It was an eventful start to February for global stock markets – and here with some pointers for the first quarter and to remind us of why a long-term view is important, is Kasim Zafar, Portfolio Manager at EQ Investors.
Equity markets had a very strong start to the year, continuing their trend from 2017 and supported by robust economic and earnings growth. For the first time since September 2011, all geographic regions are achieving sustained positive earnings growth – and we see this global ‘synchronicity’ as generally being a good thing.
However, with the S&P 500 (as an example) up 7% year to date in mid-January, the magnitude of this momentum was difficult to justify. Subsequently, we have seen some violent moves in markets. In our view this was a long overdue market correction and see volatility as a healthy sign investors are taking account of the risks inherent in markets.
So our current outlook and base case remain unchanged: global growth has improved markedly and inflation expectations in Europe and the US are increasing. This has led to more hawkish rhetoric from central banks – including plans to increase interest rates and rein back on quantitative easing – but in the grand scheme of things they remain relatively accommodative.
Recently, we have marginally increased our developed equity exposure, and remain excited by developments in Japan & Europe where we are overweight our long term benchmarks. Political stability is set to continue in Japan following the re-election of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. This likely means business as usual and a continuation of structural reforms feeding through into strong corporate earnings and wage growth.
And European growth prospects are now among the most exciting globally, after years lagging other developed markets. Europe is likely to benefit in a similar vein to Asia from ongoing synchronised global growth and its economic recovery is much less mature than that in the UK or the US – with low inflation suggesting that, in spite of strong growth, the economy is some way from overheating.
We still hold a slightly negative view on long duration bonds as inflation may rise in the short term – negatively impacting values. With tight credit spreads we see little value in either investment grade or high yield bonds as an asset class either. So in fixed income we continue to invest in flexible strategies that can take advantage of specific opportunities as they arise.
One impact of globalisation is that corporate revenues and earnings are increasingly spread across the globe. This has a big impact on geographic equity allocation, which has been the basis for traditional asset allocation. In short, it is far less relevant than it once was. As an example, around 80% of revenues generated by FTSE 100 companies (i.e. listed in the UK) come from overseas.
Because of this, and drawing the success of this approach with our Positive Impact Portfolios, the research team are increasingly finding interesting investment ideas from funds that invest in global themes rather than specific geographies.
Healthcare, artificial intelligence and the millennial generation are three examples and you can expect more of this ‘thematic thinking’ in our outlook going forward.
Complexity often means risk, mess and can easily spell disaster. The fund sector for example, is one that requires constant thinking, innovating and success management; and it’s not always so easy, especially with a myriad of tasks and operations to see to internally. Below Lauri Paal, who used to work with Skype, Microsoft, and is now the Chief Product Officer at KNEIP, discusses with Finance Monthly some things the funds industry could learn from the telecommunications industry, from consumer behaviour to outsourcing and standardization.
Telecommunications has changed significantly in the last ten years. The regulation, technology and approach have all been reviewed and the industry has seen obvious moves. For example, voice to data as well as communications switching to apps. Moving into financial services, I have witnessed complex regulation and, like in the telecommunications sector, this is constantly changing and creating new challenges. However, our approach and business practices have not changed.
From the outside it is easy to think that the reason the telecommunications industry changed is because of the rise of 3G and eventually 4G technology. But the truth is that change is driven by consumer behaviour and I like to believe Skype played a part in how people consume technology today. Skype’s approach to voice services radically changed the market as we focused on lower cost and high quality international calls. To guarantee this standard, in traditional telecoms networks, operators needs to connect to hundreds of networks globally. Quantitative measures are used to monitor performance. At Skype we defined quality of service as a core value. We created a live feedback feature which is used after every call and we built an algorithm which allowed business allocation based on customer feedback. We drove this innovation.
Non-core activities were outsourced to specialist organisations. We did not build local infrastructure as many telecommunications agencies have in the past, we outsourced to partner management operations, including pricing and invoice management. The results were positive for everyone with each industries’ players focusing on their specialist industry, ultimately providing the customer with a better experience.
