Despite the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) announcing a “welcome lift in business confidence” at the start of 2020, the Government can’t afford to neglect the needs of SME businesses, the backbone of the UK economy.
We hear from Richard Godmon, tax partner at accountancy firm Menzies LLP.
With many UK businesses trading internationally, certainty surrounding future trading arrangements with the EU and the rest of the world is urgently required. However, if this can’t be delivered in the short-term, then the Chancellor must step up to the plate and provide support in the form of clear fiscal incentives and allowances, to help businesses to improve their cash position and facilitate investment.
Among the Budget announcements, tax specialists at the firm are urging the Chancellor to confirm that the rate of R&D relief that large companies can claim under the Research and Development Expenditure Credit (RDEC) scheme will be increased by one % (from 12 to 13 %). The Chancellor should also take the opportunity to extend the scope of the scheme to include costs for investment in cloud computing and big data analytics.
Further certainty is needed surrounding the Annual Investment Allowance, which is currently set at £1 million but is expected to revert to £200,000 from 1 January 2021.
Investment requires confidence, and this can’t happen in a climate of uncertainty. Businesses need to know what is happening to the AIA so they can understand the cost of new plant and machinery and invest in their growth plans. The Chancellor could address this by either increasing the allowance or extending the current limit until at least the end of 2022.
Alternatively, if a blanket increase in the AIA limit is considered too costly, the Chancellor could select specific areas of capital expenditure, which might qualify for enhanced tax relief (say, of up to 110 % of cost) – for example, investments in robotics, AI systems, data integration, 3D printers and other value-driving tech.
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This Budget may see the end of Entrepreneurs’ Relief (ER), which is intended to encourage business investment by providing a favourable rate of Capital Gains Tax (CGT) to business owners on the disposal of all or part of their business. The relief, which saves business owners an estimated £2.2bn per year, may be under threat following publication of a report suggesting that it may not be boosting entrepreneurialism as intended.
This Budget may see the end of Entrepreneurs’ Relief (ER), which is intended to encourage business investment by providing a favourable rate of Capital Gains Tax (CGT) to business owners on the disposal of all or part of their business.
While it would be a big step for the Government to completely remove the idea of rewarding owners and investors for risking their capital, we may see reform of the relief, designed to reduce the tax cost. This might involve reducing the £10m lifetime allowance, or limiting access to new businesses, or those who reinvest their sale proceeds within a limited window.
We hope that any restrictions to ER will be offset by measures to enhance incentives for start-ups and growth businesses. This would continue to communicate the message that Britain is open for business, helping organisations to plan their long-term investment strategy.
The Government is also expected to deliver a final decision regarding the controversial UK Digital Services Tax, and there is still time to soften its impact or even defer it altogether. If it goes ahead, the tax could impact UK competitiveness significantly.
It’s important to bear in mind that the Digital Services Tax would operate solely within the UK, rather than being EU-wide. As such, the UK could find itself isolated and at odds with trading partners should other countries choose not to introduce a similar tax. This could leave the UK at a considerable disadvantage when it comes to attracting international orders and so could have a negative ripple effect on UK-based SMEs. Hopefully we will see this tax deferred for a year pending the outcome of the OECD work on taxation of the digital economy, which it is hoped will reach an agreement by the end of 2020.
Finally, with Brexit uncertainty still negatively impacting property sales, the Government could do more to get the housing market, traditionally a key driver of economic growth, moving and improve housing supply.
After seven years of punitive tax changes, buy-to-let property investors are hoping for a period of relative stability and maybe even a fiscal ‘escape hatch’ too.
A temporary reduction in the rate of Capital Gains Tax (CGT) payable on gains from the sale of B2L properties, made unprofitable by recent tax changes, could help to release stock onto the market. The new 30-day payment rules for CGT also means the Treasury’s coffers would feel the financial benefit immediately.
Further housing changes could see the Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) threshold raised to £500,000 for all buyers, the introduction of a 3 % SDLT surcharge for non-UK resident buyers of UK property, and the expected tightening of tax reliefs on the sale of individuals’ main residences.
N26, which has a European banking license, is still one of the smaller challenger banks in the UK, but on April 15 it will be closing around 200,000 UK customer accounts. It has stated the reason behind this is difficulties surrounding Brexit, as the “timing and framework” of the withdrawal bill has made it impossible to continue operating in the UK.
