2020 has been a turbulent year for businesses across the world but as we reached the end of December, there has been some hope for those in the Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) space. Figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that, in the three months to the end of September, the value of deals in which one UK company acquired another rose to £4.4bn. This is an increase of £400m in the April to June quarter and £3.2bn from January to March. Across the same period, the value of deals done in which a company from abroad bought a UK business rose to £2.9bn, up from £2.1bn during the previous quarter.
Globally, the market has shown signs of rapid recovery due to the announcement of the COVID vaccine. In fact, companies across the globe announced almost $40bn worth of deals on the day that Moderna revealed trial data that showed its COVID-19 vaccine was highly effective, a week after similar news from Pfizer and BioNTech. According to the FT, this was a clear sign that chief executives are looking to tap cheap debt or use cash stored away during the crisis to carry out strategic M&A. Markets were also buoyed in the same period due to the conclusion of the US presidential election.
M&A deals have slowed during 2020; a year dominated by a global pandemic with reduced investment flowing towards COVID-specific assets classes such as personal protective equipment (PPE), remote working and learning solutions, and back-office technology and infrastructure for firms moving online. According to S&P Global Platts, in the US during the first three quarters of this year, the industry saw just 81 deal announcements, worth a total of US$7.75b; this is compared to 200 deals worth US$47.05b over the same period in 2019.
Despite a bleak year, the market appears to be surprisingly optimistic. According to a poll of executives and M&A professionals, 87% of respondents said they expect M&A activity involving privately-owned companies to increase in 2021. The poll, conducted by law firm Dykema Gossett PLLC, also revealed that more than seven out of 10 respondents expect to close a deal during the next year and 71% believe that the market will strengthen.
In fact, as we head towards the end of the year and Brexit, along with a recovering global economy, there are reasons to be optimistic for the M&A market, including distressed opportunities, cheap debt, new regulation and expansion into secondary market by global firms.
Part of this strengthening deal flow attitude is due to the broader economic recovery and confidence in the market as a whole. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts the global economy to experience a 4.4% contraction in 2020 and a partial rebound to 5.2% growth in 2021. In Dykema Gossett PLLC’s survey, respondents are optimistic about the economy after the US fell into recession earlier this year. Six in 10 said they hold a positive view of the economy over the next 12 months; 17% hold a negative view, and the remaining 23% held a neutral view.
One strategy is to be aggressive and make acquisitions happen whilst the market is opportune. The other is to sit tight and wait until things normalise.
This is also set to be boosted by a new US President, Joe Biden. In the week of the US election result, share prices were boosted by the largest growth in two months as a Democratic President would result in a major new stimulus package. London’s FTSE 100 closed up by 131 points, or 2.33%, at 5786. Furthermore, all three of the leading barometers of US share prices – the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq – were showing gains on the morning of election day in the US.
The M&A market is not only driven by sentiment but also investment into Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs); a sector that has been hit hard by COVID. However, with a variety of stimulus packages delivered across the globe, large firms have the ability now to take advantage of the environment as we move into 2021. For example, at this moment in time, there are many distressed opportunities. With businesses laying off employees and the unemployment rate in the UK set to hit 2.6 million according to the Bank of England; larger firms have the ability to pick-up intellectual property and infrastructure from struggling firms.
As an expert in helping growing companies secure finance, here are the two approaches that I have seen companies taking and why now is an opportune time M&A.
As an investment banking firm with offices in London and Canada, specialising in M&A, capital transactions and corporate advisory, we are seeing two distinct strategies being utilised amongst our clients.
One strategy is to be aggressive and make acquisitions happen whilst the market is opportune. The other is to sit tight and wait until things normalise.
The former option is proving to be a popular one and there is a strong case for making acquisitions during this COVID-19 induced downturn in the economy. There are five reasons why companies should be considering acquisitions as a growth strategy during this COVID economy.
Acquiring during a downturn has historically produced greater total shareholder returns (TSR). A recent study performed by EY and Capital IQ indicates that companies making acquisitions that totalled 10% or more of their market cap in the 2008 downturn created 5% more TSR over three years than those who did not.
Done properly, strategic acquisitions that serve as a platform for long-term success via revenue, customer and asset growth, will provide the acquirer with the ability to capture above-market returns when market conditions begin to stabilise and grow.