Now, in the financial services industry, I think there are a number of lessons that we can take from the disruptive approach in telecommunications and change the way our sector operates. Too much of our industry is still reliant on manual operations and systems are not streamlined to free up professionals to work on their area of specialism rather than on back office functions. Just as voice has become a secondary asset to data in telecommunications, so to traditional investment - especially assets under active management - is facing an optimisation drive. We need to find solutions that automate compliance processes, giving better focus to core activities.
I think the industry needs to push for standardised back office functions and compliance process. We have spent months preparing for PRIIPS and MIFID II but this needs to pay off for the end user. These complex regulations have focused on transparency but that is only beneficial if it uncovers inefficient historical processes, and force companies to adapt and innovate, ultimately becoming more effective. The industry, jointly with the regulators, should focus on understanding and enabling technology trends. Markets tend to be self-regulating, driven by customer demand. Perhaps keeping the end customer (or investor) in the centre of the process and making sure initial objectives were met post implementation will ensure processes are improved.
Asset managers currently tend to build a lot of solutions internally. The industry should rather take a step back to determine which tasks are core, such as product manufacture and investment management, and which tasks can be considered as non-core. Doing so could lead to greater business efficiencies and could, given time, lead to a more standardized industry, as we all witnessed in the communications industry.
However, I think the biggest lesson we can learn from the communications industry is the need to put customers in control. We are seeing trends towards younger investors demanding more knowledge of and access to their investment choices. We need to look at systems that allow the end user to understand and put them in control, whether they are an asset manager or an individual. If we can simplify processes, then their needs will define the future of the industry. Customers will decide and putting them in control needs to be our mission regardless of the industry.
Despite a swift comeback from the global stocks chaos last week markets have been shaken up.
Dow Jones closed at 24,601 yesterday, up from the 23,860 low of last Thursday. The plunge happened on the 1st of the month, across the weekend, recovered, and dropped further. Dow Jones is now on a recuperating trajectory. The same drop, recovery and further fall also happened within the same time frame for the S&P 500, NASDAQ and the FTSE 100.
All are on their way back up but fears of increased volatility are floating around. Finance Monthly has collated a number of comments and market responses from experts and economists worldwide in this week’s Your Thoughts.
Phil McHugh, Senior Market Analyst, Currencies Direct:
The switch to risk off in the markets was markedly sharp and severe against an air of positive momentum which ran ahead of the fundamentals. The S&P index fell by more than 4% which was the steepest single day drop since August 2011. The rout continued into Asia markets and the spark was growing concerns that inflation will force borrowing costs higher.
The momentum since the start of the year has been bullish with equities pushing higher and the USD selling off. The honeymoon period for equities has now hit a question mark over potential rising borrowing costs. It can be argued that the bull run had ran somewhat ahead of sentiment with overconfidence creeping in. The higher wage inflation from US payroll data on Friday was the beginning of the doubts and this was enough to encourage some profit taking that has now spilled into a wider sell off.
We have not seen a big correction since Brexit and although we could see further selling pressure it should find support soon on the underlying improved global economic optimism and growth.
In the currency markets the reaction was more balanced but we have seen a defined swing into the classic risk off currencies with the Japanese Yen and Greenback gaining ground.
The pound lost ground after a strong start to the year. The pound tends to suffer in a risk off market and the weaker services data yesterday and concerns over the latest Brexit talks have helped it on its way lower. The next focus for the pound will be the Bank of England meeting on Thursday.
Lee Wild, Head of Equity Strategy, interactive investor:
Just as markets cannot keep rising forever, they must also stop falling at some point, but it’s still unclear whether we’ve reached a level where buyers see value again.
Futures prices had indicated a much brighter start for global markets, but early gains were wiped out in Asia and Europe looks vulnerable. Volatility is back, and investors had better get used to it.
