This afternoon reports indicate Theresa May, in her speech regarding Brexit negotiations, says the UK “cannot possibly” remain part of the European single market. In addition, the PM has stated that parliament will also get to vote on the final agreement with the EU.
Following the speech, Finance Monthly has heard commentary from the below sources, who have provided their insight into the developments.
Jake Trask, currency analyst, UKForex:
Sterling rose today as the markets welcomed the content of Theresa May’s speech outlining the framework of how the UK will approach its negotiations to exit the EU. The markets appear to have taken heart from the prime minister’s reassuring words, signalling that the UK government will do all it can to avoid a cliff edge scenario, where at the end of the two year process we default to WTO tariffs.
The PM said her preferred approach would be to implement the changes in a staggered manner. This controlled method of exit appears to have calmed market fears, with the proxy for Brexit sentiment, the pound, rising two cents against the dollar throughout the day.
Bruce Johnston, Head of International Finance, Morgan Lewis:
There are no plans for an overall transitional deal, but there may be interim arrangements to minimise disruption for certain sectors of the economy.
Free trade agreements with the EU and the USA will take many years to negotiate (long after the UK leaves the EU). Serious negotiation of free trade agreements cannot start until the exit agreement with the EU is signed (and ratified by the 27 EU countries).
We await the court case in Dublin which (amongst other things) may determine if the UK remains in EFTA after it leaves the EU. It appears that the UK government does not think so, by May’s statements on the single market and the customs union.
Mark Boleat, Policy Chairman, City of London Corporation:
The Prime Minister’s speech today added a degree of clarity for the Government’s Brexit strategy.
We welcome the Prime Minister’s ambition to retain the greatest possible access to the single market, which is important to the UK’s financial and professional services industries.
Passporting rights and access to leading talent – facilitated by the single market – has, in part, helped make Britain the world’s leading financial centre, but the Government fully recognises that protecting these vital industries is a priority.
Trade between the UK and the European Union has helped make our country prosperous. We welcome that Government recognises the value and importance of EU companies seeking access to the services of the City of London.
We also welcome the decision to trade more with existing and new international partners – this has the potential to be the prized trophy of the UK’s decision to leave the EU.
The City has been vocal on the need for a transitional arrangement from the time Britain formally leaves the EU and when the new arrangements come into effect. Following today’s announcement, this becomes an even greater necessity. We would like to see a transitional agreement announced as soon as possible.
Government’s phased implementation plan must avoid a cliff-edge and will be beneficial for firms across all sectors, especially financial and professional services firms. The Government must stick to this commitment.
Britain has long been a magnet for global talent. To continue the sector’s success, with 12% of City workers made up of European staff, it is important the flow of leading talent to the UK continues. We support the wish to maintain the rights of EU citizens currently working in the UK.
Charles Brasted, Partner, Hogan Lovells:
For those who have been listening carefully to Theresa May and the Government in recent months, today was the day when the PM had to face up to the implications of what has already been said. What the PM has done is to reaffirm the primacy of key commitments to taking back control of laws, courts and borders — and to admit that that necessarily rules out membership of the EU's clubs.
Mrs May's aspiration is a bespoke deal that emphasises access, not membership, that seeks to be part of a customs union – but not on the terms of the existing customs union, which preclude the UK striking its own trade deals — and that is based on on-going regulatory consistency and reciprocity. The impression from the EU is likely to be that this is precisely the cherry picking that they have warned against. However, the EU has shown itself able to agree sector-specific arrangements based on these principles and the UK's answer must be to show that it is seeking an agreement that preserves the best of the relationship for the benefit of both sides.
Mrs May has also been keen to reassure businesses and others by highlighting the intention for continuity of laws and rules immediately post-Brexit and for an "implementation phase" that would deliver the full future relationship over time through a smooth and ordered process of realignment.
Every one of the aspirations expressed by the UK Government today will demand exceptional political skill to negotiate and will be complex to implement legally and commercially. The objectives are now clear – the path towards them is uncharted.
Set to present the UK’s plans for the EU exit today, British Prime Minister Theresa May has ruled out any “half-in, half-out” situation, stating that the UK’s 12 point plan aims to not leave the nation with a sort of “partial membership,” but to build a "new and equal partnership" with the EU.
Within the 12 point plan, the PM says the UK intends to trade “as freely as possible,” but the government has not yet revealed much detail about the upcoming negotiations with the EU. It has however stated that the Brexit package talks will commence by the end of March.
It has taken over six months for the UK government to formulate its coming actions, and for now all eyes are on the UK’s intentions in regards to the single market, the customs union, and its trade relationship with the EU in years to come.
In previous reports, EU leaders have indicated that they will not allow the UK to “cherry pick” benefits such as the single market, while letting go of obligations such as the free movement of people. The PM on the other hand has suggested a curb on migration is one of the country’s top priorities.
According to the BBC, Labour's Sir Keir Starmer said: "Preserving our ability to trade successfully in Europe has to be the priority for business. Staying in the customs union is the best way to achieve that."
The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union (EU) had a seismic impact on the global financial markets, and the geopolitics that sustain them. But what if the so-called Brexit referendum had a different result, and Britons voted to remain in the Single Market? Would we be any better off today? This week Finance Monthly heard from Evdokia Pitsillidou of easyMarkets regarding the titled question.
By any measure, the British pound may have certainly had a better fate had Britons voted Remain. Sterling was trading around $1.48 US on the eve of the June 23rd referendum, and even reached $1.50 just after polling stations had closed. Hours later, sterling was down to $1.33, having lost 10% against the dollar and reaching its lowest level in 31 years.[1]
But the bloodbath was not over. By October, the pound had dropped below $1.22 after newly appointed Prime Minister Theresa May signaled she would pursue a “hard Brexit” from Brussels. It was during this period that the sterling found itself trading at 168-year lows against a basket of other currencies.[2]
Although the pound was on a long-tern downtrend prior to Brexit, it is inconceivable it would have depreciated so quickly had the Brexit vote gone in favour of the Europhiles. Had the UK opted to remain, the pound may be lower than it was on the eve of the referendum, but not 18% lower as it is today. Brexit was therefore not just a defeat for the Europhiles, but for the once mighty sterling.
Brexit had the opposite effect on British stocks. The sharp depreciation in the pound was a boon to the export-oriented FTSE 100 Index, which opened 2017 on the longest run of record highs since 1984.[3] By January 10, London’s benchmark index had established its longest winning streak on record, printing nine straight days of record gains.
British stocks have returned nearly 19% since the Brexit referendum and are up more than 28% year-over-year. Underpinning their growth is more than just a weaker local currency. Less than two months after the Brexit vote, the Bank of England (BOE) slashed interest rates for the first time in over seven years and expanded the size of its asset buys in an extraordinary effort to stave off recession. The Bank’s moves may have been almost unthinkable had the UK voted to remain.
Just a few years prior, experts had tipped the BOE to be the first major central bank to raise interest rates. While the Fed beat it to the punch, it highlights just how unlikely the Bank’s rate cut would have been had Brexit gone the other way.
For policymakers, the hefty dose of monetary easing was justified, given they had just made their biggest quarterly downgrade of growth forecasts on record.[4] Thankfully, the British economy has held relatively firm over the past seven months, but that may to change moving forward once the British government triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the formal mechanism for leaving the EU.
Brexit may have also unleashed a wave of pent-up populism across Europe that is threatening to leave Brussels behind. Following the UK vote, nationalist movements in France, Germany and Italy are awaiting their opportunity to break away from Brussels. With elections in France and Germany coming up, investors are bracing for a potentially volatile year in the market.