When using debt to finance an M&A transaction, it becomes more affordable when interest rates are low. As I write this, the Bank of England’s base rate is at 0.1%, which means debt financing in the UK has never been cheaper. This low-interest-rate environment has a wide number of implications, the majority of which I will not get into, however, it does translate into a higher capacity for acquirers to service debt, thereby making M&A deals more feasible from affordability, size and aggregate basis.
Using the financial crisis of 2008 as the most recent comparison to what we face today, M&A valuations decreased by approximately 27% during that time. As such, companies making acquisitions during this period observed substantial discounts to market value. When companies, divisions and assets can be purchased for below-market pricing it creates immediate value for the acquirer.
According to the United States Small Business Administration, 90% of businesses fail within two years after being struck by a disaster. When we compare this to the economic impacts of COVID-19, it is certain that many businesses are going to be irreparably damaged. Furthermore, businesses that fail to adopt new technologies and ways of operating in this environment will only fall further behind. As a result, companies and ownership groups who have been negatively impacted by COVID are likely to be open to acquisitions, which can likely be acquired with favourable terms and valuations.
Having excess liquidity on the balance sheet without effective utilisation does not create increased shareholder returns. Therefore, when companies are sitting on excess liquidity it is important to ensure cash is utilised in a manner that is going to generate above-market shareholder returns such as strategic M&A transactions at below-market valuations.
For companies that have confidence in the post-COVID recovery dynamics of their industry and are looking to add strategic value, the time is now to make acquisitions.
Nearly €6 billion of EU share dealing was moved away from London on Monday as the effects of Brexit compelled equities trading to shift to EU cities, the Financial Times reported.
Trading in equities for the likes of Deutsche Bank, Santander and Total moved to exchanges in mainland capitals – primarily Madrid, Paris and Frankfurt. London’s Euro-dominated share trading hubs, including Cboe Europe, Aquis Exchange and Turquoise, shifted to newly established venues in the EU. The volume amounted to about a sixth of all equity business on European exchanges on Monday.
The change came abruptly for London investors, who were previously able to trade shares in Europe across borders without restrictions. Now, EU-based banks and asset managers will be required to use a platform inside the bloc for Euro share trading.
The shift in equity trading is far from the only effect that Brexit is set to have on London markets. The Brexit deal agreed before Christmas does not cover financial market access, with EU regulators refusing to recognise the bulk of the UK’s regulatory systems as “equivalent” to its own.
Temporary measures were put in place before the exit to allow UK financial firms to use venues in the EU.
“The FCA continues to view the agreement of mutual equivalence between the UK and EU as the best way to avoid disruption for market participants and avoid fragmentation of liquidity in DTO products,” the FCA said, adding that it will consider by 31 March “whether market or regulatory developments warrant a review of our approach.”
[ymal]
Also on Monday, EU regulators withdrew the registration of six UK-based credit rating agencies and four UK trade repositories, compelling EU companies to use EU-based entities for information on derivatives and securities financing trades.
Paresh Raja, founder and CEO of Market Financial Solutions, offers Finance Monthly his predictions for the UK property market in the new year.
2020 has been, by far, one of the most impactful years of the last couple decades. COVID-19 has had a sizeable impact on the world economy, national governments, and health systems around the globe. No industry, nation, or continent has been exempt from the virus’s economic and epidemiological affects, and we are all now beginning to understand the long-lasting changes that have been brought about by the pandemic.
Despite all of these challenges, it is important not to let these developments overlook the successes of 2020. While some industries have struggled, other sectors like property have been able to quickly recover. In fact, one could argue the real estate market is the strongest it has been since the EU referendum in June 2016.
In my mind, the positive performance of bricks and mortar will continue in 2021. As such, now is an ideal time to take a step back and consider just how investors and prospective buyers can take advantage of property investment over the coming 12 months.
Of all the positive developments witnessed in the UK this year, the ability of the real estate market to sustain a consistent rise in transaction numbers and house prices should be applauded. However, it was necessary for the market to also recover from the initial disruption caused by the first lockdown.
Obviously, property professionals were concerned during this initial stage of the pandemic; with the UK government actively dissuading people from moving home. Lenders retreated from the market, and this resulted in buyers turning to specialist finance providers to complete on sales and prevent existing transactions from collapsing.