Thomas Grosse, chief banking officer at N26, said: "While we respect the political decision that has been taken, it means that N26 will be unable to serve our customers in the UK and will have to leave the market."
Finance Monthly also heard from Forrester’s senior analyst Aurelie L’Hostis, who said: “N26’s launch in the UK might have felt like a natural next step back in 2018. The challenger bank had successfully attracted half a million customers in 17 European countries, and it could then use its European banking licence as a parachute. Yet, Brexit was already looming ominously in the distance back then – and there were questions regarding the validity of that licence post-Brexit. Beyond that, N26 entered the UK market on the heels of fast-moving rival challenger banks Monzo, Revolut and Starling Bank. Catching up was not going to be easy.”
All N26 accounts in the UK will function until April 15 as normal but will subsequently be closed automatically. Any money that customers fail to remove form the accounts will be placed in a holding account by default. It said UK staff involved in the business will move into other roles.
Other challenger banks like Monzo and Starling have UK licenses, which is why they likely won’t be pulling out of the UK anytime soon.
Today marks the day that the UK finally leaves the EU. It also marks the day where all self-assessment tax returns are due, and many in the accountancy sector are concerned that focus on Britain's exit from the European Union might lead to huge delays in tax returns being submitted in time.
Last tax year, 704,000 returns were submitted on the deadline day, while another 477,000 returns were filed late. Even though the time is running out, there are still some things that taxpayers can do before the clock hits midnight on Friday. TaxScouts, a specialist tax returns company, gave us their advice for anyone who still needs to get their returns done during the Brexit melee:
Although it might not seem that Brexit and delays in tax returns are linked, historically many tax returns are filed late and HMRC struggled to cope with the workload in 2019, something experts foresee happening again this year. Previously HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) has issued warning letters in February following each January deadline. However, in 2019, many of the warnings weren’t sent until late April. The delays were being caused by the heavy workload currently being shouldered by civil servants due to Brexit preparations.
If this happens again, HMRC claimed last year that no one will be “unfairly penalized” and accountants hope this will be the case once more despite Brexit Day and Deadline day sharing the same January 31st calendar space.
The research found that:
UK investors are turning to traditional assets as a result of the political uncertainty currently facing the country, new research from Butterfield Mortgages Limited (BML) has found.
The prime property mortgage provider surveyed 1,100 UK-based investors, all of whom have assets in excess of £10,000, excluding pensions, savings, SIPPs and properties they live in.
The research revealed the most common assets investors hold are stocks and shares (53%), property (41%) and bonds (30%). On the other end of the spectrum, classic cars (16%), cryptocurrencies (17%), art and forex (both 19%) ranked as the least popular.
Delving into the factors influencing their investment decisions, 61% believe traditional assets like property are best positioned to deliver stable and secure returns during this current period of political uncertainty. One in five (20%) property investors are planning to invest in more real estate in 2020.
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When it comes to non-traditional asset classes, nearly two thirds (64%) of investors surveyed by BML do not think cryptocurrencies are a safe or reliable investment. A tenth (10%) of those who have invested in cryptocurrency plan to reduce their amount of investment in this asset in the new year.
Looking into the factors influencing their financial plans for 2020, 43% of investors said they have become more socially and environmentally conscious and this will influence their financial strategy in 2020.
Brexit is also playing on investors’ minds. Two fifths (42%) are holding off making any major investment decisions until Brexit has been resolved, though half (49%) are confident in the long-term performance of UK-based assets. This compares to 23% of investors who are looking to assets based outside the UK for their investments in 2020 because of Brexit.
Alpa Bhakta, CEO of BML, said: “In this era of political uncertainty, investors are rallying towards traditional asset classes like property, which are historically resilient and able to hold their value in times of transition. The fact a significant proportion of investors are planning to increase investment into property in 2020 shows that despite Brexit, demand for real estate remains resoundingly strong.
“Interestingly, the factors influencing financial strategies are also changing–on top of security and stability, investors are also taking into account the environmental and social impact of their investments. This will evidently be an important trend over the coming years, and is something both financial services firms and advisers will need to pay attention to in 2020.”