The outlook on the global market wasn’t good before Brexit, and it certainly isn’t any better in the wake of the landmark vote. Concerns about free trade, economic growth and financial market stability have been exacerbated by Brexit, and the negotiations for the separation have yet to even begin.
A High Court ruling last month stipulated that Brexit cannot happen without parliamentary assent, setting the stage for a bigger legal battle for the British government. Prime Minister May appealed the decision, but may be upheld by the Supreme Court later this month.[5] For the Brexiters, this may mean a contingency plan. For investors, this may mean greater uncertainty about when, and if, Article 50 will be implemented. And as we know, uncertainty is the bane of the financial markets.
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After the New Year, the UK pound and FTSE 100 made significant progress, and according to reports, UK business confidence is at its highest in 15 months, eluding Brexit doomsday predictions.
BDO’s Optimism Index, which indicates how firms expect their order books to develop in the coming six months, increased from 98.0 to 102.2 in December, above its long-term trend. This signals that businesses are continuing to stay resilient following the referendum result, the pre-2017 declining value of sterling and volatility in the global economy.
Finance Monthly reached out to numerous sources this week, to hear their thoughts on the pivotal pushes behind this increased confidence, reasons behind the inaccurate predictions of how the Brexit referendum may have affected UK business, and how this situation may progress in 1Q17.
Alister Esam, CEO, eShare:
Personally, this turnaround wasn’t unexpected – I didn’t buy into the doom and gloom that surrounded Brexit at the time. When we leave the EU, the UK will have a GDP of nearly 25% of the EU and it’s hard to take seriously any worries about us not having a trade agreement. The UK is a great country for business that will soon be released – Europe will remain struggling with inefficiency and a currency that doesn’t work.
People are finally thinking clearly about Brexit and what it means for business. Because the referendum result was so unexpected, people hadn’t really thought through the consequences. Those that did were positive in the first place, and others are starting to see that too, now they have been forced to consider what the implications and opportunities are.
I think people originally focused on the negatives. Now it is really happening they have had to focus on their own plans with positivity and find the not-insignificant opportunities this brings in being able to define our own rules, set our own taxation etc. Furthermore, the negatives were false – people argued leaving Europe meant we couldn’t trade anymore, which was daft. By definition, we will be the most EU-aligned of non-EU countries so we will trade with the EU more than any other non-EU country in the world.
I believe we will still have a tough ride in the short term. There remains uncertainty about how exactly everything will fall into place, and leaving the EU was never good in the short term. – it’ll take time for the benefits to emerge.
The on-going uncertainty is likely to affect UK business optimism over the coming months. European leaders failing to get down and solidify a deal, dragging out negotiations to steal pennies from the UK at the cost of pounds and Euros to both. It’s in no-one interests for negotiations to drag on so let’s hope it can be resolved as quickly as possible.
John Newton, CTO and Founder, Alfresco Software:
A positive side effect of global uncertainty is that it helps to push business resiliency. Enterprises will be open to new competition in a deregulated environment driven by significant political change. This, in turn, will positively force corporations and governments to establish new models, based on best practices.
However, it will be impossible to predict the next five years. Companies should be weary of being too optimistic and instead adapt to become more agile and resilient, whether trade deals are good or bad, inflation or not, and growth or not. Therefore, businesses must focus on bolstering digital core competencies and adopting new ways of thinking at the start of 2017. This will enhance enterprise organisations’ ability to deal with both new threats and beneficial opportunities as they arise. Platform Thinking, will help leading edge enterprises to thrive. It creates a single, scalable, central solution through which organisations can route information, automate processes, and integrate third-party innovation. Additionally, instead of building business plans, new digital enterprises should compose their business outcomes through Design Thinking, which puts the user first and solves problems for them. Using this approach will help enterprises design and adapt digital initiatives to respond faster and engage customers who also face uncertainty.
Deregulation is coming, and enterprises should adapt. For example, Blockchain is impacting our financial markets in the way that party-to-party contracts are managed. In the beginning of 2000, when companies weren’t getting their return on investment in the stock market, they turned to the power of data and peer-to-peer directives. Furthermore, asset-light industries (companies with fewer physical assets, and that tend to require less regulation), will emerge as the marketplace winners. While in the technology industry, computing platforms are evolving so rapidly that it is forcing architects and developers to almost relearn computer science. Cloud platforms, in particular, are changing at astounding rates. New concepts around microservice architectures, deep learning and new data, and compute techniques will again challenge the old way of thinking about things.
UK business optimism is set to be tested but there are huge opportunities for us to adapt and adopt digital transformation objectives. In the Fourth Industrial Revolution, it is no longer about who hasn’t adopted digital technology, but those who have digitally and fundamentally transformed their business, creating a new platform to connect with customers. Think AirBnB and Uber.
Owain Walters, CEO, Frontierpay:
Economic data releases have surprised to the upside in post-Referendum Britain, which is very encouraging to see. Nevertheless, the pound has actually been in steady decline since the result of the Brexit vote and is yet to make a turnaround. What we have noticed, is that the pound has plummeted whilst the FTSE100 has prospered as a result.
We must remember that the FTSE100 is full of companies that derive their incomes from outside the UK, and so as the pound has declined since the Brexit vote, their non-GBP earnings are now worth more. As a result, earnings of the GBP denominated stock in these businesses have improved, however, we must not confuse this with a turnaround in the pound.
I would certainly agree that the catastrophic predictions forecast on the immediate impact of the Brexit decision have been proven wrong. Unemployment continues to fall, GDP growth has continued, and we have even seen some high-profile announcements somewhat quashing forecasts of a halt of foreign interest in British business.
However, we can’t thank the pound for these encouraging developments. In truth, the fact that Article 50 has yet to be triggered means that Brexit has yet to have any significant impact on the UK. What we are currently seeing is a great deal of volatility in the markets as we wait to find out what kind of relationship the UK will ultimately have with the EU.
As long as the future of this relationship remains unestablished and the government continues to keep any details of a deal firmly behind closed doors, I believe it’s too early to tell if the predictions for Brexit will be wrong in the long term. That said, in at least the first quarter of 2017, I think we can expect to see further falls in the pound, a jump in inflation and steady GDP growth of around 0.5%.
Lynn Morrison, Head of Business Engagement, Opus Energy:
We recently surveyed 500 SME decision makers to find out how they had been affected by the Brexit referendum result. We found them to be unmoved, with 72% stating that their confidence was either unchanged or increased. Looking forward, it was extremely encouraging to find that nearly two-thirds of the respondents say they expect their income to increase and even expect to grow their business, in terms of headcount, by up to 20% in the next two years.
Considering the initial market reaction to the Brexit result, as well as the sharp decline in the value of the pound and initial drops in the FTSE250, this positive response may seem unexpected; especially given how many larger, more established businesses have been reporting otherwise. It’s likely that this reaction stems from SMEs’ focus on working within the confines of the UK borders. The Department for Business Innovation & Skills estimates that less than 10% of all small and medium sized businesses export directly to the EU, and only a further 15% are involved in EU exporting supply chains. This makes it easier for SMEs to embrace a new trading landscape, possibly less restricted by EU red tape, enabling them to continue with a ‘business as usual’ mentality.
Another source of SME confidence may be the fact that between the declining pound and the potential changes in our trade relationship with the EU, the UK is likely to look to its own businesses to help fill the gaps on products and services that had previously been imported.
