Diversifying any investment assets sounds like a likely success in the long term, but what are the risks when it comes to cryptocurrencies? Levi Meade, Investment Analyst at Columbus Capital, provides some insight for Finance Monthly.
Diversification and its benefits is an area that has been covered many times in prominent financial literature and is something that is both well understood and commonly practiced amongst the traditional investment committee. Therefore I will not seek to reiterate the theoretical advantages of a diversified investment strategy.
However, investing into crypto-assets, as an asset class up till now purely based on speculative value of experimental technology, is a discipline that can prove to be extremely dangerous over the long term without diversification; diversification as a risk reduction strategy is imperative when risk is so high that success of an individual asset is improbable.
Experimental Technology
Crypto-assets are early stage start-ups offering a product completely as open-source software utilising techniques, security models and incentive structures that are largely unproven and at best no more than ten years on the market. This provides two major sources of risk.
Firstly, start-ups mostly fail due to a number of reasons. In general at such an early stage there are an enormous amount of barriers that a founding team need to get past in order to remain in business which are usually disproportionately harder to overcome than problems at later stages of a businesses life cycle. For instance, gaining traction amongst a large enough customer base for survival, in a situation where customers may be reasonably satisfied with existing solutions, can be difficult when human nature tends to be resistant to change. A start-up has to contend with this friction, which is embedded into human behaviour with a significantly superior solution.
Secondly, crypto-assets are pieces of open-source software that harness a variety of concepts from different disciplines which at their intersection requires highly trained experts to build and understand the technology. This creates a much larger probability of there being unknown unknowns regarding the inherent risks of a piece of a technology and on its limitations.
Risk to Reward of a Diversified Crypto Strategy
How does creating a diversified portfolio across the asset class as opposed to a more concentrated portfolio affect the overall risk reward? What is of particular importance is that with such high risk investments come the potential for massively outsized returns. For example, since its inception on the market, Bitcoin has returned over 100,000%. When creating a diversified crypto portfolio, like a venture capitalist, the aim of the game is to increase the likelihood that you are exposed to such outsized gains experienced by the winners. Even in a landscape where the majority of assets experience unfavourable returns over the long term and perhaps go to zero, the outsized gains experienced by a good investment can still lead to above average investment returns.
Also, with regards to the technical risk and the ability for us as investors to assess this technical risk, diversification works as a financial engineering tool to mitigate the affects of unknown unknowns, which may be specific to individual assets. By taking smaller positions in a greater amount of assets you can limit your exposure to such technical risks, which may be difficult to identify or predict.
Why Diversification in Crypto Could Fail
Diversification however does not help to protect against technical risks that affect the entire asset class. Another aspect of investing into experimental technology are the potential risks regarding the foundation of the new technology which could directly affect the entire asset class. One particular risk, which the space is aware of, is the incoming threat of quantum computing. The majority of crypto-assets are secured by some cryptographic problems, which would require an insane amount of computing power to break, which is simply not economically viable given the current technological constraints. However breakthroughs in quantum computing could make it possible to break such cryptographic problems, and in the process rendering Bitcoin and other similar blockchains useless at that point unless they had developed quantum resistance before such an attack occurs. Diversification therefore change the risk profile of the portfolio such that investors are more exposed to broader investment themes or even the some key risks affecting the assets class as a whole in comparison to more asset specific risks.
Current market activity indicates that cryptocurrencies are set for “another considerable surge in prices gains” in the near future and Ethereum’s price could reach $2,500 by the end of the year - but investors should exercise caution.
This forecast from Nigel Green, the founder and CEO of deVere Group, comes after a strong few days ithe cryptocurrency markets.
Mr Green, whose firm launched the cryptocurrency exchange app, deVere Crypto, comments: “Most major cryptocurrencies Current market activity indicates that cryptocurrencies are set for “another considerable surge in prices gains” in the near future and Ethereum’s price could reach $2,500 by the ehave been posting big gains over the last few days.
“Current market activity indicates that the major cryptocurrencies just like the mcdvoice has done so far that are set for another considerable surge in prices gains in the near future.”
He continues: “What’s fuelling this current rally in crypto prices? There are several key motivators.
“These include the growing integration with and adoption by major banks and other financial institutions.
“Indeed, 20 per cent of all financial firms, ranging from hedge funds to banking giants, are now considering trading digital currencies in the 12 months, according to a new Thomson Reuters survey published this week.
“Another key reason for the rally is that there’s a growing awareness of the need and demand for digital, global currencies in a digitalised, globalised world.