However, while it is a significant factor, Mark Halstead, partner at business intelligence and financial risk firm Red Flag Alert, says Brexit can also distract from more fundamental problems with a business, such as unrealistic profit guidance given to markets, setting inflated expectations, poor management performance, unsustainable debts reducing ability to invest, or an inability to adapt to changing market conditions.
Of course, Brexit does have an impact on many businesses and is often a contributor to those in trouble.
Importers, for example, are suffering from the falling pound (at least those that haven’t been managing currency exposure) and the lack of certainty over a trade deal makes investment justification challenging.
Our own figures show that since the 2016 referendum, there has been a 40% increase in the number of UK companies in significant financial stress. And the number of those in ‘critical’ financial stress has increased 8% year-on-year. Businesses in the real estate and property, construction, retail and travel sectors have been the most severely affected.
However, if we look more closely at different sectors, we see that the impact of Brexit is more complex than it might first appear.
Take retail, for example. The sector has been experiencing a digital revolution that has seen the high street face stiff competition from the internet. At the same time, business rates and rents have increased, and consumer habits have changed.
Brexit has played its part by knocking consumer confidence, but some retailers are doing very well in this environment.
Clothing retailer Primark has no online sales presence at all, and yet it reported a 4% increase in sales earlier this year, while its mid-market competitor Next saw its full-price sales increase 4.3%
Both of these brands have strong value propositions: Primark is known for its heavy discounts on fashion, while Next had a reputation for its home delivery service long before online retail took off.
It’s also worth noting that consumer spending has actually increased during 2019. Although it may have peaked, it remains to be seen if the previous growth is set to continue.
Brexit can even present some opportunities. Low-interest rates have resulted in poor returns for investors, and so lending to businesses is now a viable alternative – helping businesses access capital for propositions that may have been unattractive to investors pre-referendum.
FTSE 250 housebuilder Crest Nicholson issued a recent statement outlining a decreased profit projection, and Brexit was the headline factor: “During the second half of FY2019, the Company has experienced a volatile sales environment in some of its regional businesses, driven largely by ongoing customer uncertainty relating to Brexit and the economic outlook in the UK.”
Two additional factors cited were a reduction in the value of some London property stock and a large cost associated with remedial works regarding combustible materials.
While Brexit uncertainty does affect housebuilders, it may be a stretch to blame it for huge reductions in profit. Perhaps Crest Nicholson were a little over-ambitious with original house evaluations, and Brexit has nothing to do with the £17m remedial works required to bring properties in line with government guidance.
While Brexit uncertainty does affect housebuilders, it may be a stretch to blame it for huge reductions in profit.
One could also argue that low-interest rates and weak sterling (both driven in part by Brexit) are helpful to housebuilders.
Another company blaming Brexit for not meeting performance expectations is travel retailer On the Beach: “This weakening of Sterling (driven by Brexit) leads to a significant increase in On the Beach prices versus full risk competitors; as a result, the Group anticipates delivering a full-year performance below the Board's expectations.”
Another interpretation might be that the company’s currency hedging strategy, or lack of it, wasn’t robust enough to maintain margins during uncertain times.
Lunar Caravans is another business that has blamed poor performance on Brexit.
Until recently, the caravan, motorhome and campervan manufacturer had been profitable. In fact, in 2017 it reached a peak turnover of £50.6m from the production of around 3,400 units.
However, jump forward just two years, and the company was calling in the administrators, blaming a 20% drop in sales across the leisure vehicle industry caused by reduced consumer confidence due to Brexit.
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But once again, Brexit was only part of the story.
In 2016, the company’s profits were £1.6m; however, this dropped to £725k in 2017 when Lunar’s holding company had to buy back shares from three retiring shareholders.
Then, the company began to see a steady increase in its costs as the pound began to slip against the Euro.
With turnover increasing but profitability declining, the company was beginning to overtrade and struggling to manage its growth.
This reduced the value of the company by £1m and left it with fewer reserves to weather difficult times. And these difficult times soon came.
The company had invested heavily in new products, but several design issues in the new caravans saw a flood of warranty claims coming in from thousands of angry customers.
This further eroded profits, damaged the brand and added to the financial risk associated with the business.
With poor sales and spiralling costs, huge debts accrued, and the company was unable to pay its creditors – by which time the writing was on the wall.
The impacts of Brexit are undoubtedly severe; however, they shouldn’t always be terminal, and Brexit alone doesn’t automatically equate to a toxic business environment.