Making up 99.3% of all private businesses in the UK, and with a combined annual turnover of £1.8 trillion, SMEs are the lifeblood of our country and their success is invaluable. I think it’s therefore hugely encouraging for the future of British business, and indeed our future relationship with the EU, that SMEs are expecting to not only survive the result of Brexit, but also to thrive in the coming years.
Salvador Amico, Partner, Menzies LLP:
Levels of business confidence were high before the Brexit vote in June 2016 and many businesses were optimistic about the future, bolstered by a strong Pound and UK economy. The Brexit vote result caught many by surprise and created shockwaves across UK businesses.
However, since the vote, it is evident that the world hasn’t ended and that things have moved on. Businesses, particularly those with extensive export operations, who were concerned pre-Brexit vote, have found renewed confidence brought on by the weak Pound and continuing enthusiasm by suppliers and customers to trade with UK businesses.
The UK economy is fundamentally strong and is still considered a world leader in many sectors such as tech and manufacturing. Even the property sector, which is often considered to be struggling in the UK, is benefitted from continuing inward investment, brought about by a weak currency.
Whilst the weak Pound has certainly helped boost business confidence, the UK has proven itself to be a good place to invest for quite some time. Low tax rates and a competitive market presence, combined with strong connections and a creative attitude have long made Britain an attractive place to do business.
Optimism indices have likely been affected by a general feeling that the world hasn’t ended post-Brexit vote, particularly with the majority of business owners who voted for Remain. Many of these businesses are now feeling that everything will be fine.
There has been a real push from businesses in some sectors to break into new markets and to find new customer bases abroad. Whilst there is still much more work to be done, the sense of optimism brought about by a potential increase in competitiveness caused by leaving Eurozone, is hard to ignore.
Dropping tax rates along with the opportunity to introduce new policies to support UK businesses will further boost confidence across the board.
The effects that a weakening Pound would have were perhaps underestimated by some financial commentators, and in particular sectors such as manufacturing, businesses which export will currently be feeling very positive.
It is also important to note that it is perhaps too early to say that the predictions were wrong and we may find that a year down the line the UK economy will look significantly different. This was the case with the effects of the financial crisis in 2008, where it took several years for a ‘new normality’ to resume.
Once Article 50 is triggered it is possible that we may see a further slight dip in confidence if we see the Government move towards a hard Brexit, effectively closing off free access to the EU trade zone.
However, once negotiations begin it will be the media who will play a large part in controlling business confidence through the ways positive and negative news is reported in relation to specific business sectors.
We may see that the Pound is going to remain weak for some time and exporters should make the most of it while they can. There is also still a lot of activity in terms of inward investment coming into the UK and lots of parties looking to make deals and secure contracts. Capitalising on this investment, along with looking to secure the best talent possible – regardless of location – will be key for UK businesses in the coming months.
Problems faced across the Eurozone are very likely to have a knock-on effect for the UK economy and should not be overlooked. Upcoming elections in France and the Italian financial crisis, combined with any slow-downs faced by the EU economy could have a larger impact than many people realise.
The strength of the EU market will be particularly important for businesses selling goods abroad and if that market cools or becomes more turbulent, the ripple effect will be experienced by the UK economy.
Omar Mohammed, Operations and Financial Market Analyst, Imperial FX:
It was a turbulent year in terms of political turnarounds – the unexpected Brexit decision and the unexpected outcome of the U.S election made 2016 one of the most unprecedented years. That caused a lot of loses, suspension of business, re-planning of strategies.
The indices markets in UK and US were on record highs after the Brexit. For instance, FTEE100 is mostly American firms which mainly depends on USD, so whenever the Cable (GBP/USD) is down the FTSE100 is up.
Predictions wrong about the impact of Brexit because of inaccurate opinion polls; both the online and phone polls predicted the majority would vote to remain. The length of the polls needs to extend beyond three days in order to reach hard to reach voters. The less well educated are under-counted in the polls while graduates are hugely over represented.
The first quarter of 2017 expected to be volatile and complicated. The cause of this disarray could be that May herself is muddled. While vowing to make Britain “the strongest global advocate for free markets”, the prime minister has also talked of reviving a “proper industrial strategy”. This is not about “propping up failing industries or picking winners. Her enthusiasm for trade often sits uncomfortably with her scepticism of migration. Consider the recent trip to India, where her unwillingness to give way on immigration blocked progress on a free-trade agreement.
In coming months, UK business will be affected as they will be waiting mid-March for the EU meeting to triggered article 50 which involve heavily on free-trade market and the free movement of European citizens.
Markus Kuger, Senior Economist, Dun & Bradstreet:
Ever since the Brexit vote, the sentiment in the UK has been a melting pot of distinctly differing viewpoints. From Pro-Brexiters to remain campaigners, businesses have been expressing trepidation as the worldwide markets continue to fluctuate. The sterling may have recovered somewhat towards the end of 2016 but has quickly dropped in value, following Theresa May’s hint that the UK will be looking to secure a ‘hard Brexit’. The 14.4% rise that the FTSE 100 posted over the course of last year looks to be a distant memory for the UK; a reason for the end of year boost was arguably due to overseas businesses.
The plain fact is that Brexit has not happened yet and Britain has yet to leave the EU. Against his promise (on which our post-Brexit vote scenario was built on), David Cameron did not invoke Article 50 in the morning hours of 24 June but resigned instead, which has temporarily helped to minimise the effects of the Brexit vote. However, Dun & Bradstreet still expects the Brexit vote to have a significant negative impact on the British economy, especially as ‘hard Brexit’ is now the most realistic scenario.
At the moment, the export-orientated sectors of the economy are benefitting from the weak pound, while domestically-orientated businesses are still being supported by robust consumer spending. That said, the invocation of Article 50, expected towards the end of March, and a potential ‘hard Brexit’ will test the fragile stability of the UK economy, especially as sharply rising inflation rates will reduce households’ disposable income. We strongly recommend that businesses ensure they have the risk management measures in place to deal with the changes. Ensuring that the proper risk solutions are implemented will best prepare a business for any potential market fluctuations.
Although we now expect the government to lay out its Brexit roadmap in the coming weeks, uncertainty will remain high as it will remain unclear if the UK’s and the EU’s positions are compatible and whether a compromise regarding migration controls and market access can be found. Developments in financial services are likely to have a huge impact on the broader UK economy – the financial services sector, including professional services, makes up 11.8% of the UK’s GDP. The impact of firms looking to relocate outside of the UK could have a knock-on effect that leads to further disruption. Our own recent research indicates that 72% of senior financial decision-makers are planning for change post-Brexit. Against this background, we expect businesses to continue to operate smartly and cautiously, while overall prospects in the UK are likely to remain extremely unpredictable in Q1 and beyond.
For context, Dun & Bradstreet recently released a survey on business confidence after Brexit. The results showed that:
(This November 2016 research surveyed 200 senior financial decision makers from medium and large enterprises in the UK.)
Kerim Derhalli, CEO and founder, invstr:
Positive initial data which emerged in the aftermath of the EU referendum has been the catalyst for an ongoing good feeling among businesses, with positive momentum offsetting any continuing political uncertainty.
The UK economy performed well in the run up to June 23, with GDP growth at 2.5%, which helped to cushion any perceived negative impact. Since then, businesses have been buoyed by positive consumer data which has remained broadly optimistic.
UK businesses focused on exports – many of which feature in the FTSE 100 – have enjoyed a boost from cheaper sterling, and are becoming more competitive overseas. Cheaper comparative labour is also having a knock-on positive affect for exporters.
