consolidate further its market leadership in Malta as the island’s number 1 fund administration firm (in terms of Assets Under Administration as well as number of Malta-based funds administered by the company), within a context of crowded market of 27 fund administration firms operating from Malta.
What has the AIFMD meant to your clients in the alternative space?
Essentially there are three categories of clients that we service, and for whom the AIFMD and its implications came to the fore.
When the initial draft of the AIFMD was published, it was quite evident as of those early days, that the directive had two core outstanding features:
- Albeit purporting to be intended to address systemic risk, it was largely perceived as being an EU protectionist measure, and
- It was bound to negatively impact small-sized alternative fund managers and fund domiciles that catered for this segment of the market.
Malta’s financial regulator, the MFSA, thanks too to the listening ear, lends to the local operators in Malta, wisely decided to defend its territory. As mentioned earlier, Malta had by then attracted a relatively large community of international small and medium sized fund managers to structure their fund vehicles in Malta. It was thus imperative that the goose that laid the golden eggs be safeguarded from the overarching burden that the new regulation was set to bring to the table.
In effect, rather than replacing the old with the new, MFSA introduced a new fund regime, the Alternative Investment Fund rule book, as distinct from the already existing Professional Investor Fund rule book. This latter regulatory platform for alternative funds, with its inbuilt flexibility within a robust framework, had enabled hundreds of fund managers (several of whom small-sized) structure their alternative strategies, ranging from hedge funds, to private equity, real estate, fund of funds, distressed debt, high frequency trading funds to a myriad of others.
It was inconceivable that this segment should be burdened by the heavy regulatory baggage that the AIFMD promised to introduce. In view that the directive’s provisions become mandatory for alternative managers having in excess of Euro 100 million in AUM (leveraged funds), it followed that those below the threshold should be given the opportunity to retain the status quo in terms of the regulation they were subjected to.
Now that the directive has been up and running for a number of years, it is clearly evident that retaining the PIF regime was a wise decision: alternative funds subject to this rule book continue to grow year-on-year.
Back to the three categories:
- The deminimis fund managers and the below threshold self-managed funds were given an option to sign up for the regulation, be subject to all its provisions, and on the upside, benefit from the EU passport. In most cases, they opted to stay put!
- A second category was made up of those that actually “went for it”, driven by one or two factors: the growth potential arising from the passport, and/or the fact that their AUM was just short of the threshold, so it was a question of time for them to adhere to the regulation.
- The third category consisted of those that were captured by the directive due to their respective AUMs (which were already in excess of the threshold). This segment had no other option but to comply, and make the most of it through the passporting rights.
In conclusion, I’d say that Malta’s regulations for the alternative strategies is such that enables acorns to grow into oak trees, without imposing upon them at the early stages of their lives, the rigours of over regulation that the AIFMD seems to be riddled with.
Website: https://www.bovfundservices.com
As part of Finance Monthly’s brand new fortnightly economy and finance round-up analysis, Adam Chester, Head of Economics & Commercial Banking at Lloyds Bank, provides news and opinions on UK and global markets touching on the Bank of England, Brexit and currencies.
The pound fell to an eight-year low against the euro over the past week, pushed by ongoing signs of momentum in the Eurozone and concerns over the outlook for the UK economy.
Sluggish wage growth has also fuelled concerns about the strength of the economy as a whole.
The Office for National Statistics reported that average weekly earnings grew by 2.1% year-on-year in the three months to June - equating to a 0.5% fall in real wages.
While there can be little doubt that the fortunes of the Eurozone have improved, despite Brexit uncertainty, the fall in the pound looks overdone and the UK’s position could now be shifting.
Signs of improvement
The jury remains out on the extent to which Brexit uncertainty is weighing on sentiment, but earlier indications of a sharp slowdown in economic growth have given way to signs of stability.
Undeniably, the economy slowed sharply in the first half of this year. Quarterly GDP growth averaged a below-trend 0.3% across the first six months of 2017, compared with 0.6% in the second half of 2016.
As the third round of Brexit discussions gets underway however, reports including CBI industrial trends, purchasing managers index (PMI), labour market and even retail sales are all showing signs of improvement.
While plenty of downside risks remain, for now, households and businesses are in the main managing to cope with the challenges.
Employment and exports climb
Take the latest employment report, for example.
According to the ONS, total employment rose by a further 125,000 in the three months to June, pulling the unemployment rate down to 4.3% - the joint lowest rate since 1975.
Separately, the CBI reported last week that industrial orders rose this month, approaching the 29-year high seen in June. The trade body stated that a rise in both domestic and export orders was behind this rise, with the latter fuelled by the drop in the pound and the turnaround in the Eurozone’s fortunes.
Improvements didn’t stop there. The latest UK public finances data were also better than expected. July’s public finances were back in the black for the first time since 2002, thanks to surging tax revenues.
The beleaguered retail industry also saw a return to stability. Sales rose by 0.3% in both June and July, though this could prove temporary, as the latest CBI retail trades survey suggests renewed weakness in August.
Brexit and the Bank of England
Despite these signs, Brexit uncertainty still looms large.
At its policy meeting earlier this month, the Bank of England remained studiously agnostic on the implications of Brexit. For forecasting purposes, it assumes a “smooth transition” post March 2019, but makes no judgement about what form the UK’s eventual relationship with the EU may take.