“The upward trend is also being triggered by regulation, which most experts now believe is inevitable. This will give investors even more protection and long-term confidence in the market.”
The deVere CEO believes that despite Bitcoin taking the headlines, Ethereum could be the real story here.
He notes: “It’s interesting to note that even with an impressive one-week jump of 11.3 per cent, Bitcoin - the world’s largest by market capitalisation – is the worst performer amongst the biggest cryptocurrencies.
“The price of Ethereum is predicted to increase significantly this year, and could hit $2,500 by the end of 2018 with a further increase by 2019 and 2020.
“This general upswing will be fuelled by three mains drivers. First, more and more platforms are using Ethereum as a means of trading. Second, the increased use of smart contracts by Ethereum. And third, the decentralisation of cloud computing.”
Mr Green goes on to say: “Ethereum can be expected to solidify its position as the second most valuable and used cryptocurrency token in the world. This consistency of the Ethereum token will appreciate well into the future. As entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, bankers and financial houses are looking for stability and safer trading conditions, and Ethereum is offering that security.”
Mr Green concludes: “We’re certainly entering crypto bull territory, with many retail and institutional investors now finding that cryptocurrencies can no longer ignore the opportunities.
“However, cryptocurrency markets remain volatile. Caution should be exercised and professional advice sought.”
(Source: deVere Group)
CoinMetro is a cryptocurrency exchange that aims to make buying and selling cryptocurrency as easy as purchasing pounds, dollars and euros.
Offering a complete and supportive financial platform, CoinMetro provides an avenue for both newcomers, as well as professional and experienced currency traders to begin trading in cryptocurrency. Through a tokenized ecosystem, the trading platform supports familiar investment options such as professional asset management and ETFs, and also allows users to invest in up-and-coming Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs).
The team behind the business has years of experience in the forex industry, with CoinMetro’s sister company FXPIG. Drawing on their substantial experience developing technology for financial trading and understanding of the liquidity needs of currency markets, CoinMetro is uniquely positioned to support and understand the needs of the growing cryptocurrency space, as well as support the trading needs of investors wanting to add crypto to a diverse portfolio of new and traditional securities. To discuss all things forex and crypto, we caught up with the CEO of the company Kevin Murcko.
As a long-standing expert in forex and crypto, what would you say are the reasons behind, and the impact of Bitcoin’s price volatility?
With a relatively small circulation of coins, prices of cryptocurrencies are often affected by the actions of ‘whales’ – early investors with large stakes in specific markets. News is also a force to be reckoned with. News of countries enforcing bans of course plays out bearishly in the markets, while news of government endorsement predictably sends prices upward. Lack of regulation has also contributed to instability.
The impact of volatility has been twofold. On the one hand, rapid price fluctuations have made the space a profitable one for eagle-eyed traders. In order for anyone to make money in financial markets, there must be price movement, and the crypto markets have offered traders exactly that.
On the other hand, with a larger price bracket, comes larger levels of risk: sizeable gains on one day can be all but wiped out in the following day of trading.
Of course, a currency should ideally hold its value and be a reasonably reliable store of wealth. In this sense, extreme volatility has also tarnished the reputation of cryptocurrency as a traditional currency, and resultantly, countries are increasingly choosing to regulate crypto as an asset.
But it’s important to note that while cryptocurrencies have been volatile assets in the past, this doesn’t mean that this will always be the case in the future. In fact, some cryptocurrency developers are taking active measures to limit volatility by, for example, pegging the price of their token to that of the US dollar.
Can you tell us a bit about the history of forex regulations? How have they affected the marketplace?
The history of FX regulation really depends on which country you’re looking at. All countries have their own independent regulatory bodies, and are typically subject to different rules.
China, for example, was late to enter the foreign exchange market and late to impose regulations. As recently as August 2016, Chinese authorities found 192 illegal banks conducting shady forex transactions valued at $30 billion. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) also found instances of companies evading regulations by using false information, transferring illegal assets, and evidence of money laundering via forex trading schemes.
Globally, of course, there are regulations with global ramifications. MIFID II, for instance, has caused an upheaval in FX markets this year.
The net effect of all this regulation has been to achieve what I suppose is the goal of all regulation: it’s helped the FX markets to thrive and maintained financial stability.
What can be learnt from the introduction of regulations in the forex industry?
By reflecting on how the forex industry has been shaped by regulation over the last 20 years, we can get a rough idea of how everything might play out for a decentralised international cryptocurrency marketplace.