In many cases, it represents a short financial shock that lays bare a company’s underlying long-term weaknesses and sends it spiralling.
But those businesses which are financially healthy and have competent management who can react to changes in the market stand a much better chance of being able to weather Brexit and maybe even achieve some growth.
It’s been an interesting three years since the 2016 referendum, with the next ten years promising more of the same. Below, Erica evaluates Boris Johnson’s Withdrawal Bill and its implications for UK businesses as well as the society we live in.
Narrow bands of interest and self-interest don’t create a vibrant society, nor a thriving business. Diversity has to include different thinkers, different ethnicities, ages, gender, problem solvers. Those companies, authorities and organisations who can’t embrace and harness this will become moribund. And rightly so.
At the moment we have no idea what any post-Brexit trade deals will look like. Developing aligned business models and associated revenue streams is vital. With entertainment, retail and business services moving increasingly online, reducing trading frictions by evolving new digital services and products from real-world trade is vital. And for those only online, there is a rich opportunity to consider how an IRL leisure or experiential offering can enhance your bottom line. After all, there is space in abundance available in every single UK high street.
In the current Withdrawal Bill, climate and environmental alignment with the EU has been shifted to future trade agreements. That might be fine to discuss then, but your clients and customers will be expecting it from you now. This is not an option.
Responsibility has to be taken at every step in the commercial process and, increasingly, will be an influencing factor in every personal purchasing decision. Get your supply chain to sign up to sustainability/ethical mandates now to gain early mover advantages and positioning to enable trade within even the strictest global environmental trade frameworks. Sustainability should be as important to your business and as measurable as profitability.
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Sabzproperty has a highly skilled technical team of professionals at work with a strong desire to ensure client satisfaction through excellent service delivery. We have a vibrant and engaging property market which offers a large property inventory accrued by competent property agents and developers from different neighborhoods. This has attracted teaming property audience over the years and has birthed the responsive value rewarding network we have today.
Nothing is certain over the next few weeks… who will be in power? The next few months… in or out?
So you need to understand what deep uncertainty means for your business, your customers and your own personal circumstances. Be prepared to pivot, to take advantage of short term opportunities, to revel in the unexpected. What could this uncertainty allow you to unlock in your relationship with your past/present clients? Where will it allow you to find future clients? What could you develop with or for your competitors? And where might you find new buyers in differing marketplaces you had not looked to before?
And if you are not in the D2C world – look out of the window to ask what you can sell to that person walking past? Thinking the unthinkable has to be part of your new strategy.
The British are inventive people. Everyone who lives in this wayward nation contributes to its determinedly individualistic approach. We lead the world in creativity – in fact it makes up £101.5bn GVA, the second-highest sector in the economy. In times of economic retrenchment and difficulties that may lie ahead, there will be the potential for green shoots to force their way through, for businesses to grow and develop in unlikely sectors and unexpected ways.
In the 2007/8 recession, people delayed big-ticket purchases and cut back on eating out. This saw a rise in small spends - cupcakes, lip-sticks, feel-good treats. Home baking and entertainment surged with businesses that could supply this ‘batten down the hatches’ mood benefitting. The emergence of shows like The Great British Bake-Off first screened in 2010 after 18 months in development and production captured this back-to-basics mood. Now a highly profitable global tv format sold across many countries, it illustrates how there are opportunities in even the most trying economic circumstances.
As the next few weeks and months unfold, focus on these five points in both your business and personal dealings. Keep your mind alive to opportunities, inventive thinking and potential pivots. Living with uncertainty is something we’re all getting used to within our own lives, the UK economy and planet as a whole. So embrace it and turn it into positive actions build a commercially inventive road ahead.
About Erica Wolfe-Murray:
Cited by Forbes.com as ‘a leading innovation and growth expert’ Erica Wolfe-Murray runs innovation studio, Lola Media Ltd. With creative head and FD experience, she focuses on auditing intellectual assets/IP to evolve new products & services from a company’s existing business.
She is also the author of ‘Simple Tips, Smart Ideas : Build a Bigger, Better Business’ aimed at the UK’s 10m+ micro business & freelance sector to help build greater commercial resilience in this dynamic but often ignored part of the economy.
Sharing personal data with organisations in the EU is essential to thousands of SMEs, and we know that the financial services sector is one of those that is most reliant.