Of all the positive developments witnessed in the UK this year, the ability of the real estate market to sustain a consistent rise in transaction numbers and house prices should be applauded.
In May, the government announced that people could once again move home, and that those who worked in the property sector could go back to facilitating transactions. However, in a bid to further incentivise buyers and sellers back to the market, in July the government offered the real estate sector another helping hand.
8 July saw the introduction and implementation of the stamp duty land tax (SDLT) holiday. This means that buyers could now save up to £15,000 when purchasing a new property in England or Northern Ireland. Those who were skittish about completing a property transaction during a pandemic were incentivised back to the market, resulting in a new wave of transactional activity which has been maintained up until today.
Transaction numbers began to grow, and house price indexes recorded a rise in the value of British property for the first time since the 2016 EU referendum. Nationwide, Halifax and Rightmove recorded house price growth between January and November 2020 of +6.5%, +7.6% and +5.5%, respectively.
However, although buyers were keen to take advantage of the SDLT holiday, another obstacle stood in the way of many. In a bid to minimise risk exposure, mainstream lenders are still hesitant when it comes to lending. Some have tightened their lending criteria; others have taken financial products off the shelves, and it is being reported that the time it is taking to deploy loans is increasing.
There is clear buyer appetite for property, and I believe this will be the case so long as the SDLT holiday remains in play. For this reason, property investors and brokers must familiarise themselves with all their finance options, looking beyond mainstream lenders and mortgage providers.
A survey from September commissioned by Market Financial Solutions found that 52% of the homeowners were keen to take advantage of the SDLT holiday but were put off by the increased likelihood of being denied the necessary financing.
[ymal]
Prospective buyers whose transactions were at risk of collapsing from a delay in the deployment of their mortgage have, in turn, been looking to alternative lenders. These lenders typically have access to in-house credit lines and can tailor loans to meet the unique circumstances of each buyer. As a result, specialist finance products such as bridging loans can be deployed within a matter of days.
As we enter into 2021, I can only imagine that this trend will continue. The scheduled end of the SDLT holiday on 31 March, combined with the implementation of an overseas-buyer 2% SDLT surcharge on 1 April, means there is likely to be a rush from buyers looking to complete on transactions before these dates.
From reviewing their performance this year, there is a risk that mainstream lenders will struggle to ensure that financing is deployed in time to finalise transactions before these two deadlines. As such, there is a growing case for prospective buyers to seek out mortgage alternatives, such as fast loan solutions.
Looking to the coming 12 months, it is clear that property investment will play a defining role supporting the post-pandemic recovery of the UK economy. The SDLT holiday has been a success, and there is clear buyer appetite for bricks and mortar. For this reason, it makes sense for buyers and brokers to also familiarise themselves with alternative loan options. Doing so will ensure they can confidently complete on transactions without delay.
More than 30 countries have imposed travel bans on the UK after a new strain of COVID-19 – which may be as much as 70% more infectious than the original strain – was detected in the country. Nations closing their borders include France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Belgium and Israel.
Some of the travel bans imposed on the UK will last for 48 hours as leaders formulate plans to contain the spread of the mutant COVID-19 strain, while others are set to last until the end of January.
The news has caused immense disruption to accompanied UK freight, with the immediate future uncertain for the 10,000 lorries that pass through Dover each day. British supermarket group Sainsbury’s warned on Monday of fresh produce shortages if transport between the UK and Europe is not quickly restored.
The FTSE 100, London’s blue-chip index, fell as much as 2% on the open with British Airways owner International Airlines Group and Rolls-Royce down 16% and 9% respectively. As much as £33 billion was wiped out from the index’s shares.
Germany’s DAX fell 2.3%, France’s CAC 40 fell 2.4%, and the pan-European Stoxx 600 fell 1.8%, with travel and leisure stocks taking the brunt of the sell-off.
While the FTSE’s losses fell to 1.1% by the end of the first hour of trading, the impact on sterling was more extreme. The pound, which last week reached a two-year high, plunged as much as 2% to $1.3259 and 1.6% to €1.0864.
[ymal]
The impact on the pound was aggravated by continued uncertainty as to whether the UK will secure a Brexit deal ahead of the end-of-year deadline, after which existing trade stopgaps with the EU will no longer remain in effect.