In addition to this, the UK services sector contributed to a 0.6% growth in the economy in the three months following the Brexit vote, fuelling confidence through the end of 2016 and into 2017.
What many observers failed to recognise in the build up to, and immediate aftermath, of the Brexit vote, is that the UK and London in particular still remain highly attractive to international investors.
The core fundamentals that make the UK a good place to do business are still present, and will remain whether the country is within or out of the EU.
The City of London is a world leader in attracting business talent, legal institutions are among the most respected in the world, and UK universities lead the way in innovation and research, continuing to draw students from across the globe. Plus, the UK has the lowest corporate tax rate in the G7 – making it attractive for businesses – and the commercial property sector remains a desirable asset globally.
Predictions underestimated the strength of the UK economy, and the country’s role as a global provider of world-class goods and services. The UK has plenty of reasons to remain optimistic about the future.
Political uncertainty will be the main driver behind any lack of optimism for businesses in 2017. At the moment, the Government looks no closer to confirming any specifics around the terms of agreement between the EU and the UK and, if uncertainty drags on, it could prove a drain on confidence.
That said, a cheaper pound and better global growth prospects, as well as all of the positive business investments we have already seen throughout the end of 2016 and early 2017, will help to offset the uncertainty. This, in combination with the ongoing good data, will serve to strengthen business and consumer sentiment.
We would also love to hear Your Thoughts on this, so feel free to comment below and tell us what you think!
It has been now more than a year since the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) issued its recommendations addressing base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS). Following this initiative, Europe has embraced the BEPS Project and has passed various directives at a rapid pace, thus actively contributing to changing the international tax landscape. One of the biggest milestones reached so far is the Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive, which was passed by the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) in July this year.
The measures of this Directive are expected to have a significant impact on the tax landscape in Europe. Most EU countries are thus already reforming their taxation systems and proposing new tax incentives in compliance with the latest standards.
Luxembourg has not escaped this trend and is adapting its tax framework to both the OECD-BEPS standards and the new EU requirements, while also ensuring that it remains attractive. Luxembourg’s recent announcement of a progressive decrease in the corporate income tax rate, from 21% to 18%, marks one of the first steps towards remaining competitive, and will lead to a global income tax rate of circa 26% in 2018. The government is already considering a further decrease in the corporate income tax rate, but a final decision will not be taken before an assessment of the effects of the BEPS Project and related measures on the State budget is made.
Bearing in mind the above developments, a key element of the country’s competitiveness undoubtedly remains its economic strength and stability. Major rating agencies have confirmed the country’s 'AAA' rating with a stable outlook. And it is further expected that Luxembourg will continue to experience growth superior to the European Union and Eurozone average, which is particularly noteworthy given the current changes in the international corporate tax framework. Additionally, in the context of Brexit, Luxembourg is well positioned compared to other EU countries as a leading centre in Europe for investment funds (in second place worldwide after the USA), and investors can rely on its long-standing business-friendly environment as well as on fewer bureaucratic and administrative hurdles.
Looking into the future, it is clear that the Luxembourg tax landscape will continue to evolve to keep pace with international tax changes. In the short term, the main trends that are likely to remain dominant are a continuing and increased focus, by the Luxembourg and other local tax authorities, on transfer pricing and substance requirements. This has already resulted in the recent release of a new bill in Luxembourg providing further guidance on applying the arm’s length principle from 2017 onwards, in line with the work on Actions 8-10 of the BEPS Project (on ‘Aligning Transfer Pricing Outcomes with Value Creation’). The bill outlines the legal framework for a comparability analysis and emphasises that the arm’s length principle must be applied to all controlled transactions. Another trend that will inevitably derive from all these evolutions, and from tax transparency and automatic exchange of information becoming the new normal, is the increase in tax audits and cross-border tax disputes.
These international developments will heavily affect multinational groups, which face the challenge of understanding the changes, delineating the unique ways in which their organisations are affected, and mapping out the best way to respond. Companies must therefore start reshaping their structures and business models, where appropriate. They must also ensure that they have adequate transfer pricing and supporting documentation to outline how they have determined the arm’s length principle for their intra-group transactions in the context of a wider value chain analysis, and to demonstrate that they have the right economic substance and business rationales underlying their transactions. This will definitely be key in a world in which tax authorities worldwide have, more rapidly than ever, greater access to all taxpayers’ data.
In light of the UK’s Chancellor Philip Hammond’s Autumn Statement today, where he vowed to make the UK economy "resilient" in its exit from the EU, and noted an expected economy of higher borrowing and slower growth, Finance Monthly has heard from several sources who have given their opinions and comments on the Chancellor’s announcements. The comments below range regarding the productivity investment fund, tax free personal allowance, and the new NS&I savings bond, to the fintech sector, economic forecast, IR35 tax legislation, and general funding in infrastructure, R&D and more.
You can read about the key points delivered in Hammond’s Autumn Statement here.
CEO and Co-Founder of MoneyFarm, Giovanni Daprà:
Tax free personal allowance
By raising the tax free personal allowance and higher rate threshold, the government is providing Brits a terrific opportunity to save and invest more money. By 2020 when these changes are in full effect, people earning £30,000 will have close to an additional £300 in their purse each year while those earning £50,000 will be as much as £1,700 better off. Investing this money for the future, as it is earned, is an incredibly easy way to grow wealth over time.
News savings bond
The new savings bond announced today is a reminder from the government that interest rates are low so Brits need to consider an alternative to cash savings. Chancellor Hammond has provided a potential solution in terms of capital preservation – however a 3 year term at 2.2% will tie up money. Some expectations suggest inflation may shoot above the target 2% during that time frame, in which case locking money into this bond may hinder wealth growth.
This is one option but each individual needs to look at their personal circumstance and financial goals to see if a savings bond is a good solution for them. There are other alternatives to cash savings in the investment market, the growth of robo-advice has helped make this more affordable.
Kerim Derhalli, CEO and Founder of invstr:
Much has been made of the recent dip in venture funding within fintech, but we’re simply observing the typical cycle of an innovative environment. The fintech boom has seen rise to many impressive products, but also a large quantity of lower level pretenders who will, naturally, fall by the wayside. Venture capitalists have now reached a point where only the best ideas with real longevity will find funding.
The key for foreign investors looking to invest in the booming UK fintech scene is consistency. By essentially maintaining the status quo in today’s statement, Mr Hammond has gone a way to restoring calmer waters following the tidal wave of concern following Brexit and Donald Trump’s election. The reality is that, despite various forecasts, no one really knows what Brexit means so businesses will look to reduce their own volatility until details emerge.
The City is going to remain the hub of finance and fintech, irrespective of Brexit. The likes of Barclays and HSBC have already said as much. If a fintech start-up wants to succeed it needs to be where it’s at – which is the UK. For now, the outlook doesn’t look too bad.
Markus Kuger, Senior Economist at Dun & Bradstreet:
In the UK government’s first major economic statement since the shock Brexit vote, Chancellor of the Exchequer Phillip Hammond has announced a series of new measures designed to alleviate the economic pressures facing businesses in the UK. Firms looking to combat the continued slowdown of business growth and navigate fluctuating global markets should turn to data as the key to unlocking smart growth and mitigating risks.
A bleak forecast was expected from the UK government, and similarities with the US, following the surprise ascension to power of Donald Trump, won’t go unnoticed in the globalised business world. It’s also important to note that the long-term impact of Brexit is yet to be felt, as Article 50 is only likely to be invoked in Q1 of next year.