While there’s certainly a case to be made against high valuations, especially in the US, there are lots of decent cheap stocks around. Plenty of investors are itching to bet that concerns about inflation and bond yields are overdone and that any increase in either will be much slower than expected. If that’s the case, a 10% correction in the US looks more like a healthy retracement rather than reason to hit the panic button. Long term investors will be amused by it all and are either choosing to ignore the noise or pick up stock at prices not seen for two months in the US and over a year in London.
There are stark similarities between this sell-off and crashes both in August 2015 and in early 2016 when market volatility reached similarly extreme levels. It took several trading sessions played out over weeks to find a bottom, and it’s likely the same will happen here. Only difference this time is that it’s the tune of US economic data, not China’s currency devaluation that markets are dancing to.
Kasim Zafar, Portfolio Manager, EQ Investors:
Pullbacks in markets are (usually) quite normal and healthy, giving moments of pause where everyone pats themselves over, does a quick sense check and then carries on. In the case of the US equity market it hadn’t fallen more than 5% in 404 trading days (back to June 2016). That’s the longest stretch of ‘uninterrupted’ gains in history, with data back to 1928!
There weren’t enough signs of investor heebie-jeebies around, especially not in January when the US index was up over 7% for the month at one point. That’s pretty extreme and entirely unsustainable.
The equity market has finally taken notice that over the last several weeks bond markets have been reflecting a higher inflation and interest rate environment, so it’s not at all surprising to see some adjustment and a return of some much needed investor fear!
We are going through the quarterly reporting season for US companies currently, which is a good test of what’s happening on the ground. With 264 out of 500 US companies having reported so far, most are reporting positive results for both top line revenue growth and bottom line earnings.
So, as things stand, we see this as a long overdue market correction and if it falls much further we would be looking to increase our equity weightings. Increased volatility is a healthy sign of investors becoming more conscious of the risks inherent in markets.
Ray Downer, Trader, Learn to Trade:
Though you may not knowingly own any shares, there is a high chance that you are paying into a pension scheme which invests in shares and bonds. This means the value of your pension pots is dependent on the value of the investments in it and while investment values increase and decrease all the time and this will have very little noticeable difference to your savings, financially turbulent times like this will impact you in some way, particularly if you’re looking to retire this year.
For now, at Learn to Trade we are looking at this in the context of a correction rather than a reversal. Following this week’s FTSE 100 fall, investors should keep a close eye on the stock markets in the months ahead as the value of the pound has gotten weaker with the sell-off. The Bank of England will announce whether or not it plans to raise interest rates because of this ‘bloodbath’ later this week when it publishes its quarterly inflation report. Should the Bank of England announce a rise in inflation rates, British consumers will have less spending power and will start to feel the pinch of higher costs on imported necessities. The inflation report will give us a clearer picture of how this will impact our everyday spending.
Bodhi Ganguli, Lead Economist, Dun & Bradstreet:
It’s a common misconception that stock market activity is linked to the economy. However, an unexpected and ferocious swing in the stock market is disruptive and can wipe out a significant chunk of wealth from the markets – resulting in economic implications. This week’s activity could mean retail investors could see a significant erosion in their nest egg, which would be bad for future consumer spending.
The latest crash was caused by technical or algorithmic trading, most likely computer-generated as at times the stock market was dropping faster than that can be explained by human intervention. These changes were exacerbated by macro-economic triggers such as the recent US jobs report, which was a strong signal of wage inflation returning. This caused market participants to upgrade their inflation outlook with more Feb rate hikes expected. Bond yields also crept up, setting off a bearish shift in the stock market.
We expect the stock market to stabilise in the near future, but the longer term outlook will be determined by how these fundamental macro-economic triggers interact with each other going forward.
Ken Wong, Client Portfolio Manager, Eastspring Investments:
Currently, the market is going through a much-needed correction as valuations were approaching expensive levels for most markets. In particular, China’s equity markets were up 70% over the past 13 months, and this recent 10% correction from its high is actually not that steep.