The value of the pound sank precipitously on Friday, falling by more than 1% against the euro and the dollar after UK prime minister Boris Johnson’s warning on Thursday that a no-deal Brexit remained a “strong possibility”.
Sterling fell 1.3% against the euro to €1.089 and against the dollar to $1.3204 in early London trading.
The pound has been under continuous pressure since Wednesday, when Johnson and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that “significant differences” were yet to be bridged after trade negotiations in Brussels.
The UK and EU are currently deadlocked over questions of their post-Brexit relationship, with main sticking points including competition rules and fishing rights in UK waters. The two sides have set a deadline of Sunday to reach an agreement and prevent a “no-deal” scenario that would likely cause economic chaos.
"We need to be very, very clear there's now a strong possibility that we will have a solution that's much more like an Australian relationship with the EU, than a Canadian relationship with the EU," Johnson said. Unlike Canada, Australia does not have a comprehensive trade deal with the EU, and most of its trade is subject to tariffs.
However, the UK as a nation conducts far more trade with the EU – around 47% of its overall trade compared with Australia’s 15%.
“With the UK now looking like it’s hurtling towards a no-deal Brexit, investors should adopt the brace position for swings in sterling and shares in domestic focused companies,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
[ymal]
Whether or not a deal is achieved, the UK’s temporary trade arrangements with the EU will expire on 31 December.
A surge of freight volumes has caused gridlock in UK ports, and the government has been warned by port operators that further disruption could be on the way once new Brexit checks come into force.
Felixstowe, the UK’s biggest deep-sea port that handles 40% of the country’s container trade, has been handling around 30% more goods than usual as businesses have rushed to replenish stock after the end of the recent England-wide lockdown and ahead of the final days of the Brexit transition period. The disruption has also been felt in other major ports including Southampton and London Gateway, impacting several industries.
Shortages of essential products like washing machines and fridges have been reported by several high street retail chains. Builders are also running short on tools and supplies, with Builders Merchants Federation CEO John Newcomb describing the ports as a “major issue” for members.
“There appears to be an increasing issue getting products through ports,” Newcomb said. “Rather than taking a maximum of one week to unload, it is taking up to four.”
Elsewhere, Honda was forced to close its 370-acre factory in Swindon – its largest plant in Europe – which operates a “just in time” manufacturing supply chain. As the punctual arrival of goods is essential to the continuity of its production line, congestion at ports left the factory unable to function.
From 1 January, UK exporters and lorries will be subject to new checks on agricultural and animal products at EU ports, which logistics industry heads fear will disrupt mainland imports. Equally concerning are the health and safety checks that the UK plans to impose on EU imports, including food, potentially causing shortages.
[ymal]
In a letter to cabinet office minister Michael Gove in November, British Ports Association CEO Richard Ballantyne warned of a “severe impact” on trade and essential supplies.
“Some ports are being told by customers that these volumes of interventions could ‘kill off’ particular trades,” Ballantyne wrote, raising fresh-cut flowers and salad and meat supplies for supermarkets as some of the most at-risk areas.
Paul Marcantonio, Executive Director for the UK & Western Europe at ECOMMPAY, offers Finance Monthly his predictions for open banking and the fintech sector in 2021.
The UK leads the charge in open banking; 2019 bore witness to a surge of growth in the country’s open banking ecosystem, when UK open banking hit one million users, regulated providers hit 204 and there were 1.25 billion API calls. It is evident that open banking has played a significant role in consolidating London’s place as a global leader in the fintech industry, comparable only to New York. With Brexit looming, there are many unknowns on the road ahead for UK businesses and their ability to deliver open banking services to the wider EU market after 31 December. Will open banking be affected by Brexit? And what is the outlook for the UK fintech sector in the new year?
Many companies are worried about maintaining the smooth digital experience that the modern consumer now prioritises post-Brexit. Looking ahead, UK businesses will lose their ‘passporting’ rights to do business across the EU, with organisations in the EU suffering similar barriers when seeking to operate in the UK. To overcome this barrier, many firms have created bases in the EU, while companies are also applying to the FCA for temporary permission to operate in the UK.