With levels of uncertainty remaining very high, Dun & Bradstreet is maintaining its ‘deteriorating’ outlook for the UK’s country risk rating. The two downgrades we have made to the UK’s rating since the referendum make the UK the worst performing economy in 2016, in terms of rating changes. In this light, we remind companies that it’s crucial to carefully assess growth opportunities, while preparing for the far-reaching negative implications of Brexit.
Geoff Smith, Managing Director of Experis UK & Ireland:
In response to the £23bn Productivity Investment Fund
It’s pleasing to see the Government pledge billions of pounds worth of investment into the tech and science sectors in a bid to create more highly-skilled and better-paid jobs. Despite high employment levels in the UK, productivity remains low, part of which is down to the rise in low-paid, low-skilled jobs, following the economic crisis, so it’s encouraging to see the Chancellor attempt to turn things around.
However, if we’re to see an improvement in wages and living conditions, it’s vital that we upskill the tech sector as quickly as possible. Organisations are struggling to find the right talent, and as a result, demand and remuneration for IT professionals continue to grow, with cloud, IT security and mobile skills most in demand, according to our recent Tech Cities Job Watch research.
Upskilling will be vital to success for businesses that want to retain their best talent. By offering the right training and development opportunities, organisations can support their employees in learning the latest skills as these evolve. This needn’t be a complicated or expensive process – a lot of the skills that IT professionals already have are easily transferrable.
To take advantage of the Government’s funding boost, businesses need to think about building their optimum teams for the future. We work closely with our customers to ensure they have a long-term workforce solution in place when it comes to anticipating what skills will be needed three to five years from now, and the IT know-how required to deliver business success.
In response to the changes to IR35 tax legislation
While HMRC’s intentions to amend existing IR35 legislation in a bid to crack down on tax avoidance should be lauded, we’re concerned about the impact that the change in regulation will have on the IT sector. In an industry where organisations are already struggling to find the right talent, there is a serious risk of ‘brain drain’, whereby projects could be ground to a halt until they find individuals willing and able to work under the new regulations. In fact, we wouldn’t be surprised to see how such a change might encourage existing IT professionals to set their sights abroad to countries courting their talent in a post-Brexit world.
To mitigate against any likely risk, organisations should prepare for these changes now, and also optimise their use of talent for the long term. This can be done in various ways. Firstly, invest in Employed Consultants (ECs) that are permanently employed by recruitment companies and sit outside the scope of the legislation. ECs will be a steady investment for any project, and will offer organisations cost savings and flexibility. Secondly, if developed correctly, Statement of Work projects that clarify deliverables/results, resources, costs, and timelines will help ensure that all Personal Service Company (PSC) work is compliant with IR35 requirements. Finally, consider implementing a Managed Service which will help reduce the time taken to process a high number of contractors, by transferring all the admin and risk to the master vendor.
Lucy-Rose Walker, CEO of Entrepreneurial Spark:
The Chancellor’s pledge to provide an economic environment that drives productivity and supports growth sounds great for entrepreneurs, but we’re keen to see more support for early stage and scale-up businesses in the form of tax relief, access to finance and support for employing and developing people.
On broadband investment
Technology is a great enabler for business growth and here at Entrepreneurial Spark we’re seeing growing momentum across the UK in the technology sector. Investing in broadband will help more internet based businesses to grow, however many of our Chiclets and alumni are facing issues in accessing basic broadband services, so access for all should be prioritised before investment is made into 5G networks. We are currently looking to the future to help entrepreneurs right across the UK through a virtual business growth enablement programme so access to broadband is essential to help us deliver this.
On R&D funding
Investment into R&D is crucial for British firms to compete in a global economy. The commitment of £2 billion per year in tax breaks between now and 2020 for research and development will certainly help, however we’d like to see more done to help start-ups and scale ups access finance to help them grow.
On regional investment
The increased support for economies outside of London will help to strengthen entrepreneurship and economic growth across the UK through schemes such as City Deals and investment into regional transport infrastructure.
On the British Business Bank VC Fund
Unlocking £1bn in finance for growing firms through the British Business Bank as venture capital funding is a great step forward in helping start-up and scale-up businesses to invest in growth.
On Corporation Tax
Sticking to the previously announced tax roadmap is a good move for the Chancellor, reducing corporation tax to 17% by 2020 as previously planned is crucial at this time of uncertainty for British business. We hope this will see continued investment into UK start-ups.
Jake Trask, currency analyst at UKForex:
Sterling fell this afternoon as Philip Hammond announced a raft of measures in an effort to stave off a potential post-Brexit slowdown as we head into 2017.
The pound jumped earlier, as measures to tackle a lack of productivity were announced. However, this good news was tempered by the feeling that the statement didn’t go far enough with regards to infrastructure projects and other measures to promote growth. After an initial snap higher, the pound fell away as investors were left disappointed by the Chancellor’s stimulus package.
Ben Brettell, Senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown:
We might have a new chancellor but Philip Hammond’s speech today came straight out of the George Osborne playbook.
Like his predecessor he was keen to stress the economic positives in his opening remarks, highlighting that the IMF predicts the UK will be the fastest growing major economy this year, with employment at a record high.
To be fair to Mr Hammond, the economy has proved surprisingly resilient in the wake of the vote to leave the EU. Nevertheless forecasts were unsurprisingly downgraded, to 1.4% next year and 1.7% the year after.
Also predictable were the abandonment of the commitment to eradicate the deficit by 2019/20 and the announcement of a mild fiscal stimulus, focused on housing and infrastructure, and with an emphasis on regional development and improving productivity.
This focus on productivity was welcome, and long overdue. The UK has fallen behind in productivity for too long, though it should be noted that promising to tackle the problem is much easier than finding a solution.
Danny Cox, Chartered financial planner at Hargreaves Lansdown:
We saw from the popularity of the NS&I ‘pensioner’ bonds introduced back in January 2015, how savers are desperate for a better return on their cash. With no end to low interest rates in sight a new bond aiming to pay 2.2% over 3 years and a limit of £3,000 is a decent gesture, but with inflation rising and heading toward 3%, its unlikely money in this new bond savings will do anything but go backwards.
Ray Withers, CEO of Property Frontiers:
This statement was less show-stopping than usual, though not without its moments. Hammond is apparently keener on setting top-level economic policy than laying out specific spending measures, which will sensibly (if less entertainingly) be left for individual departments. His overarching themes included easing pre-referendum austerity commitments, more (and less glamorous) spending on infrastructure and housebuilding, and help for struggling families.
The best way to help working people is simply to fix the economy, and we are hopeful that Hammond's moves on that front will be successful.
More interestingly for those of us in the industry, however, the Chancellor today cemented the place of housebuilding as the cornerstone of Mrs May's refashioned 'working for everyone' economy.
There is important work to be done on that front. 'Just about managing' families are more than twice as likely to rent privately as to own their own homes and the Treasury is clear about its intention to help would-be buyers get a foot on the ladder.
The main pledge today - a £2.3bn fund for 100,000 new homes in high demand areas - is relatively substantial, but even smarter is the focus on infrastructure spending in ways and places that support new development.
An encouraging takeaway from this supposedly final autumn statement is a clear indication that the government understands the need to make the rental sector more affordable in addition to beefing up its traditional focus on housebuilding.
With landlords still reeling from Osborne's final statement, we had been hoping that Hammond's first would also offer them some conciliatory breathing room in this area. A reversal of the recent changes around stamp duty and tax relief on mortgage payments, as a string of industry bodies have called for, was always a long shot and did not happen.