Before Bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies were established in the late 2000s, the forex industry was facing radical change as the internet opened up the market to the public. New retail brokers started to appear alongside the traditional banks, providing new services and competition. As forex trading made the move online, there was an element of the ‘wild west’ culture that has also characterised the early stages of cryptocurrency. As both markets have experienced a similar introduction to the trading space, the future development of regulations for cryptocurrencies will mirror that of forex trading 10 years ago.
The current conditions in FX enforce businesses to jump through a variety of hoops - such as meeting minimum capital requirements, establishing audit requirements, and adhering to reporting and bookkeeping - before becoming a licensed forex broker. Thanks to this detailed process, regulators are able to weed out fraudulent brokers before they get to market. We expect equivalent hoops to be introduced into the cryptocurrency space. This is all likely to happen quickly, given that cryptocurrencies are now very much a mainstream financial asset.
Like the historic forex market, there’s a certain pull and push in the crypto world between the need for overt regulation and control, versus a laissez-faire approach in which a free market is allowed to regulate itself. In the case of crypto, I expect the regulated approach will win out.
Why does the crypto community need to adopt wider regulation and become part of the regulatory process?
Regulation, if done correctly, legitimises the cryptocurrency market by removing that ‘wild west’ element to it – the very same which once characterised the forex markets.
Regulation brings stability to a market often regarded as excessively volatile, and protects investors from criminal activity; given just how many fraudulent Initial Coin Offerings, cryptocurrency hacks, and fraudulent exchanges are about, this is long overdue.
Why does the crypto community need to be part of this process? For the simple reason that, if left in the hands of potentially misguided legislators, regulation could undermine the growth of this booming part of the financial services sector.
We’ve seen just how awry crypto regulation can get. Chinese policy for example, has achieved little other than to quash innovation and growth, and has simply driven cryptocurrency activities abroad.
What do you think the rest of 2018 holds for forex and crypto?
We have a rough idea of what this year holds for crypto, following on from the recent G20 meeting of finance ministers in Buenos Aires. Member nations have agreed that cryptocurrencies needed to be examined, but that more information is needed before any regulations could be proposed. While there will be further details on this in July, we do have some signs about what recommendations will be announced. Expect
- A bilateral approach to regulation, as Christine Lagarde has recommended on numerous occasions this year;
- Crypto to be treated as an asset, and not as a currency, as various financial regulators have hinted at throughout the year;
- Crypto regulation to ultimately consist of a mixture of existing rules and new rules.
Forex is more difficult to pin down at the moment, with US protectionism on the rise and the prospect of a trade war. This year, the Euro looks bearish, with the dollar’s value as the reserve currency of choice diminishing in step with uncertainty over US trade policy. Whether this will persist to the end of the year remains to be seen.
Website: www.coinmetro.com
Ripple can be expected to “convert the remaining crypto-cynics,” affirms the boss of one of the world’s largest independent financial services organisations.
The prediction from Nigel Green, the founder and CEO of deVere Group, comes as Ripple (XRP) experienced a spike last week, adding another $62bn to its market value. The cryptocurrency also broke some key resistance, such as $0.6500 and $0.6600, nudging it towards the important $0.7000 level against the US dollar.
Mr Green, whose firm launched the pioneering crypto exchange app, deVere Crypto, says: “After the cryptocurrency market somewhat overheated at the end of 2017 – thanks largely to investors piling in, pushing Bitcoin to an all-time high of more than $19,000 – there was a major, natural price correction in the first quarter of this year of most of the major cryptocurrencies.
“But the cryptocurrency market is, once again, now looking already significantly more bullish than it did in Quarter 1.”
He continues: “This latest upward crypto market trajectory can be attributed to the fact that institutional and retail investors are increasingly appreciating the fundamentals, such as the need and demand for digital currencies in a digitalised, tech-driven age.
“Also there is now huge awareness that blockchain, the technology that underpins the likes of Bitcoin and Ripple, is likely to be the world’s next major disruptive technology.”
Mr Green goes on to assert: “Cryptocurrencies are now really coming into the mainstream. But there are still some critics of the crypto revolution. However, I believe that Ripple (XRP) can be expected to convert the remaining crypto cynics.
“This is primarily due to Ripple’s apparent emphasis on integrating with banks and other financial institutions.
“For instance, banking giant Santander has recently launched a foreign exchange service that uses blockchain technology developed by Ripple to make same-day international money transfers. It is also reported to be in talks with other major global banks and money transfer groups to develop similar products.”
He adds: “However, cryptocurrencies remain highly determined by market sentiment, and caution must be exercised, and professional advice should be sought.”