In order to minimise the disruption to open banking services post-Brexit, the FCA has said that third-party providers (TPPs) will be able to use an alternative to eIDAS certificates to access customer account information from account providers, or to initiate payments. eIDAS certificates of UK TPPs will be revoked when the transition period ends on 31 December. This means that TPPs have a compliant way to access customer information and ensures any changes as the UK leaves the EU will be smooth.
Businesses are having to audit their suppliers, as well as their payment service providers, to ensure they have all the necessary licenses to operate in the EU. Many companies are also building separate EU entities so that they can function in the EU under any Brexit agreement.
Many companies are worried about maintaining the smooth digital experience that the modern consumer now prioritises post-Brexit.
The role of open banking will only increase after Brexit, since the open banking agenda cannot be achieved by existing major banks. Open banking allows banking services to digitise so that consumers gain access to more choice than ever before, and extends the market to new entrants able to offer products and services that banking incumbents do not.
Furthermore, regulatory intervention serves to foster competition in the finance industry and is evidently necessary. The EU Payment Services Directive 2 (PSD2) was brought in during September 2018, and brought open banking requirements in across the EU, going further than the Retail Markets Investigation Order 2017 (CMA Order) in the UK which mandated that the biggest banks provide customers with the ability to share data with authorised APIs. The CMA Order revealed how regulation can motivate banks to modernise their services, but PSD2 gives consumers more choice and protection in opening up payments to third parties so they can access a variety of options when deciding how to pay and with whom to share their data.
Consequently, PSD2 will be a crucial mechanism for the UK financial services industry in order to remain competitive in Europe and across the world. The UK will therefore need to ensure it complies with EU regulations if it is to cement its position as a leader in open banking and continue to let the sector thrive. This means the UK is likely to align with EU regulation where it meets the needs of its own internal market, and is predicted to use regulation as a blueprint for its own but adjusted to meet its separate needs.
Regardless of the nature of the UK’s relationship with the EU, many experts suggest the UK open banking standard is broader than the EU’s PSD2, and therefore has potential to be utilised as a blueprint for other countries worldwide. Although the route forward for open banking is not clear, what is evident is that open banking technology will carry on driving innovation and competition within the financial services industry, with the consumer able to access more convenience and choice.
[ymal]
The UK will make routes to economic growth a priority, which means open banking must play a major part in this. After the UK agrees technical standards and governance, open banking can present a competitive advantage via open APIs and enable the fintech sector to benefit from sustained growth into 2021 and onwards.
The modern consumer wants efficiency, with services and products on demand. As such, open banking must be looked to when seeking to cater to the consumer. For example, cross-border payments, innovation around APIs, and automation, are all enabling companies to simplify complex payment processes, and make the experience quicker and easier, as well as allowing for easy scaling.
Payment solutions such as ECOMMPAY’s utilise open banking technology to enable consumers to initiate payments to merchants without the need for debit or credit card transactions, and are crucial in expediting efficient payments within and across borders, customised according to localised requirements.
Brexit has been on the horizon for several years now, allowing businesses time to establish contingency plans. As long as companies have invested wisely in their payment infrastructure, they will be in a good place to ensure sustainable growth for years to come.
Big Four accountancy firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) plans to sell its fintech unit amid mounting scrutiny on its potential conflicts of interest within the sector.
The unit, eBAM, uses PwC-developed technology to automate regulatory risk analysis for around 10 major London-based finance firms. It is set to be acquired by its management and rebranded as LikeZero in a deal backed by UK-based private equity firms Souter Investments and Manfield Partners.
Michael Lines, PwC’s former head of contract solutions, will become CEO of LikeZero. Speaking with Financial News, he said that the unit’s sale was prompted by regulations limiting the services that Big Four firms could provide to the financial institutions and listed companies they audit.
Specifically, restrictions introduced by the Financial Reporting Council – the UK audit watchdog – prohibit PwC from selling its own technology to their audit clients. The FRC also prohibits non-audit PwC clients from continuing to use PwC-developed technology if they become customers of the firm’s audit business.
“In the current environment, PwC [is]... not really the right home to turn LikeZero into a proper global business,” Lines said.
In 2016, the FRC introduced measures restricting Big Four firms from providing audit clients with fintech solutions as part of an initiative to reduce conflicts of interest in the financial services sector. It built on these measures in 2019 by banning auditing firms from providing certain clients, including banks and insurers, with advisory services such as remuneration and tax advice. The move was intended to strengthen auditor independence following a number of scandals, including the collapse of department store chain BHS and outsourcer Carillion.