Despite the recent market correction, investors in Asian equity markets still seem to be in a better position at a time when corporate America seems more hard pressed to deliver elevated profit expectations while also trading at very expensive valuations. Asian equity markets are trading at a P/B ratio of around 1.7x while US equity markets are still trading at 3.2x P/B after this recent price correction.
Asian corporates in general are still expected to deliver strong corporate earnings and most are in good shape as a result of previous cost cutting and balance sheet restructuring that we have seen over the past few years. Despite the recent market volatility, things are still quite sound in this part of the world, Asian corporates are still expecting to see their earnings grow by around 13% in 2018, with China leading the way with earnings growth expectations of over 20% this year.
For investors concerned about the recent market volatility, they should look at investing in a low volatility equity strategy as we have seen these types of strategies outperform the broader benchmark indices by over 2% over the past few days. The benefits of these low volatility equity strategies is the fact that they have bond like risk / volatility characteristics while providing investors with an enhanced dividend yield and market returns which are more in-line with equity returns.
As long as there is still enough cheap liquidity out in the market place, we could start to see some bottom fishing over the coming days as investors start to look for cheap / undervalued stocks. In particular, investors could look toward those sectors that underperformed in 2017, such as financials, energy and consumer staples.
Richard Perry, Market Analyst, Hantec Markets:
Equity markets remain highly attuned to the threat of the increase in volatility across financial markets at the moment. Equities are considered to be a relatively higher risk asset class, so with a huge sell-off on bond markets, equity markets have also come under threat. The concern comes in the wake of the jump in US earnings growth to 2.9%, a level not seen since 2009. A leap in earnings growth has investors spooked that this will lead to a jump in inflation which could force the Federal Reserve to accelerate its tightening cycle. Markets can cope with gradual inflation but inflation running out of control can lead to significant volatility, such as what we have seen recently. The high and stretched valuation of equities markets meant that was the prime excuse to take profits.
For months, analysts have been talking about the potential for a 10% correction and at its recent nadir, the S&P 500 had corrected 9.7%. So is this just another chance to buy, or the beginning of a bigger correction? The key will be the next series of inflation numbers, with CPI on the 14th February and core PCE at the end of the month. If inflation starts to increase appreciably, longer dated bond yields could take another sharp leg higher, perhaps with the 10 year breaking through 3.0%. Subsequently, equities would come under sustained selling pressure with volatility spiking higher once more. However, if there can be a degree of stabilisation in the bond markets, then equity investors can begin to look past immediate inflation fears and then focus back on the positives of economic growth in the US, Eurozone and China.
Alistair Ryan, Senior Dealer, Frontierpay:
This afternoon’s hawkish approach from the Bank of England came as a surprise; I personally – along with many others – didn’t expect there to be any talk of a rate rise in the UK until at least the end of 2018. The services sector, which makes up around 80% of UK GDP, faltered this month and wage growth is slowly increasing but remains low at 2.4%. Both of these factors suggest a slack economy, so I expect we will see many questioning whether this is the right time for a rate rise.
If we were to see some further improvement in the economy over the coming months, then a rate rise would of course be a possibility, but whilst wage growth and inflation slowly start to correlate, I don’t think we will see any movement on the base rate.
We would also love to hear more of Your Thoughts on this, so feel free to comment below and tell us what you think!
This new year, there is one question on the lips of business men and women around the UK: “Is now the best time to purchase commercial property?” Thus, commercial property experts, Savoystewart.co.uk, have analysed how the market faired in 2017, and whether 2018 is the ‘peak time’ to buy.
The latest Property Data Report shows that since 2000, the value of the UK’s commercial property stock has grown, considerably, at an average of 3% each year – surprisingly, more than RPI inflation, which grows at an average rate of 2.8%.
Whilst exploring the report, Savoy Stewart found that the commercial property market in the UK in 2016 was valued at a staggering £883 billion, representing 10% of the UK’s net wealth. Investors now own £486 billion worth of commercial property in the UK; with overseas investors owning 29%.