Indeed, the prospect of a silver lining of any kind faded fast with news overnight heralding a now-confirmed ban on lettings fees. The Chancellor in fact targeted landlords specifically with the rebuff: 'landlords appoint letting agents and landlords should meet their fees'.
A ban of this kind is something that has been the subject of debate for some time, and so not altogether surprising. Scottish renters already benefit from something similar, while English households reportedly face average fees of £337 per year. Some of those fees are indeed overinflated, but the key question is: who will eat the cost?
It is not difficult to imagine a farcical parlour game in which the Treasury passes the cost from tenants to agents, who pass it to landlords, who in turn pass it back to tenants. The only part of the chain at no risk of incurring the cost is the Treasury itself, and indeed a subsidy for agents to charge extortionate fees is ridiculous.
But this is indicative of a wider and more worrying misunderstanding in the government's handling of the private rental market: it is largely treated as a zero sum game in which losses for landlords are automatically wins for tenants. That is not the case.
With any luck, the repercussions of this new ban will focus the debate on the balance of pressures affecting every part of the rental supply chain - including landlords. Recent moves giving the Bank of England powers to limit overstretched buy-to-let mortgages, for example, seem like a better way of discouraging the darker side of the rental market than squeezing profits for all landlords.
We wish the Chancellor great success with his new program, and have faith that the pendulum will swing back if the desired corrections to the housing market do underwhelm. In the meantime it is not such a bad time to be a landlord: mortgage rates are at historic lows, and Savills projects rent increases of around 19% across the country in the next five years.
On a more local and self-centred note, we are delighted at the confirmation of a £27m expressway connecting our hometown of Oxford with Cambridge via Milton Keynes. Congestion is probably the main constraint on the UK's twin knowledge economies, and shortened commutes will be a welcome boost to our own staff morale, when it eventually happens.
Charles Owen, Founder of CoInvestor:
Hammond’s announcement to reduce the Money Purchase Annual Allowance is likely to come as a blow to those who currently benefit from double tax relief on their pensions. However, significant tax relief can still be found through investing in alternative assets, such as those under the Enterprise Investment Scheme and Venture Capital Trusts.
It is becoming increasingly important that investors assess how they can diversify their portfolio to protect themselves against economic volatility. Our research has shown that half (48%) of mass affluent Britons who decided to act on pensions freedoms now feel more in control of their own investments and 38% have already benefitted from alternative tax-efficient investments. Considering the decreasing state support and the growing mistrust in pension schemes, we expect this trend to continue as Britons look to take growing their pensions into their own hands.
Supported by Eurojust, as well as Europol’s European Cybercrime Centre (EC3) and the Joint Cybercrime Action Taskforce (J-CAT) and the European Banking Federation (EBF) the second coordinated European Money Mule Action (EMMA) culminated in the arrest of 178 individuals. Law enforcement agencies and judicial authorities from Bulgaria, Croatia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Moldova, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, United Kingdom, Ukraine, the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and United States Secret Service participated in the international operation.
Across Europe, 580 money mules were identified and the national law enforcement agencies interviewed 380 suspects in the course of the action week (14-18 November 2016), with overall reported losses amounting to EUR 23 million. During the week of the joint action, Eurojust and Europol set up a command post and a judicial coordination centre to assist the national authorities, cross-check all incoming data against the databases and collect intelligence for further analysis. Europol also deployed mobile offices to Italy and Romania. The successful hit on this wide-spread crime was supported by 106 banks and private partners.
The second EMMA action week is the continuation of a project conducted under the umbrella of the EMPACT Cybercrime Payment Fraud Operational Action Plan [1] and was prepared through two coordination meetings at Eurojust and one at Europol. This priority area targets perpetrators of online and payment card fraud. From all reported money mule transactions in the scope of this operation, 95% were linked to cyber-enabled criminal activity.
Building on the success of the first EMMA operation, the second coordinated action banded together new partners among the police, judicial bodies as well as the banking sector. Starting today, the fight against money muling is underscored by a four-day prevention campaign in the participating countries. The multilingual communication campaign aims to raise awareness about the consequences of this crime both to the international, as well as the national audiences [3].
Michèle Coninsx, President of Eurojust, said: “To effectively tackle money mules, we need seamless cross-border cooperation among judicial and law enforcement authorities with the private actors. It is important to understand that money laundering may on the surface seem to be a small crime, but is orchestrated by organised crime groups, that is what we need to inform the public about. Therefore, the European Money Mule Action II is paramount to stop people being lured and recruited into aiding serious crime, to break this crime link, by being aware of who is behind this type of crime.”
Koen Hermans, Assistant to the National Member for the Netherlands, commented: “As money mules are an essential chain in every financial cybercrime criminal organisation, it is of the utmost importance to target these individuals as well. The critical success factor in this highly effective money mule action is the close cooperation between private, law enforcement and judicial actors, in order to deter offenders in Europe, and thereby reduce crime.”
Steven Wilson, Head of Europol’s European Cybercrime Centre, said: “The European Money Mule Action is a successful example of public-private cooperation at the closest level. The results of this second edition demonstrate a very strong connection between cybercrime and the illegal transactions identified. Law enforcement, judges and prosecutors working together with the banking partners can crack down on extensive criminal networks either knowingly acting as money mules or misusing people who are duped into facilitating financial and other forms of crime. Furthermore, education also remains a powerful tool for law enforcement: EMMA has now grown in participation, bringing the awareness campaign to a larger public.”
Keith Gross, Chair of the European Banking Federation Cyber Security Working Group, said: "EMMA is now seen as a benchmark and a prime example of how law enforcement agencies, the financial sector and other key stakeholders join forces in tackling the illegal activity of money muling across Europe. This initiative can only go from strength to strength as more and more countries participate strategically and operationally."
(Source: EUROJUST)
A commentary from Rick Nicholls, Managing Director, Bastien Jack Group Ltd, UK property developer.
In short, we have opportunity.
Initial shock at the prospect of leaving the EU sent the markets into decline, but have they not reacted pretty much as anticipated? Never letting a crisis go without opportunity, selling high to force a low, and then buy back? Since then there has been some indication stability is returning to the markets though GBP to USD and Euro are still trading lower. This is a good thing for UK exports, making them more competitive, assisting those companies that rely on export markets to grow. The UK vote for Brexit probably doesn't mean that the housing market in the UK is about collapse either. While some uncertainty in the short term may reduce house price growth, for the longer-term property investor, this could be a good opportunity for investing.
The foreign property investor has a boost in value-for-money
In the 24 hours after the Brexit vote, the value of sterling fell on foreign exchange markets. Not by as much as predicted but by around 6% against the euro and 8% against the dollar. As I'm writing this, the pound is now worth €1.11. This fall means the European property investor has more sterling to spend.
Demand for property, specifically in London from foreign investors is still likely to increase, interest has been high from China and Asia as their currency exchange has automatically allowed them a discount on current prices. This though is likely to bea short window of opportunity as we see markets recover from the initial shock.
Domestic demand will remain strong
Demand from home buyers and renters probably won't collapse either.
There is concern that demand for housing will fall in London and the UK. However, parliamentary research produced for the 2015 Parliament put demand at between 232,000 to 300,000 new housing units per year through to 2020. Demand for new homes is exceeding supply by around 150,000 every year. This demand, fed by the number of new households created each year, is unlikely to fall below the level of supply.
Immigration will probably remain strong
One of the main negotiations the UK and EU will have to discuss is the free movement of people. Despite the ‘Leave' campaign suggesting a limit to immigration, we now understand there needs to be movement but objective negotiations will have take place. This will form a significant part of the negotiations to leave the EU.