[ymal]
Chris Biggs, Partner at Theta Global Advisors, commented on the announcement: "This announcement is another move by a Big Four firm to realign its business model with the FRC regulations to prevent a conflict of interest with its auditing clients.”
“The global pandemic has shone a light on the practices of the Big Four and their interests in the auditing and non-auditing space. Now, they are beginning to sell-off businesses that could be deemed to go against regulations and this is unlikely to be the final announcement in the space.”
eBAM’s technology allows financial institutions to automatically search complex legal documents potentially thousands of pages long for risks that could arise from significant regulatory events, such as Brexit.
The value of the deal is not yet known, and is set to be announced later today.
Car production in the UK fell to its lowest level for 25 years during September, according to new figures released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
A mere 114,732 cars were built by UK factories over the course of the month, around 6,000 (or 5%) less than in September 2019. The slump reflects general consumer uncertainty as new lockdown measures are imposed across the country, and as the UK approaches 31 December and the possibility of leaving the EU without first establishing a free trade deal.
Exports in September also declined 9.7% to 87,533 units, around 9,500 fewer vehicles sold overseas year-on-year. Overall, UK car production has fallen 35.9% behind levels seen in 2019. Car plants are forecasted to make fewer than 885,000 cars during 2020, marking the first time that production volumes will have fallen below one million since 2009.
“These figures are yet more grim reading for UK Automotive as coronavirus continues to wreak havoc both at home and in key overseas markets,” SMMT CEO Mike Hawes said in a statement.
“With the end of transition now just 63 days away, the fact that both sides are back around the table is a relief but we need negotiators to agree a deal urgently,” Hawes continued. “With production already strained, the additional blow of ‘no deal’ would be devastating for the sector, its workers and their families.”
One positive sign revealed by the September data was an uptick in battery-electric vehicles. Production of BEVs was up 37% from September 2019, with over three-quarters being exported.
[ymal]
However, the boom in BEV production could yet be short-lived if no free trade deal with the EU is agreed upon. SMMT noted that, if the UK were to be subject to the WTO’s standard tariffs of 10%, the cost of UK-made electric cars exported to the EU would increase by an average £2,000 per vehicle.
Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM, provides Finance Monthly with his insight into how the balance of markets and currencies may shift as December looms.
Brexit negotiations recently risked falling off the cliff edge as political posturing reached new heights. In the lead-up to the EU Leaders Summit on 15 October, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the UK would stop negotiations outright if no credible progress was being made. Of course, in such a scenario, this would then open the door to a no-deal Brexit potentially unfolding.
The British pound has certainly been bearing the brunt of these Brexit worries throughout 2020, with sterling often falling to prices not consistently seen since the 1980s.
However, contrary to the forecasts of some commentators, talks have now advanced, and to put it in the words of EU officials: “intensified”. Those who believed a deal could be struck often reflected on how the initial withdrawal agreement was only agreed to mere weeks before the end of 2019, and it seems the UK government seeks to replicate such last-minute compromises as the final Brexit hurdle approaches.
So, after much grandstanding and posturing, daily talks have begun in an attempt to solidify a deal within three weeks, allowing the minimum amount of time needed to implement a post-Brexit trading relationship before 31 December.
Investors and traders must remain vigilant and aware of all the possibilities on the horizon. That’s why now is an ideal time to consider these possibilities and the impact they could have on the pound and financial markets more generally.
Investors and traders must remain vigilant and aware of all the possibilities on the horizon.
At the moment, it is still possible for a deal to be agreed upon by London and Brussels. Looking beyond the political rhetoric and grandstanding on display from both sides of the channel, a no-deal Brexit is not an ideal outcome for either parties. Of all the reasons, the sheer uncertainty and potential disruption that could be caused are of top concern.
So, if an agreement is made, this is expected to have an immediate impact on the value of the pound. We could see the pound instantly jump to $1.35 against the dollar, especially if the UK retains the same level of Single Market access as enjoyed previously. With goods still able to freely move between the UK and its European neighbours, a fruitful deal would dispel the long-standing uncertainty that has overshadowed UK economic forecasts since 2016. Sterling would undoubtedly benefit massively from the lifting of this worry from the minds of investors.