When the UK leaves the EU, it will become what is known as a 'third country' under the EU’s data protection laws.
This means that UK and EU/EEA organisations will need to take necessary action to ensure that personal data transfers from organisations in Europe to the UK are lawful.
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The benefits of taking action now means UK organisations won’t be at risk of losing access to the personal data they need to operate such as names, addresses or payroll details.
Financial service businesses should review their contracts relating to these personal data flows. Where absent, they need to update their contracts with additional clauses so that they can continue to receive personal data legally from the EU/EEA after Brexit.
For most financial service businesses, this will not be expensive and will not always require specialist advice.
Digital Secretary Nicky Morgan said: “If you receive personal data from the EU, you may need to update your contracts with European suppliers or partners to continue receiving this data legally after Brexit.
“So, I am urging all businesses and organisations to check and ensure they are ready for Brexit.
“There are simple safeguards you can put in place by following the guidance available. UK and EU businesses should get on the front foot and act now to avoid any unnecessary disruption.”
It’s not just UK residents that would be impacted. While experts predict that a full-blown recession could be on the cards, it’s also believed that it will negatively influence various regions within the EU, with Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, and France most likely to feel the consequences. Indeed, even countries as far afield as America could be adversely impacted.
This means that it makes sense to have a plan in place – preferably, one that includes a financial safety net to combat any uncertainty or financial difficulties that come on the back of the UK’s exit from the EU.
With this in mind, here are a few handy tips to turn you into a post-Brexit super saver.
Budgeting is considered essential to good money management, but not everyone puts this theory into practice. There are very few of us who cut our costs as much as we feasibly could, but with the possibility of a no-deal Brexit looming, you’ll want to not only reduce your immediate expenditure, but identify any additional areas where you could decrease your outlay even further should this become necessary. With this in mind, we recommend that you spend some time drawing up a table of your incomings and outgoings, so you can work out what you could go without well in advance of it becoming a necessity.
Although UK PM Boris Johnson remains adamant that the UK will leave the European Union before the end of the month, the reality of Brexit remains little more than academic, but it’s unlikely to stay this way forever. Recession is a very real possibility, so even if you don’t want to go the whole hog immediately, you should already be looking to make small savings where you can. This doesn’t mean going without entirely; rather, it means swapping your Heinz baked beans for own-brand alternatives, and visiting comparison sites; for everything from travel, utility bills and iGaming. For example, in regards to online casinos, with a generous multistep welcome package, Dunder is a solid choice, giving you the chance to play the games you enjoy without breaking the bank, or sites like Compare the Market for insurance, and Trivago for travel.
One of the big difficulties with Brexit is that nobody can truly predict how it will affect the economy. This means that interest rates could do almost anything, either remaining low if the financial landscape worsens or rising along with inflation. However, there is one way to know for certain what your future spending on credit products will look like, and that’s by fixing your interest rates. Experts suggest that to safeguard yourself against what’s ahead, your best bets are to either switch to a lower rate or consolidate your debt so you can accurately plan ahead.
Isn’t it time you started making some changes?
When it comes to property investment in the United Kingdom, Simon Nosworthy of Osbornes Law Firm believes that the housing market has already pre-adjusted for Brexit, according to The Sun. Investors who decide to pick up properties before, during or after Brexit may be grabbing bargains that they can sell for big profits when the market recovers.
While property investment in the UK is currently subject to a lot of uncertainty and has its pros and cons, there will be investors who read the property investment landscape perfectly and then make a mint.
Buying property has many advantages (capital growth over time and/or rental income), provided quality properties in good locations are chosen. The UK real estate market shifts, but savvy investors know when to get into the market and when to get out. Since prices have dipped a bit due to Brexit uncertainty, there are valuable properties available which are cheaper than they normally would be. These properties may increase in value once Brexit issues are finally resolved. Whether you’re interested in buying a home or flat and renting it out to make cash, or investing in commercial real estate, the silver lining in Brexit uncertainty is that deals are out there. If you’re interested in buying, know the risks and choose a property or properties with the utmost care.