In central London alone, around £2.4 billion was invested in commercial property, resulting in the total turnover for the end of July reaching a substantial £11.5 billion – a 24% increase on the same point a year earlier, in 2016.
July was the strongest month recorded for the City of London since March 2007, owing to the sale of the “Walkie Talkie” building – the UK’s largest single office building deal – which accounted for a staggering 61% of turnover.
Is now the best time to purchase commercial property?
2017 was a much stronger year than many ever anticipated. The economy pleasantly surprised many businesses and forecasters, with unemployment falling to the lowest level since 1975, consumer spending robust, and occupier take-up healthy.
According to Knight Frank, London office take-up is on the rise, despite the impact of Brexit, with demand in the West End at its highest for more than a decade. Savoy Stewart concluded, from their analysis of the research, that the third quarter of 2017 recorded the highest level of office take-up.
A substantial 3.8 million square feet of office space in central London was under offer and was due to close by the end of the year – and it is predicted to be the strongest final quarter since 2014. Office take-up in the West End alone reached 1.65 million square feet.
Trends in 2018
The uncertainty over the UK’s relationship with the EU will continue to cast a shadow over economic growth throughout 2018, resulting in a more cautious outlook amongst investors across all commercial property sectors. As a result, activity may be subdued, but it doesn’t
mean investment will stop any time soon, as investment volumes in the UK commercial property market, this year, are expected to total around £55 billion, per a report by JLL.
Savoy Stewart considered Savills ‘Sector Outlook’ and summarised the six main trends for commercial property in 2018:
Managing Director of Savoystewart.co.uk, Darren Best, discusses his view on commercial property investment in 2018: “As the figures show, despite the uncertainty around Brexit, London is still a pre-eminent city and performing better than Europe in some sectors. The research suggests that now is the best time to purchase commercial property in the UK, now that business confidence is more stable than many expected, which speaks volumes.”
He added: “The performance of the market, last year, surprised many of us. Occupiers are continuing to commit to London commercial property to satisfy their needs, and with the increase in foreign investment in UK commercial property over the last decade and overseas investors now owning 29% of UK commercial properties, it is safe to say 2018 isn’t going to be all doom and gloom – there will be scope for optimism too.”
CNBC's Scott Wapner recaps his conversation with legendary investor Carl Icahn on the market volatility and where he sees the market going from here.
2018 is the year you make more money. It’s one of your New Year’s resolutions – but you’ve got no idea where to start. You’ve done the research, read as much as you can, and are suffering from a serious case of paralysis by analysis. With so many options to choose from, it’s understandable that doing nothing at all seems like the easiest option. It’s also the worst. Below Jitan Solanki, Senior Trader at Learn to Trade, sheds light on your options for the year ahead.
So, where exactly should you invest your money this year? Read on to find out more about the pros and cons of different investments and make 2018 the year your money works harder.
ISAs
The beauty of cash ISAs is that you do not pay tax on the interest you earn. However, today, basic rate taxpayers can earn £1,000 in savings interest a year, and higher taxpayers can earn £500 – so ISAs are no longer quite as attractive.
Indeed, a standard ISA only offers one – two% interest per year. Even a stocks and shares ISA that can offer 13-14% per year typically incurs a 6p to every £1 charge. This eats away at margins and, when you factor in inflation – at its highest level for half a decade – not only is money not growing, it’s actually decreasing in value.
Cryptocurrency
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you will have seen the hype surrounding cryptocurrency, the decentralised virtual form of money that can be used to make purchases or be exchanged for other traditional and digital currencies. VeChain (VEN) is one of the hottest new cryptocurrencies around, having struck major deals with Renault, PwC and Fanghuwang, one of the fastest growing online lending platforms in China. Another that you may have heard of, Ripple, is also one to watch as it announced partnerships with American Express and Santander. When considering an investment in cryptocurrencies, the focus now has to be on identifying which coins offer the best technology and are most likely to be used by everyday people in the future – that will be where the value is.