However, a final breakdown of negotiations and a no-deal Brexit is still something to be considered seriously. This outcome would likely incur an immediate devaluation of the pound to approximately $1.20, with the potential to fall further as the logistical issues of the UK’s new import/export reality are fully realised.
The third outcome, an extension of the withdrawal period and the continuation of negotiations, would likely provide a small boost to sterling’s value but not change the weekly volatility we’ve seen from the pound throughout 2020. Admittedly, such an outcome would require a re-ratification of the withdrawal agreement and signing off from all 27 EU state leaders who, given the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, may not be inclined to allow Brexit to distract from other pressing concerns for another year.
Regardless of if a deal is agreed upon or not, however, there will be other factors that could potentially affect sterling’s value in the foreign exchange markets. From geopolitics to COVID-19, I believe it is vital for investors to stay abreast of other unfolding trends that are affecting currency values in 2020.
We could see the pound instantly jump to $1.35 against the dollar, especially if the UK retains the same level of Single Market access as enjoyed previously.
The recent jump in the pound’s value as a result of Brexit talks resuming in earnest was accompanied by a drop in the dollar’s value. This was seen as a consequence of stalling US Congressional talks regarding a COVID-19 relief package. Potentially more impactful for the dollar, though, is the upcoming US presidential election. Regardless of which candidate wins, a contested election – in which a candidate questions the validity of the results – could see the dollar’s value rapidly rise in risk off flows. The USD has been acting as a safe haven currency during the COVID-19 crisis and any potential of a Trump win would be seen as USD positive as US protectionist policies would look set to continue. However, the medium-term pressure on the USD favours a selling bias on record QE levels with interest rates set to remain low until 2023, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest minutes. If a Brexit deal is secured around the same time, some further GBP/USD upside could be encouraged by outflows from the USD.
Looking to the Bank of England (BoE), another potential change in sterling’s value could come as a result of negative interest rates. BoE governor Andrew Bailey has repeatedly confirmed such a policy is ‘in the BoE’s toolbox’ since August, demonstrating that this could help spur the country’s post-pandemic economic recovery. Thankfully for those unconvinced by this controversial policy, BoE deputy governor Dave Ramsden this week reassured investors that it was still not yet the ‘right time’ for such measures to be introduced.
In summary, there are multiple ways the value of the sterling could be affected by geopolitical events this year. Volatility remains rife across global currency markets, and there is no indication of this volatility disappearing anytime soon.
This is especially relevant for investors, as research commissioned by HYCM earlier this year demonstrated that cash savings have become the premier asset class for those concerned about market uncertainty. Of the 900 investors surveyed, a massive 78% held cash savings, as opposed to the 48% with stocks and shares and 38% with property.
[ymal]
So, for such investors with liquid-asset-heavy portfolios, keeping informed regarding the UK’s geopolitical situation is paramount for avoiding a sudden portfolio devaluation. Or, conversely, one should consider alternate safe-haven assets that also allow for hedging against uncertainty, such as gold, silver, copper or cryptocurrency, without the risk of long-term devaluation through basic monetary inflation.
Regardless of one’s specific strategy, investors and traders would do well to ensure they keep a level, informed head when approaching financial decisions in 2020. Despite any future potential uncertainty, I firmly believe there are still great investment opportunities to be found as the UK begins its transition outside of the EU. The challenge is finding them.
High Risk Investment Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. For more information please refer to HYCM’s Risk Disclosure.
Lee McDarby, Managing Director, Corporate Foreign Exchange and International Payments at moneycorp, offers Finance Monthly his advice for SMEs and corporates looking to keep their financial requirements stable as they expand.
With Brexit on the horizon, and COVID-19 likely to be around for a little while yet, it’s more important than ever that businesses across the UK have access to experts, and know that they can access their money at any time, wherever they are in the world. In the past decade, the payments sector has moved at an increasingly fast pace. With this continuing to develop, there’s a need to further drive innovation that supports financial inclusion for all corporates, SMEs and individuals, to enable international success.
If you’re currently looking at expanding your business to different markets, or adapting your supply chains, and thus payment routes, it’s important that your banking partner can take the stress out of your financial requirements, enabling you to focus on elevating your business. So, what should you be on the lookout for when it comes to your banking and FX needs?