It’s clear, however, that uncertainty continued to weigh heavily on the minds of UK rate-setters when they left the bank base rate unchanged again this month by a margin of 6-2.
Alongside this decision, the bank published its inflation report, containing modest downward revisions to GDP predictions for this year and 2018. Inflation is expected to remain above its target of 2% over the next three years.
Judging by the reaction, these latest communications have been taken as evidence that UK interest rates will remain on hold for a long time.
The markets are not priced for a first quarter-point rise until mid-late 2019, and the rate is expected to be below 1.0% in five years’ time.
Potential rate rise earlier than expected
But this looks overdone.
Market participants seem to have focused on the most dovish aspects of the Inflation Report, ignoring the explicit warning the rate may rise more sharply than the market yield curve expects and forgetting the implications of the ending of the Term Funding Scheme (TFS).
The programme has been in place since last August to help provide cheap finance to the banking system.
It would be odd to increase rates while at the same time mitigating the impact through TFS, so when it ends next February an obstacle to an early rate rise will have been removed.
On balance, the recent scaling back in UK interest rate expectations, and the corresponding impact on the pound, may have gone too far. There remains a significant risk that the first rise comes earlier than the market expects – possibly by early next year.
Much will depend on how Brexit negotiations develop. One thing is certain, the markets will be watching closely for any signs of progress.
With the ups and downs of global uncertainty in today’s markets finding a buyer can prove difficult. Here Finance Monthly hears from Lord Leigh of Hurley of Cavendish Corporate Finance LLP on his five key tips to ensuring a business gives itself the best chance of attracting an overseas buyer.
The UK continues to be one of the most attractive markets for foreign direct investment (FDI) and inbound M&A activity. According to Ernst & Young’s 2017 ‘European Attractiveness Survey’, the UK was named the second most attractive market for FDI while Lloyds Banking Group’s June Investor Sentiment Index revealed that UK investor sentiment remains at near record levels, with overall sentiment up 3.87% compared to the same period last year.
Both these indicators are positive signals for potential overseas buyers of British companies and a fall in Sterling has also helped to make UK businesses more attractive, though the continued robustness of the UK economy and the performance of the corporate sector also underpin healthy M&A activity. Mergermarket reports that in H1 2017, the UK was responsible for 22% of all European M&A inbound activity, with UK activity totalling £46.6bn and Europe totalling $211.1bn.
Despite this encouraging backdrop, uncertainty, largely surrounding the outcome of Brexit, still persists, so it’s important for British businesses to take all the steps they can to ensure they are as attractive as possible to foreign buyers, who typically pay a premium compared to domestic buyers when acquiring a UK company.
The more aware you are of the foreign buyers’ motive for purchasing your business, the more value you will able to demonstrate to the prospect. There are typically four reasons an overseas buyer would be interested in a UK business: it provides access to the British market, or an entryway into European and international markets, it has attractive tech and intellectual property potential, or the business is able to merge with one of the foreign buyers’ existing businesses to generate cost savings and efficiencies. Identifying a buyers’ intention before engaging in the deal process will significantly increase your chances of selling and achieving maximum value for your company.
Although the UK is currently well positioned for FDI, the EY 2017 Attractiveness Survey reveals that a number of respondents think that, in the medium-term, the UK’s attractiveness as an FDI location will deteriorate, with 31% of respondent investor’s worldwide saying they expect this to be the case in the coming three years, although 32% say they expect it to improve. One can assume that this is potentially due to the uncertainty around Brexit and the UK’s access to the European single market.
To counter this scepticism, it is important for businesses to develop a post-Brexit strategy. For companies who do not export outside Britain, they will need to demonstrate that they have the capabilities to survive and grow solely in the UK market. Companies that do export outside of the UK will need to show that they can continue to easily sell their goods in the EU and have potential international markets they can access if selling in the EU becomes more problematic. A good example is the recent sale of smoked salmon producer John Ross Junior, a company with a Royal Warrant, which we advised. The company proved its international capabilities by highlighting the 30 countries they supply and the opportunity for future growth in other regions, which were key factors in the decision of publicly listed Estonian company, PR Foods, to buy the business.
Foreign buyers want to see a highly connected UK business, and having strong networks is key for sealing contracts and fostering growth. Prospective buyers want to be reassured that the company does not have particular reliance on any one customer and should they purchase the business, there will be high retention rate among customers, employees and suppliers.
The extent of the due diligence that the buyer will undertake depends on the sector, the buyer’s existing knowledge of the target company and the laws of that country. English law states ‘caveat emptor’ or ‘buyer beware’, meaning that the buyer alone is responsible for checking the quality and suitability of the company before a final sale is made. Having updated financial statements and a strong finance team to help respond to the likely multiple queries a potential buyer will have, should ensure a smooth and speedy process when engaging with a prospective buyer.
Selecting the right advisor for a sales process is key, especially when an overseas buyer is involved. Compared to domestic M&A, foreign deals demand an understanding of cultural differences, state versus domestic laws, and regulatory approval processes. Engaging an advisor with specialist expertise in your sector, the mid-size market and that has a global reach to find potential acquirers will optimise the sales process and ensure that the deal executed will be the best outcome for your business.