Now that the hype around bitcoin has somewhat subsided, there are good opportunities for those with longer-term ambitions. However, cryptocurrencies are a highly speculative investment without government regulation so investors are warned to tread carefully. It remains to be seen how the crypto craze will play out, but whatever happens, ensure you research thoroughly before making any investments.
Stocks and Bonds
If you’re happy to tie up your money for a number of years, some of your investment options include: bonds, investing money into managed funds, and directly trading stocks, shares and commodities. A fixed rate bond with NS&I might be worth considering, if you’re willing to put away savings for three years, as it guarantees a 2.2% a year growth bond with no risk but is unfortunately taxable. Premium bonds, while not guaranteed, do offer savers the chance to win tax-free prizes between £25 and £1m.
In terms of stock, investment returns and risks for both types – common and preferred – vary depending on factors such as the economy, political scene and the company’s performance. In the short-term, this form of investment is volatile and choosing stocks requires substantial research. There are also a lot of hidden fees and a lack of transparency involved when buying and selling stocks. This said, we’d call out the Hang Seng 50 index as one market that remains a strong core focus for us. This has been on a radar for over a year now when new Shanghai Stock Exchange to Hong Kong Stock Exchange link launched. We continue to see outflows from mainland China into Hong Kong and continue to trade the trend.
Forex Trading
As it stands, by far the most lucrative choice – and one that manages the risk – is forex trading (the trading of currencies), turning over $5.3 trillion annually. Return on investment is typically four% per month on average, which equates to roughly a 60% increase on starting balance after one year.
The British Pound, which has benefitted greatly from open talks between UK and European ministers surrounding Brexit, and the Japanese Yen – weak due to changes in the Bank of Japan’s personnel and upcoming elections – are, currently, a highly effective pairing.
Though it’s hard to argue with the returns above, there is always risk involved. However, while trading does demand a disciplined mindset, as long as you stick to some simple rules you can largely mitigate risk and start to see consistent returns.
The best thing you can do this year is spend some time getting familiar with each of your investment options, understand the pros and cons of forex trading, ISAs, stocks and bonds, and new kid on the block, cryptocurrency, and make 2018 the year you see a return on your investment.
The euphoric rally of US stock markets is sustainable through 2018, forecasts a leading global analyst at deVere Group.
Tom Elliot, deVere Group’s International Investment Strategist, is speaking after America’s leading market indices - the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq - finished at a record high following the end of the government shutdown.
Mr Elliott comments: “There’s been almost continual chatter in recent weeks on Wall Street and beyond about the current melt-up, before a forthcoming meltdown. It supposes that we’re experiencing the last euphoric rally in an asset class bull market, before the collapse.
“Whilst, it’s true that Wall Street is the most overvalued of the major stock markets, I am sceptical about an imminent collapse. Where would it be coming from? The only real risk is that bank account rates or bond yields rise sufficiently to persuade investors to sell shares and invest in risk-free assets.
“But with the inflation so low and the Fed being so cautious, I don’t see that happening any time soon. Another trigger for a sell-off might be a US recession. But again, no evidence of one around the corner.”
He continues: “US stock markets are likely to be supported by continuing strong corporate earnings growth, limiting any pull-back in share prices. The weak dollar boosts export earnings, while strong consumer confidence supports domestic-focused sectors.
“Tax cuts will be a net benefit to US corporate earnings, but the impact of changes to the tax code on individual sectors is as yet unpredictable. Fourth quarter earnings statements and outlook comments being reported shortly will hopefully offer clues.”
Mr Elliott concludes: “Against this backdrop, I believe that the current rally is sustainable through 2018, with the worst scenario perhaps being a strong early part of the year, followed by consolidation -with minimal gains- over the rest of the year.”
(Source: deVere Group)
Investors now have little alternative but to support risk assets if they want to beat inflation, affirms one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations.