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To boost the odds of a successful property investment, you should examine prospective properties with a fine-tooth comb. Properties should be in locations that are in demand or growing more popular. Properties should be in good condition, and tests will be needed, as visually inspecting a property on your own isn’t enough. It’s wise to pay for surface and air inspections that determine whether mold is present. You should also pay inspectors to determine whether homes or commercial properties have other issues, such as structural defects or water damage. Mold remediation is possible and should not break the bank, but issues with structural integrity and water damage may cost a lot to fix and cut into profits when you resell.
Short-term flips are always an option, but current real estate market conditions point to playing the long-term property investment game. Buy undervalued properties on the cheap and hang onto them, so you can make good money when you sell them once the Brexit dust settles. Rent a property while the UK adjusts to a new reality, and prepare for the future: when the market rebounds and you’ll be able to sell with great results.
The pros of UK property investment in the age of Brexit, such as lower real estate prices and the possibility of big profits in the future, are balanced by the uncertainty and risk that Brexit brings. Weigh the pros and cons before making a play in the real estate market.
Commercial finance intermediaries are divided on Brexit. One out of four respondents consider it a key challenge, while one fifth believe that it will bring new business opportunities. However, commercial finance intermediaries have a positive future outlook. 77% of respondents believe that the number of loans they broker will increase; more than half of these even go so far to say that they believe it will rise by a lot.
According to recent statistics from UK Finance, conducted with the support of industry organisations NACFB and FIBA, UK lenders approved over 290,000 loans and overdrafts to small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) in 2018, worth £28 billion in total. Commercial finance intermediaries, including brokers, accountants and business advisers, are often the invisible hand in these transactions. They play a crucial role in helping UK businesses source the right funding from all the different options offered.
However, despite the healthy size of the SME loan market in the UK there is still a £22 billion funding gap, with many businesses struggling to obtain capital for their needs , according to the Bank of England. What’s more, recent stats from the British Business Bank highlight the importance of commercial finance intermediaries stating that businesses receiving external support when looking for funding are 25% more likely to become high-growth companies.
Commenting on the survey findings, Niels Turfboer, managing director at Spotcap, said: “Commercial finance intermediaries are an important part of the SME funding jigsaw. The survey insights show that there is a lot of potential for them to help fill the £22 billion funding gap. The more adaptable and open-minded to change intermediaries – and lenders – are, the better and faster they can compete and grow their business.”
Adam Tyler, the executive chairman at FIBA, the Financial Intermediary & Broker Association, adds: "We benefit hugely from such a wide range of lenders and to know that SMEs are still not aware of the choice is very disappointing. My own research has revealed similar shortfalls and the more we can do collectively, the more small businesses can get the funding they require."
Graham Toy, CEO of the National Association of Commercial Finance Brokers, responded to the findings: “The research chimes with our own view of the commercial finance broker’s role in supporting and advising business borrowers. Brokers have a positive outlook partly because they remain instinctively agile, with many of them having weathered the unpredictability of a post-2008 world.”
Importantly, the political situation does not accurately reflect the current state of affairs in other sectors of the economy. Jerald Solis, Business Development and Acquisitions Director at Experience Invest works closely with international investors, and he says it’s reassuring to see that UK property, be it commercial or residential, is still held in high regard.
In the first half of 2017, and less than a year following the EU referendum, the UK made up 14% of global commercial property investment transactions. This was second only to the US and tells us that international investors evidently were not letting the prospect of Brexit impact their long-term real estate investment strategies. Meanwhile, total investment volumes into the UK’s multifamily residential sector rose by more than 150% to reach $7.6 billion in 2018.
So, what is it about UK property that holds global interest even at the most challenging of times, and how can international investors use Brexit to support their long-term financial goals?
Currency fluctuations in the wake of the Brexit vote has had a significant influence on investment decisions. Since June 2016, the value of the pound has steadily fallen; as a result, overseas investors have found themselves enjoying more buying power, particularly within the prime property market.
With a weakened pound, overseas investors have been in the position of being able to snap up UK properties at discounted prices. According the HMRC, for instance, there was a 50% spike in the number of UK homes sold for over £10 million in the year following the vote.
The Bank of England has also cut interest rates to historic lows, encouraging investment in real estate assets. The interest rate has been held at 0.75% since August 2018, with little indication of this being raised in the near future.
While foreign interest in the market remains, investors’ strategies have been changing in response to Brexit. Namely, the variety of opportunities now on offer means that investors have been looking beyond the traditional remit of property investment in the UK to explore new cities and sub-sectors that offer the potential of long-term capital growth.