The deVere CEO concludes: “By focusing its development strategy in this way, Ripple is likely to help change the perception of crypto, expand its own value, and co-lead the ongoing shift in the way the world uses, manages, accesses, stores and exchanges money.”
(Source: Prior Consultancy)
Trading is no longer a male-only club. Women now represent 19% of online traders worldwide, and they’re also more successful at it than their male counterparts. This stems from an international report assessing the habits and demographic data of more than 500,000 traders. It was published by BrokerNotes, the online trading comparison site.
What’s caused the shift
The shift has been driven by the democratisation of trading as a result of the internet. This has paved the way for women to enter an industry that’s historically been dominated by men. But it’s not only that female trader numbers are increasing. They’re also better at it.
Women are depositing less than men in their online trading accounts (on average $424 less) and are making fewer, more calculated trades. Men, on the other hand, make more trades and are much more likely to be reactionary to changes in the market, which is proven to have a negative impact on overall return on investment. This type of trading costs men money – the average income of a female online trader being £35,743 compared to the average male income of £32,525.
The female crypto boom
The crypto boom has had a big role to play in fuelling the surge of female traders. Last year, there were 9.6 million total online traders worldwide. In 2018, it’s now 13.9 million, with 2.7 million of them being female. Interestingly, 59% of women choose to trade crypto over traditional assets like forex.
Although both genders are trading Bitcoin, women only represent 10% of total Bitcoin traders. This points to the fact that women are looking to altcoins when investing in crypto with females accounting for 18% of Dash traders and Ripple also attracting a higher percentage of female traders.
Other data points
Marcus Taylor, CEO at BrokerNotes, commented: “When people think of trading, they think of testosterone-fuelled ‘Wolf of Wall Street’ characters. The reality is there’s no place for stereotypes in an online world. By offering anyone the tools to research and develop trading strategies, the internet has opened up trading to the masses. With more women demonstrating a flair for trading, it points towards a transformation that’s also moving towards gender equality.”
Facebook, Google, and now also Twitter have all moved to ban cryptocurrency-based adverts on their sites. This means that any ads pertaining to ICO platforms, bitcoin wallets, token sales, crypto-trading etc. will be banned.
Much of this spouts from illicit ads and fraudulent activities. Therefore, there will be some exceptions and policies are still being put together. Analysts currently believe dips in market values and trading of crypto are being caused by the regulatory scrutiny and ban on ads.
This week Finance Monthly hears from BrokerNotes CEO Marcus Taylor on what this means for the crypto market as a whole: “The cryptocurrency market is taking a battering at the moment. It’s being viewed by consumers and big businesses as a wild west environment riddled with risk and instability. Google’s move to ban cryptocurrency ads, following Facebook’s decision last month, will light a fire under the industry to introduce the regulation needed to make the crypto market one consumers can trust in the long term.
“But what about the short-term impact? A recent report shows that 58% of online cryptocurrency traders are millennials and it seems logical that removing advertising from social media channels like YouTube and Facebook should have a major impact on their overall interest in the market. The reality will be different though.
“Although 18-30s represent a huge chunk of the market, 52% identify as experienced traders. The ban will simply serve to protect the ill-informed making bad decisions and bring market stability, rather than put a stranglehold on cryptocurrency trading.”
With the explosion of cryptocurrencies over recent years, many businesses and start-ups are turning to Initial Coin Offerings, or ICOs, to raise money to get their projects up and running. This week Finance Monthly gets the lowdown on ICO management from Dr. Moritz Kurtz, CEO & Co-Founder of Acorn Collective, clarifying the point, purpose and benefits of launching an ICO.
In an ICO campaign, early backers of the venture buy a percentage of the cryptocurrency, often based on one of the existing public blockchains, in the form of tokens created by the company they are supporting.
An ICO can theoretically be used to fund any project or product in any category, however, before an ICO is launched it needs to clarify:
With so many ICOs in the marketplace you must lay out your concept in detail before launching an ICO. This way contributors can see the utility of your token, and understand what they are buying into. It also makes token holders feel part of the process of creating a new technology, platform or product.
Who should run an ICO?
Whilst any product or project CAN launch an ICO, that does not mean anyone SHOULD. ICO’s have become a popular funding model with start-ups looking to bypass the traditional, and more rigorous, process of gaining funds via venture capital backing.
Although technically an ICO model can be used to fund anything, it is important to consider:
ICO for Crowdfunding
An ICO could be greatly beneficial for the crowdfunding space, as it allows for the following:
Essentially, an ICO can be used to ‘crowdfund crowdfunding’.