The assertion from Tom Elliott, International Investment Strategist at deVere Group, comes as global stock markets enter 2018 with positive momentum, including the Dow Jones which has surpassed 25,000 for the first time in history.
Mr Elliott explains: “Market confidence is supported by a reasonably strong cyclical upswing in world GDP growth. This is being translated into corporate earnings growth, by a belief that central banks will not significantly tighten monetary policy unless justified by growth and inflation data, and by the U.S. corporate tax cuts announced in December which will boost Wall Street corporate earnings.
“In the face of continuing low interest rates and bond yields, investors now have little alternative but to support risk assets such as equities and non-core government bonds, if they want a yield that will beat inflation.”
An acronym is currently being popularised that describes how many investors see markets unfolding in 2018: MOTS, standing for ‘more of the same’. That is to say, solid returns for stock markets with continuing low volatility, and positive returns from investment grade corporate bonds.
“The risks to the MOTS scenario include central bank policy error, Trump turning America away from its traditional support for free trade, a credit crunch in the Chinese financial system and from geopolitics such as North Korea and the Middle East. However, as supporters of MOTS would argue, none of these risks are particularly new and they failed to de-rail markets in 2017,” confirms the strategist.
He continues: “We favour a long-term multi-asset approach to investing, whereby investors choose a suitable combination of global equities and bonds - depending on their risk profile and investment horizon - and leave the portfolio unchanged. Regular re-balancing ensures winners are sold and losers are bought – which financial history, and common sense, supports but which is so hard for us to do in practice.”
Mr Elliott goes on to say: “Looking forward to 2018, Japanese and emerging market stock markets appear to some commentators to offer most value, the U.S. less so. The Japanese economy, which grew at an annualised rate of 1.4% in the third quarter 2017 (despite a shrinking population), continues to benefit from a weak yen and the upturn in global demand for its exports. Fiscal reform, in particular lower corporate tax rates for companies that increase wages by 3% or more, comes into effect in April. It is hoped that this will lead to improvements in household demand growth, which has been weak in recent years. Emerging market equities continue to look undervalued relative to their developed market peers on most valuation measures, despite their outperformance in 2017.
“Wall Street is the most overvalued of the major stock markets, with the attractiveness of equities against bonds diminishing as Treasury yields creep up. However, the increase in yields is likely to be modest and U.S. corporate earnings growth will remain strong, limiting any pull-back in share prices. The weak dollar boosts export earnings, while strong consumer confidence supports domestic-focused sectors. Tax cuts will be a net benefit to U.S. corporate earnings, but the impact of changes to the tax code on individual sectors is as yet unpredictable. Fourth quarter earnings statements and outlook comments, from mid-January, will hopefully offer clues.”
Mr Elliott is not so confident about fixed income. He concludes: “Once again we begin the year with commentators generally nervous of bonds, fearing that an inflation problem is around the corner. Some fear that central banks will tighten monetary policy faster than is priced into the market in an accelerated effort to ‘normalise’ policy.
“It seems prudent to heed such warnings, even while acknowledging that the fear of imminent inflation has been voiced by monetarist hawks – and proved wrong- ever since central bank’s policies of quantitative easing and ultra-low interest rates began nearly 10 years ago. This suggests favouring short duration core government bonds, since the cash can be re-invested in a few years in higher bond yields.”
(Source: deVere Group)
The warning from Nigel Green, founder and CEO of deVere Group, follows the president of the Catalan government, Carles Puigdemont's, highly anticipated speech in which he said Catalans had “won their right to become an independent country” from Spain following the disputed referendum on 1st October. The Premier added that he will first seek to open a dialogue with Madrid.
Mr Green affirms: “The aftermath of geopolitical events of this magnitude have the potential to influence capital markets which, of course, drive investor returns.
“Up until now the chaos in Catalonia had been largely dismissed by global investors as a regional issue. However, now that Mr Puigdemont is effectively saying that Catalonia will become independent come what may, a considerably heightened game of cat and mouse between Barcelona and Madrid has been started – and this could have far-reaching economic consequences in the short and longer term.