Outside the EU, the Prime Minister's current visit to India has the subject of immigration firmly on the agenda for a post Brexit trade deal.
Fundamentals of the UK Property Market
The uncertainty of the exact outcome of Brexit may cause the property investor a little nervousness, but the fundamentals for UK property remain strong.
In terms of capital growth, there are a number of comparable data choices but the Real House price tracker provides more meaningful guide to house prices and has been adjusted for the effects of inflation over the same period. Results confirm the increases in house prices have risen faster than inflation, and includes the last recession where the fall can be seen as a correction when compared to the overall property performance.
There has been widespread comment as to the likely effects on house prices, with falls of between 5% and 10% for areas outside London, though little evidence can be found to support this so far.
The BTL investor has also seen positive movements since 2001 with the size of private renters beginning to grow again.
Annual rent rises too have accelerated in recent years and these are not limited to London. Bristol and Brighton both enjoyed increases, averaging circa 18% in 2015 compared to the previous year. The insurer Homelet reported similar rises in the North (Newcastle upon Tyne and Edinburgh) with around 16% over the previous year. Ultimately the increases are attributable to what's happening in their specific area and will be influenced by strong fundamentals. Perhaps Hull can expect some positive growth when it is crowned City of Culture?
Rents in London have continued to rise with greater pace than other areas in the UK but have slowed since 2014, therefore a narrowing of the rent inflation gap between London and the rest of the UK.
Even with the recent policy change for buy-to-let investors paying additional stamp duty, more people have turned to BTL investments perhaps as an alternative to low interest rates, bolstered with the knowledge the pace of house building has not kept up with demand therefore sustaining their investment. At the time of the referendum result, there was speculation the base rate would reduce from 0.5% to 0.25% which did take place in August. The Bank of England indicated they would consider reducing further if the economy worsened, which so far has not been the case. It was also confirmed at the time, they also would add money to support confidence and restrict banks freezing liquidity, if not this would probably cause a further credit crunch and restrict mortgage finance. The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, confirmed the reserve of £250bn can be made available if required.
Carney further commented the substantial capital held and large liquidity gives banks the flexibility to continue to lend to businesses and individuals even during challenging times. This suggests provision and safeguards are in place to maintain current lending to suit demand.
Since the referendum, the markets have rallied well and only recently fallen as investors are perhaps concerned that central banks around the globe are easing up on the monetary policies given the uncertainty of the US election result.
In the UK, mortgage approvals by the main banks increased in September after a 19-month low in August. They were lower than the year before but speaking with our local agents, they suggest it's down to a lack of supply of new build property rather than purchasing confidence.
There are four main areas for focus as we get to grips with the prospect of the UK outside the EU.
1) Calm - we have some indication this is already with us; the markets do seem to have calmed. This is probably due to all the positions the markets took on ‘Remain' have now well and truly played out. It's not over yet though, the volatility is set to continue until Article 50 has been triggered and a new directional plan from the government for the UK to leave is known.
2) Change - Nothing ever stays the same, what works for today may not be right for tomorrow. A pertinent example is Kodak, they tried to ignore new technology hoping it would go away by itself on the basis of it being too expensive, too slow, too complicated etc. It wasn't and their market changed irreversibly in a relatively short period of time, moving from wet film to digital technology.
3) Opportunity - Leaving the EU does provide opportunity. With price correction, there is opportunity to procure better land deals than prior to the referendum, as there may be fewer developers with available funding. Contractors had full order books and build costs had become very high prior to the referendum. We are aware some development contracts have been cancelled as a result of Brexit. Therefore, there might be more opportunity to reduce build costs as price elasticity plays out. The current volatility will ease. The fact the UK has to build more houses to meet demand won't change.
Bastien Jack Group Ltd has a strong project pipeline and always procures sites which have strong fundamentals and in areas where people want to live. There is a huge amount of due diligence which goes into every site appraisal including courting many local agents and advisors to confirm local demand and Gross Development Values. Speaking with agents in our pipeline areas, they have confirmed confidence is still strong and enthusiastic house viewings are still going ahead. As long as lending is still being offered and liquidity remains within the economy, there remains a great opportunity for us to progress.
(Source: Bastien Jack Ltd)
By Don Smith
Despite a run of better than expected UK economic data since the Brexit vote – including 0.7% second-quarter expansion, beating estimates – financial markets are increasingly concerned about the outlook for the country’s economy and its currency.
This can be seen most dramatically in sterling’s plunge on the foreign exchanges, which shows little sign of abating. On a trade-weighted basis, the pound declined 15% between the June 23 referendum and October 12, while it has moved from 0.76 to 0.90 versus the euro over the same period.
Some bounce back from this sharp slide appears likely, but there’s little doubt that sterling’s underlying trend remains firmly downwards.
Although the UK economy should steer clear of recession, the anticipated broader effects of Brexit may soon become more evident. As a result, growth is expected to slow next year.
Consequently, the Bank of England (BoE) may cut interest rates further to provide additional support. The next move would likely be a decrease to 0.1% (from 0.25%), but this might not occur until mid-2017.
With interest rates already so low, and an uncertain path ahead for the economy, the BoE will exercise caution when deploying the dwindling number of arrows in its quiver. It will therefore likely attempt to influence interest rate expectations ahead of any actual move, continuing to issue a very dovish message to the markets.
While inflation is expected to keep rising, the BoE will continue to regard this as a short-term phenomenon, which doesn’t challenge the longer-term low-inflation outlook.
At the same time, sterling’s steep fall was largely unexpected. The pound is being driven by psychological forces, technical moves and speculative reasoning, all of which can be especially volatile and therefore very hard to predict.
The significance of the UK’s decision to leave the EU, and very likely the EU single market, is immense. According to leaked Treasury documents, a so-called “hard Brexit” could cost the UK up to €73 billion annually, leading GDP to underperform by as much as 9.5% in the coming 15 years.
It’s worth noting that the economy is highly dependent on trade and that, in contrast to the euro, the pound operates without the protection of a solid current account position. With the potential to fall a further 5-10%, sterling is thus left hugely exposed as we move into a period of major change for the UK’s network of trading relationships.
As far as its impact on the domestic economy is concerned, this is something of a double-edged sword: good for exporters but bad for consumers, whose spending power will likely weaken due to the effect of a short-term burst of higher inflation as import prices increase.
While there may be a backdrop of solid economic data, sterling remains vulnerable due to the current account position of the UK, which runs a deficit of about 7% of GDP – by far the largest in the G20 and, historically, the largest on record.
This deficit reflects, in the simplest terms, the fact that importers have to sell sterling in order to acquire the foreign currency that pays for goods and services sourced overseas.
As a result, a huge amount of sterling flows into foreign currency markets due to the sheer volume of UK imports in relation to exports. This, in turn, makes sterling’s value in the foreign exchange markets heavily reliant on the purchase of UK financial assets by overseas investors, who have to then swallow the loss.
Without these purchases, the value of sterling would fall even further. BoE Governor Mark Carney aptly captured this sense of vulnerability in his pithy comment about sterling relying on the “kindness of strangers.”
Sterling consequently now appears more vulnerable than any other major currency to investor sentiment.
In search of reasons for the pound’s recent plunge, the early October announcement by Prime Minister Theresa May that Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty would be signed by the end of the first quarter of 2017 surely helped focus investor sentiment on the actual exit event.
Brexit now looks likely to happen no later than the second quarter of 2019 – although, subject to agreement with the rest of the EU, the deadline could conceivably be extended. Given the current rhetoric from key EU politicians, however, there are few signs that the bloc’s attitude to negotiations will soften.