How is an ICO mutually beneficial?
Successful ICOs benefit both backers of the venture and those relying on the funds it provides.
The backers can contribute towards a product or project at an early stage, thus benefitting from the increased demand for the token as utility increases. Meanwhile, projects can receive early funding to build their business venture without having to give away equity in the company.
Things to think about
Although launching an ICO can hold great promise for start-ups, it’s not all plain sailing.
Getting the funds can be tricky. When launching an ICO you must generate interest from contributors to encourage them to buy your tokens which, in a crowded marketplace, can be challenging. Not getting enough funds is one of the biggest risks. Not meeting the minimum target means the funds are returned to the token holders and the ICO is deemed as having failed.
An ICO is a great way of raising funding for the right projects in certain industries, but is by no means an easy solution. The ICO world is currently saturated with projects and competition for funding is intense. Making sure you have a viable and sustainable idea that requires blockchain is a good start. From then on, a successful ICO requires all the same focus on marketing and community building as any other form of fundraising.
Spread across social media sites and uttered consistently by the leader of the United States, Donald Trump, on several occasions, the term ‘fake news’ has seriously caught on. It has affected the way media platforms operate, the way the public perceives information and even how governments confront the spread of extremism. Below, Finance Monthly hears from Lyric Jain, CEO and founder of Logically, on the widespread economic impact of fake news.
Named word of the year in 2017, fake news has dominated both media and politics, shaping campaigns and influencing votes. However, while the conversation has been focusing on the implications it has on politics, many have failed to take into account the impact fake news has had on the wider economy. Not only do these misleading and misinformed pieces affect business and consumer confidence in products and companies, they can also lead to uncertainty and fallout from ill-informed political decisions.
Event driven trading algorithms act on information extracted from newswires and social media. The presence of fake news in these pipelines means the algorithms act on bad information. The larger operators in this market are aware of this vulnerability and have addressed them by making changes to their algorithms. Adversarial algorithms have sought to take advantage of these systems by publishing falsified information on social media and across the internet.
Fake news is not a new phenomenon, with evidence of it impacting the stock market dating back to the 1800s. In 1803, Britain was looking to declare war on France, but the Lord Mayor of London received a letter supposedly written by Lord Hawksbury claiming that the dispute had been settled amicable. This letter was taken to the stock exchange and subsequently led to the stocks rising by 5%. However, the validity of the letter remained under suspicion and was later found to be a forgery, forcing the Treasury to issue a statement to the press. By the time the hoax was noticed, stocks had changed hands, and it became impossible to track who had gained from the fraudulent letter.
Fast forward a few hundred years and you are looking at very similar events taking place surrounding the value of bitcoin. January 2018 witnessed the crash of bitcoin, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency, with the value falling by 50% in a single month. While the media is only one element in the rise and fall of market values, the development of cryptocurrencies has led to an explosion of online content criticising the most popular currencies. In the unregulated world of cryptocurrencies, many fraudsters have seen their opportunity to deliberately spread false information to affect the price of their holdings using social media, fake news sites and private chat apps, such as Slack and Telegram.
A prime example of this is the pump and dump scheme organised by a chat room called ‘Big Pump Signal’, who conspired to promote GVT through a bogus John McAfee twitter account. After sending out a tweet from the account declaring that GVT was the coin of the day, the value of coin increased by $15 in four minutes, with trading volume doubling. The chat group were able to monitor and communicate when the best times were to buy and sell the coin, before the value returned to it’s original cost 19 minutes later. The ability of these groups to communicate on private chats leave the uneducated and overeager traders at risk of falling into their trap.
We have also witnessed a rise of traditional fake news pushes targeting the financial market, creating mainstream media websites that promote false information. Most recently this approach saw a website that appeared as CNN run the story ‘Richard Branson and Elon Musk Invested $17million in a Bitcoin Tech Startup’. This simple approach led to more than 425,000 website visits between September and December.
While these examples of using fake news to exploit the market are not currently widely used, advances in NLG and further development of these schemes may lead to an information arms race between competing firms, with media consumers and targeted instruments being the likely collateral damage.
There are a few single metric tools available that attempt to rate the credibility of stories and track the implications of the story. However, we are working with partners in the financial services to build tools to specifically tackle the impact the rise of fake news has on their business. As with any fake news epidemic, it is important that people trace the origin of their articles they read before making any large investment and utilise these platforms to determine whether or not to trust the information.