The multi-currency IBAN supports British businesses looking at international expansion. We know that some traditional banks require you to open multiple bank accounts for different currencies – bringing an increasing amount of hassle to the simple act of receiving a payment. It can also take months to open multiple euro and/or dollar accounts, so a modern multi-currency IBAN is the hassle-free and significantly simpler option.
With one multi-currency IBAN, businesses can receive international payments in varying currencies across the globe. Supporting UK corporates to enhance their supply chain and take their business to the next international step in their global expansion.
With one multi-currency IBAN, businesses can receive international payments in varying currencies across the globe.
When choosing a provider for your payments and foreign exchange needs, it’s important to ensure it has safeguards in place to protect your funds. There are a number of specifics you can look out for to ensure the security of your accounts. These include:
Customer service is key when it comes to the relationship between a business and a bank. While it is imperative that customers have 24/7 access to their account regardless of where they are in the world, talking to a person at the other end of the phone is just as important.
While our society has moved to be digital-first, when there’s an issue, the first thing the customer wants is to speak to someone. As such, access to a support team, across a multitude of channels, is irreplaceable when you need it most. To support all of your customers across the entire spectrum, it’s imperative that customer services are multi-faceted.
Varying customer needs are echoed in the diverse range of Application Programming Interface (API) solutions. For an SME, corporate, or individual trading in various currencies across the globe, a seamless API that integrates ease of user experience, along with speed of delivery is crucial. However, one API doesn’t fit all.
[ymal]
At moneycorp Bank, we’ve been able to seamlessly align the agility of fintech with substantiative banking networks to create bespoke API solutions, dependent on the client requirements. In addition, the central API endpoints built as part of the programming allow clients to have access to the core banking facilities on a multi-currency wallet, peer-to-peer facilities for instant transfers, global and local beneficiary validation, view balances, 24/7 multi-bank dealing, international payment and transactional and statement capabilities as standard.
Having a banking system that offers API integration gives you access to an array of benefits that leave you with more time to invest into your business. It also gives customers the capability to monitor exchange rates and automate conversions at a desired value, putting FX hedging tools right in the palm of their hands.
Fundamentally, whilst we are currently navigating extraordinary times, there are also opportunities afoot for UK businesses to look at expansion. At moneycorp Bank, we believe that by picking the right partner for their payment needs, businesses can assemble best-in-class services when it comes to technological advancements in the sector, security, and customer service – without needing to trade one for the other. This in turn, will allow companies to start a new journey on the international stage, putting their best financial foot forward.
The value of the pound dropped on Thursday as COVID-19 lockdown measures were reimposed across the UK and a key deadline arrived in Brexit talks.
The pound fell against the dollar and euro around noon on Thursday. Pound sterling fell 0.4% against the euro and 0.7% against the dollar, reaching €1.1025 and £1.2921 respectively.
The currency’s decline followed after UK health secretary Matt Hancock confirmed that restrictions would be increased in multiple regions of the UK from Saturday onwards. Most notable was the announcement that London would be upgraded to “Tier 2” restriction status in order to curb the continued spread of COVID-19, a move that is likely to impact major businesses in the area.
Under Tier 2 restrictions, separate households are banned from mixing indoors. Though pubs and restaurants will be permitted to remain open, the increased restrictions will likely have a significant impact on demand; Altus Group’s head of UK property tax, speculated that the measures “could be the death knell” for the more than 10,000 bars, pubs and restaurants in London.
The pound also suffered from investor attention turning towards Brexit negotiations. Last month, UK prime minister set 15 October as a deadline to reach a trade deal with the EU, pledging to walk away from the negotiations if an agreement could not be reached beforehand.
[ymal]
However, some investors remain confident that the passing of the deadline will not spell the end for a potential deal. “In our view, neither the UK prime minister’s 15 October deadline nor the European Commission’s 31 October deadline constitutes a hard stop on Brexit negotiations,” wrote Goldman Sachs economist Adrian Paul in a letter to clients on Thursday.
Though the pound gained around 1% against the dollar and euro on Wednesday, its gains were later reversed as French president Emmanuel Macron took a hard stance on EU fishing states retaining access to the UK’s waters.