It’s little wonder that markets are increasingly fearful.
Indeed, sterling’s recent plunge may prove just a harbinger. Today, the UK could well be enjoying the relative calm before the real storm that lies ahead.
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Mr. Smith serves as London-based Chief Investment Officer at Brown Shipley, a member of KBL European Private Bankers. The statements and views expressed in this document are those of the author as of the date of this article and are subject to change. This article is also of a general nature and does not constitute legal, accounting, tax or investment advice.
Fluctuations in the real estate market caused by the UK’s vote to leave the European Union are likely to be shorter-lived and less severe than many investors fear, according to LaSalle Investment Management’s mid-year Investment Strategy Annual (‘ISA’) 2016.
The correction in real estate pricing is expected to be largely restricted to the next 18 months, and medium-term capital inflows into real estate will only be interrupted, not reversed, the ISA finds. It also suggests that, given the ultra-low interest rate and bond yield environment, UK real estate yields are only expected to increase by 40-50 basis points by the end of 2017, even if the country’s political landscape remains unclear. Meanwhile in Continental European, investors will continue to edge up the risk curve as long as the economic recovery continues largely unaffected, but will have one eye on risk contagion from the UK.
Overall, the ISA suggests that some of the fears currently surrounding the real estate market in the country may be overdone. Other findings include:
-The overall impact of Brexit on the Private Rented Sector (PRS) should be limited given the ongoing undersupply.
-Real estate assets with long, index-linked leases are likely to outperform over the next few years.
-The predicted capital market re-pricing will lead to an opportune time to enter the UK market – particularly for US dollar-denominated and Japanese yen-denominated investors.
Elsewhere in Europe, the headwinds facing London’s financial markets should help support the real estate market in cities such as Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin, and to a lesser extent Amsterdam and Madrid. Even before the impact of Brexit, office demand across Europe was undergoing a strong renaissance in cities with strong trends in Demographics, Technology and Urbanisation.
Globally, the ISA says the lower for longer situation actually boosts core real estate returns in the short-run, even as it dampens the long-run outlook for rental income growth. As a result, real estate values for stabilized assets in major markets outside the UK may continue to increase or hold steady, but the cyclical recovery in fundamentals will be moving much more slowly now. At the same time, cross-border and domestic capital sources in many countries could narrow their range of target investments to focus on these traditional, core themes.
Jacques Gordon, Global Head of Research and Strategy at LaSalle, said: “Across the globe, the fundamentals of supply and demand appear to be well-balanced going into the second half of the year in most of LaSalle’s major markets. Furthermore, turmoil in capital markets might also open higher-yielding buying opportunities from distressed sellers as the implications of the Brexit vote in the UK ripple around the world. Although the UK has been the epi-centre for political and financial tremors since June 24th, the law of unintended consequences suggests that investors should also closely watch for ripple effects in the EU, North America and even all the way to Asia-Pacific.”
Mahdi Mokrane, Head of Research and Strategy for Europe at LaSalle, said: “The UK, and in particular a dynamic London, home to one of the world’s most liquid, transparent, and investor-friendly real estate markets, is likely to reinvent itself outside of the EU, and the overall prospects for the UK outside the EU could well be broadly more positive than what is implied by current market commentators.
“We expect the forecast correction in real estate pricing to be largely restricted to 2016-17 and medium-term capital inflows into real estate will only be interrupted rather than reversed”.
(Source: LaSalle)
After a night of counting the votes, it was revealed at exactly 06:00 BST this morning that Britain had voted to leave the EU. Prime Minister David Cameron has announced that he is stepping down by October, saying:
“I fought this campaign in the only way I know how – which is to say directly and passionately what I think and feel- head, heart and soul. I held nothing back. I was absolutely clear about my belief that Britain is stronger, safer and better off inside the European Union. And I made clear that the Referendum was about this and this alone – not the future of any single politician, including myself. But the British people have made a very clear decision to take a different path. And as such, I think that the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction. “
The referendum has seen the highest turnout at a UK-wide vote since 1992 – 71.8% with more than 30 million people voting. 51.9 % of those voted to Leave by 48.1%. While England and Wales voted strongly for Britain to leave the EU, London, Scotland and Northern Ireland strongly disagreed with Brexit.
UKIP Leader Nigel Farage, who has been campaigning for Britain to leave the EU in the past two decades, said that today would “go down in history as our independence day”.
As the UK heads for Brexit, the pound has fallen dramatically hitting a 30-year low and plummeting to $1.3236 at one stage earlier this morning. In the opening minutes of trade, the FTSE 100 Index fell more than 500 points before regaining some ground.
Laith Khalaf, Senior Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown comments: ‘Global stock markets have taken a Brexit hit, with European markets actually falling more than the Footsie. Safe haven assets have soared as investors sought security, with gold rising 5% and UK bond yields plunging to historic lows.On the stock market, banks and housebuilders have been hit particularly hard this morning as markets try to factor in the Brexit effect on the UK economy.Sterling has fallen to its lowest level for over 30 years , which will mean holidaymakers heading abroad in the coming weeks will have to dig extra deep to buy foreign currency.Investors should carefully consider their plans and avoid a knee-jerk reaction. The coming days are likely to be choppy on the stock market as it digests the ramifications of Brexit, and further falls are possible.However markets will bounce back at some point, and investors who switch to cash risk buying back into the market at a higher level, and ending up in a worse position than if they had just stayed put.’
Bank of England governor Mark Carney said this morning that: "Some market and economic volatility can be expected as this process unfold. But we are well prepared for this. The Treasury and the Bank of England have engaged in extensive contingency planning and the Chancellor and I have been in close contact, including through the night and this morning.
"The Bank will not hesitate to take additional measures as required as markets adjust and the UK economy moves forward."
As the Article 50 two-year deadline approaches following the referendum results, David Cameron will be put under pressure to "steady the ship" over the coming weeks. Remain campaigners believe that it is possible that the Brexit could result in reverting to trading with the EU under World Trade Organization rules, which would involve exporters being hit by import taxes or tariffs.
After all 32 local authority areas in Scotland returned majorities for Remain, Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said that the referendum results make it “clear that the people of Scotland see their future as part of the European Union".
Germany's foreign minister Frank Walter Steinmeier commented that today is "a sad day for Europe and Great Britain".
Following talks in Brussels, the Greek government has agreed to unlock a further €10.3bn (£7.8bn) in loans from its international creditors, who have also agreed on easing the debt burden of Greece which totals €321bn (£245bn) - worth 180% of the country’s annual economic output. The tranche of bailout funds will be split into two payments: €7.5bn in June and €2.8bn in September. The European officials plan to extend the repayment period and cap interest rates.
However, the debt relief plan is far from the ‘upfront’ debt relief that The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has demanded. Poul Thomsen, director of the IMF’s European programme, said the IMF had made “a major concession”. “We had argued that (debt relief measures) should be approved up front and (now) we have agreed that they should be made at the end of the programme period.”
Germany was in opposition to the ideas about the debt relief, expressing beliefs that a debt relief could not be considered before the end of Greece’s current €86bn bailout programme in mid-2018.
"We achieved a major breakthrough on Greece which enables us to enter a new phase in the Greek financial assistance programme," said Jeroen Dijsselbloem, President of Eurogroup. He added that the package of debt measures would be "phased in progressively". This review was the first one under Greece's third eurozone bailout, secured in August 2015, after which Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called a snap election. This move happened only two days after the Greek parliament approved another round of tax increases and spending cuts, that were demanded by the creditors.