From its inception Bitcoin has led the rise of crypto culture worldwide, creating quite a roller-coaster economy in the digital currency sphere. Below Founder and CEO of Chaineum, Laurent Leloup talks Finance Monthly through the yesterday, today and tomorrow of cryptocurrencies.
Founded in 2009, Bitcoin was born from the notion of creating a currency that was independent of any other authority, is transferable electronically instantaneously and has low transaction fees. In its early days, the cryptocurrency was somewhat of an unknown entity to mainstream audiences; attracting a small, but dedicated, following of techies and leading to the creation of similar currencies.
The Bitcoin evolution
Since its inception, Bitcoin has increased in value exponentially throughout the past few years, particularly in 2016 and 2017 as more and more people began accepting cryptocurrency as a credible form of currency and not just a buzzword for tech insiders.
2017 saw a record year for Bitcoin. Starting out at a value of $1,000 in January, the currency hit an all time high of $17,000, a 70% increase, in the first two weeks of December 2017.
Bitcoin’s growth can be down to a number of factors. Firstly, the cryptocurrency model itself enables project developers to bypass banks in order to gather funds. For merchants, there is the benefit of being able to expand to new markets where fraud rates are unacceptably high, or credit cards are simply not available. This creates net results of lower fees, fewer administrative costs and a wider reach across previously inaccessible markets.
The Bitcoin following: from a niche community to the mainstream stage
Bitcoin has always attracted somewhat of a dedicated following. However, this fanbase was often restricted to the crypto community which, although passionate about Bitcoin, was quite an exclusive, niche community largely misunderstood by mainstream audiences.
Social media has played a significant role in the growth of Bitcoin by giving the cryptocurrency community a platform to come together and share their thoughts on the marketplace. For instance, Twitter has a ‘Crypto Group’ where Bitcoin and cryptocurrency enthusiasts can interact and tweet; making it much more accessible for everyday users to become part of the cryptocurrency movement.
Rise of ICOs and cryptocurrencies
As Bitcoin’s presence within the mainstream increased, awareness around blockchain technology and cryptocurrency has grown. With this, the marketplace has seen more and more cryptocurrencies launch through the ICO (Initial Coin Offering) mechanism. Currently the industry is seeing at least three new ICOs launching every week as more investors and developers look to this new fundraising system as a viable way to fund their blockchain projects.
There are many benefits to ICOs which is perhaps why they have become the fastest growing fundraising mechanism in 2017 alone. For organisations who are looking to invest in a project , it is considered a much faster and easier fundraising method, as anyone can start one and is free from geographical restrictions.
Additionally, many people also take interest in the cryptocurrencies because of their liquidity. Rather than investing huge amounts of money in a startup which is locked up in equity of the company, they can offer the opportunity to see gains quicker and take profits out easily.
Nevertheless, whilst cryptocurrencies do offer opportunities to see considerably higher ROI than traditional investments, prices of tokens can be extremely volatile and can be a risky investment. Therefore, investing in these kind of projects should be sought after consulting an expert.
The future of cryptocurrencies
With more and more cryptocurrencies launching, commentators are weighing in on how this will impact the wider industry. Due to the rapid growth of the currency over such a short space of time some are comparing Bitcoin to the ‘dotcom bubble’ in the 90s and early 2000s in that it isn’t sustainable in the long term.
However, in 2017 alone, ICO projects were able to collectively raise over $3billion clearly demonstrating that their significance is only increasing. With more projects expected to launch in 2018 further increasing mainstream awareness around cryptocurrencies, it seems we can expect this trend to remain consistent for the foreseeable future.
What's more, as regulation continues to evolve, ICOs could become very different and we could see them serving many different purposes.
Some commentators have even stated there is a chance they could even replace IPOs and make a fairer and more equally distributed economy, where anyone could become an investor with little risk as a consequence. Tokenisation of capital which provides new levels of liquidity and transparency could become the future as we may end up seeing all kinds of organisations, including larger enterprises, begin to explore the ICO space.
With a brief overview of end of year 2017, Andrew Boyle, CEO at LGB & Co., introduces Finance Monthly to 2018’s potential highlights, adding some thoughts on the prospects for crypto markets, new legislation and fintech.
Last year was an eventful year for financial markets. Globally, it was characterised by a continuation of the equity bull market, strongly performing debt markets and the surge in digital currencies. We expect this year to be equally exciting yet also challenging, with key issues likely to be whether the global bull market will run out of steam, whether disruption or collaboration will be the hallmark of Fintech’s impact on financial markets and if the significant increase in regulation will yield the benefits for which regulators had planned.