Historically, London has been the destination of choice for international investors. However, in recent years, investors have increasingly recognised high-growth cities and leading business destinations like Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds and Newcastle.
This is something we have witnessed first-hand at Experience Invest. Indeed, Manchester and the other so-called Northern Powerhouse cities have attracted some of the highest levels of Foreign Direct Investment of any UK region outside of London according to research from Ernst & Young.
It should come as no surprise then, that house prices in Manchester have surged; in the 12 months to July 2018, house prices rose by nearly 9%. Meanwhile, enquiries by Chinese investors alone about buy-to-let options in the city soared by 255.6% in January 2018 compared to the same month in the previous year.
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Cities like this, which are undergoing rapid regeneration, have been clear favourites in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. The reasons for this are clear; with prices in such areas typically below those seen in the capital, rental yields and capital appreciation forecasts tend to be markedly stronger.
Indeed, such cities are also home to a large student population, representing huge demand for year-round accommodation and good long-term investment prospects. This translates to another trend taking hold. Namely, overseas investors are beginning to diversify their assets, looking towards options such as Purpose-Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) that cater to growing demand for term-time accommodation. Indeed, overseas investors dominate the UK PBSA market according to Cushman & Wakefield, making up 55% of 2018 transactions.
The UK’s proven track record for delivering high-quality real estate leaves us in no doubt that international investors will continue to target the UK, albeit perhaps with a different approach. Particularly with a heavy investment in regeneration projects up and down the country, the improvements in infrastructure and connectivity, as well as the delivery of sought-after new-builds, means that the UK property market will remain a top target for investment – even if it does naturally experience an immediate post-Brexit wobble.
The Financial Institutions Sentiment Survey, now in its fourth year, canvassed the views of more than 100 senior decision makers at a broad range of organisations – from global banks and insurers to intermediaries, investors and asset managers – to explore the key themes shaping their sector.
The report found that more than half of firms (58%) are expecting growth in the UK economy to slow down in the next 12 months – twice as many as held that view in 2018 (29%). Two-thirds of them (67%) expect domestic growth in the coming year to be weaker than G7 peers.
These views were broadly mirrored in respondents’ expectations for the UK financial services sector with 55% forecasting that growth would deteriorate during the year ahead, up from 27% in 2018.
Similarly, most senior executives (54%) said they have become less optimistic about the future of their industry in the past 12 months, up from 40% in 2018.
Meanwhile, two-fifths of firms (40%) expect their own revenues to increase – albeit down from 64% last year – with only 17% seeing income falling next year.
More than half of firms feel they are prepared for the UK’s departure from the EU, with 59% stating they are ready for a ‘no deal’ Brexit with little or no dependency on a transition period and no further extension.
The remainder of firms surveyed are dependent to some extent on a transition period to complete their contingency planning, with almost a third (29%) saying that they have a limited dependency and 12% saying that they have a significant dependency.
Despite the focus these preparations require, the sector continues to invest in the UK, with a third (31%) expecting investment to increase during the year ahead (compared to 24% in 2018). Only 10% of respondents forecast a reduction in investment in their UK business over the next 12 months.
The three most significant risks cited by survey respondents remained unchanged on last year, with the UK’s departure from the EU top (58%), followed by economic uncertainty (36%), and new regulation (31%).
Significantly, the risk posed by cybercrime (29%) has leapt from eighth place to fourth since 2018.
Last year 46% of respondents said one of their firm’s top three technology investment strategies for 2018 was to improve cybersecurity, behind improving customer satisfaction (49%) and reducing operating costs (48%). In 2019, cybersecurity moves to top of the tech agenda and with greater prominence – 70% are now prioritising it as an area for investment.
Robina Barker Bennett, Managing Director, Head of Financial Institutions, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “The past year has presented many challenges for businesses. Against a backdrop of on-going global economic turbulence, it is unsurprising that sentiment among financial institutions towards the sector and the wider economy is lower than in previous years.
“That said, the responses to this survey show the sector’s resilience during difficult times and it is especially encouraging to see that firms plan to continue investing in the UK.
“In 2019, firms are arguably more dependent than ever on technology. With this rapid advancement, the risks from cybercrime are increasing, placing extra pressure on financial institutions to change the way they operate.”