It was a banner 2017 for global equity markets, with the MSCI world index gaining 22.40% and reaching an all-time high. The US equity market was boosted by robust economic growth, strong rises in corporate profits, the Fed’s measured approach to unwinding QE and, latterly the potential of a fiscal stimulus from the much-anticipated tax reform bill. In the UK last year, the robust performance of the FTSE 100, was not only boosted by the weak pound since the Brexit vote, but was led by sector-wide factors that supported housebuilders thanks to the help to buy scheme, airlines, with the demise of Monarch and miners, as commodities enjoyed price rises against a weak dollar in a strong second half of the year.
Looking ahead to 2018, the global outlook for the markets might appear challenging. Valuations appear to be full, unwinding of QE may accelerate and bond markets are already showing signs of being spooked by rising inflation. However, it’s the first time since 2008 all major economies in the world are simultaneously growing, and despite being only the second week of the New Year, $2.1 trillion has already been added to the market capitalization of global equities. Growth still looks resilient and equity markets, particularly in the US, have been supported more by innovation in technology and innovative business models. With further advances of tech stocks underpinning the market, the outlook for equities looks more positive than a focus on the actions of central banks alone would imply.
Fintech has been heralded as a major force for disruption in financial markets. Yet looking forward it would appear that collaboration might be the model. Increased interest from large financial companies backing ‘robo’ investment – such as Aviva’s acquisition of Wealthify and Worldpay’s merger with Vantiv, illustrate this trend. Given this development, regulators are taking a closer interest in the impact of Fintech, keen to ensure if they are partnering with established financial institutions that there is no systemic risk to financial markets. One example of the interest from regulators and policy bodies is European Commission’s consultation on Fintech policy, potentially due out later this month.
Another key question is whether 2018 will see the ‘coming of age’ of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin hit £12,000 in December last year, a month after the (CFTC) permitted bitcoin futures to be traded on two major US-based exchanges, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the CBOE Global Markets Exchange. Alongside widespread acceptance of cryptocurrency, this year may well see the BoE invest further in technology based on blockchain in order to strengthen its cyber security and potentially overhaul how customers pay for goods and services. It appears that the blockchain could lead to a change in the very concept of money, but also that the current speculative frenzy is overblown. The total value of the cryptocurrency market is at a new high of $770bn and a recent prediction from Saxo Bank states Bitcoin could reach as high as $60,000 in 2018 before it ‘inevitably crashes’.
One final thought is the impact of MiFID II - this presented financial services firms covered by its measures with some major challenges in the first weeks of 2018. Only 11 of the EU’s 28 member states have added flagship legislation into national laws and the sheer scale of legislation has raised questions that although far reaching, it is too ambitious and full compliance will remain difficult to achieve. Yet 2018 will not give companies any respite as both GDPR and PSD2 will be implemented this year. Roll on 2019 some regulation-fatigued financial firms may say.
Many are fearful of investing, many already did it, others are on the fence as to whether it’s still worth it. Nicholas Gregory, founder and CEO of London-based cryptocurrency enabler CommerceBlock, here provides Finance Monthly with some insight as to whether you’ve missed the boat or not at this point.
The chatter surrounding Bitcoin investments has reached fever pitch in the new year, and the higher its value rises, the louder it gets.
But how do you time an investment in a market like this, and is it worth it?
A massive stumbling block for would-be investors is the fact that nobody inside the industry truly understands how valuable Bitcoin really is. Fair value is difficult to pinpoint, and the market has been gyrating wildly as record high after record high has bowed to the cryptocurrency’s seemingly unstoppable rise.
Meanwhile skeptics continue to question whether Bitcoin has any value at all.
Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway famously called Bitcoin a “mirage” back in 2014, and his criticism still echoes today. This is largely because regulation in many jurisdictions is yet to catch up.
Putting the intrinsic value of Bitcoin aside for a moment, the appeal of cryptocurrency largely depends on whether or not the investor expects other people to want to take it off them at a later date.
If people think Bitcoin has value, then it does. This faith - that it is a store of value and means of exchange - is what has underpinned traditional Fiat currencies ever since stone money was created in Micronesia. Those ‘coins’, which could be so large they weren’t even moved, were also a store of value solely because a community of people agreed they should be.
This same dynamic can lead potential investors to grow nervous over the future value of Bitcoin but, as history shows, it’s nothing new.
I, and my colleagues at CommerceBlock, help companies do business in Bitcoin. So if it’s true that Bitcoin is worthless, then we are in serious trouble.
What makes me more certain than ever that we have a future, is the same excitement that is driving the headlines. Bitcoin promises to be a currency not anchored to the old guard, not beholden to bankers, lawyers, high fees and costly international settlements. It’s a no-brainer for businesses who can accept huge payments from the other side of the world in minutes.
So what impact does this have on the value of Bitcoin? Well, anyone who has observed the astronomical growth in its valuation over the course of 2017 will know that its price has been volatile, to say the least. At the start of the year it was at around $800, before more than doubling to $2,000 in May. Then, in August, it broke the $4,000 mark for the first time. As I write this, Bitcoin is worth over $16,600 just four months later.
However, it’s a leap of faith to chase a market that has risen so dramatically. At the same time, I am one of those who believe bitcoin will be worth $100,000 one day. It’s either that or it will be worth nothing at all.
This is only my opinion. But even if I’m right, I can’t tell you how long that will take or what bumps we will encounter along the way.
In investing, you can be right in the long run, but still lose money. It is best summed up by a retort to famed hedge fund manager Michael Burry, played by Christian Bale, in the film The Big Short, as he defends his decision to short the housing market.
Burry tells a disgruntled colleague: “I may have been early, but I'm not wrong.”
Then comes the reply: “It’s the same thing.”
Barely a day passes by now on the internet when I am not offered to subscribe to the ICO (initial coin offering) of a new currency. If the statistics are to be believed, there are 11,000 of these new currencies, of which 1,200 or so are capable of being traded on the various cryptocurrency exchanges which have popped up around the world in recent times. But why are there so many of these new currencies popping up and how do they differ from one another? Richard Tall at DWF explains.
Cryptocurrencies - the 'next-gen' currency
The first cryptocurrency was Bitcoin, and this has been with us since 2009. Bitcoin has in reality only been in the public consciousness for the last three or four years and most cryptocurrencies have been created within that time period. As it is now mainstream, Bitcoin can be used as a means of payment either through transfer over the internet, or by use of bank cards which are linked to accounts denominated in Bitcoin. In the modern environment, where so few of us use cash, it has the same sort of functionality as a fiat currency, albeit that the numbers of traders and businesses which are prepared to accept it remain in the significant minority.
Like Bitcoin, most new cryptocurrencies have their genesis in smart contracts. A smart contract is a computer protocol which enables a contract to execute automatically. The basis of a smart contract is that if X happens then Y will flow from that. Most of us would recognise that as a conditional contract, but a smart contract enables this obligation to happen in the decentralized world for those who sign up and agree to its protocol.
The rise of the token
The vast majority of new cryptocurrencies do not create their units in the same way as Bitcoin, though. A Bitcoin is created by solving an algorithm, the reward being generated through proof-of-work. Generally, most new cryptocurrencies being made now are offered as a token which is created by the originator and then traded through the blockchain. This is known as a proof-of-stake. An ICO in these circumstances will simply offer tokens for subscription by investors, usually to raise money for the next stage of development of their project, and in many ways an ICO shares many characteristics with an IPO of a development stage company. Many of us will remember the dot com era, where numerous companies sought funds to take themselves to the next stage of development, with the investors being asked at IPO to invest in the idea rather than a revenue, or indeed profit, generating business.
Coins and tokens - the regulator's perspective
The similarities between ICOs and IPOs have not escaped the attention of regulators. An offer of shares or bonds is clearly within the bailiwick of regulators and so both are subject to a host of legislation. However, the general mantra with an ICO and a cryptocurrency is that they are "unregulated." Bearing in mind money laundering and anti-financial crime legislation, "unregulated" is entirely inapt as a tag. Equally, little thought has been given by ICO originators as to the true nature of what is being offered. The SEC (the US Securities and Exchange Commission) has recently ruled that ether (the tokens behind Ethereum) are securities, on the basis that they are an investment contract (investment of money in a common enterprise with an expectation of profit). Accordingly, the SEC's view is that ether offers should have been conducted in accordance with securities laws. Many other regulators are issuing similar warnings, and making the point that simply because a new technology is being used it does not mean that the resulting token is outside long-established principles of consumer regulation. As a broad rule of thumb:
Whether an ICO is of any merit depends ultimately on the utility of the token offered and what it is capable of doing. Clearly the aim of most ICOs is for the value of the token to increase over time, and any investor needs to look closely at whether that will ever come to pass. Equally, those originating ICOs need to exercise extreme caution in relation to the terms of the tokens offered and the jurisdictions into which they are offered. This is a red-hot topic for regulators who definitely do not share the view that this arena is "unregulated".