“In the short term there will be ongoing and increasing uncertainty which is likely to create turbulence in the domestic and regional financial markets. In the longer term, if Catalonia splits, Spain’s economy – Europe’s fourth largest – could lose 20 per cent of its revenue. Plus the process could adversely affect investment into both Spain and Catalonia.”
He continues: “The Catalonia independence crisis could push Spain’s recent economic progress back. This would inevitably weaken the wider eurozone’s economic stability by pushing the bloc into another era of grinding uncertainty.
“This is perhaps especially concerning as we have recently had the German election, with Merkel returning but with a lower majority, and now we have the Austrian election, and the Italian one next year. And this is all against a backdrop of British PM, Theresa May, being urged to walk away from Brexit negotiations in Brussels if they fail to make progress this month.”
The deVere CEO says: “The chaos in Catalonia is a wake-up call for global investors to ensure that they are properly diversified across asset classes, sectors and regions, in order to mitigate the risks of the fall out of this and other key geopolitical events and also – crucially - to take advantage of significant opportunities that they simultaneously present.”
(Source: deVere Group)
Immediate market reaction to the illegal separatist referendum in Catalonia is likely to be muted – but what happens on the aftermath will be crucial, affirms the boss of one of the world’s largest independent financial services organisations.
Nigel Green, the founder and CEO of deVere Group, comments as Spanish police in riot gear moved in to prevent the ballot called by Catalonia’s regional government, but which Spain’s Constitutional Court banned from taking place.
Mr Green observes: “What is striking is how this chaos in Catalonia has been largely ignored to date by global investors, who last week appeared more preoccupied with Trump's proposed tax cuts and Angela Merkel's reduced political strength in the Reichstag.
“When global markets open Monday immediate reaction is likely to be muted too. The Spanish stock market is relatively small. The country represents just 5 per cent of the MSCI Europe index, compared to 28 per cent for the UK, 15 per cent for France and 14 per cent for Germany.
“Whilst it is a huge existential crisis for Spain and is a big geopolitical event, regional tensions such as these, rarely have the necessary might to considerably affect global trading. International commerce is stronger than all the sabre-rattling.
“It is unlikely that there will be immediate major portfolio rebalancing as a direct response to the events in Catalonia.”
He continues: “However, what happens next will be crucial for global investors. Neither Barcelona nor Madrid will back down on this issue. And now the genie of illegality is out of the bottle, there is little incentive for those supporting independence to put it back. Particularly if they can claim a majority of voters back their cause.
“Should the Catalans take further illegal action after the vote, and perhaps encourage civil disobedience, the uncertainty would create significant volatility and the outlook for the EU region's economy would darken and for Spain also. “The Catalan separatists’ ongoing campaign would also likely trigger a major destabilising effect as it would encourage other areas to vote for independence from the EU. Of course, against this backdrop, we could then expect the Euro would come under considerable pressure.”
Mr Green concludes: “Despite global financial markets largely shrugging off the events in Catalonia so far, it is important that investors keep their eyes on all major political events, including this one as how it plays out in the aftermath will be what matters.
“Investors must remain fully diversified across asset classes, sectors and regions, in order to safeguard and maximise their portfolios and to ensure they remain on track to achieve their long-term financial objectives.”
(Source: deVere Group)
In recent weeks the mainstream media has gone Bitcoin crazy, with articles and segments, raising the profile of cryptocurrencies generally and Bitcoin more specifically in the popular consciousness. This is in part because of recent price rises that briefly took the price to more than US$5,000
per BTC. The question is, is now a good time to buy?
Before embarking on an answer, it is worth outing myself. I have been a Bitcoin investor for almost two years, so I have had the chance to bank some of those 1,000% gains. As you might imagine, I’m a fan.
However, on 1st August, Bitcoin changed in nature and to my amateur investor eyes, it seems that the risk profile has altered dramatically as well.
After more than three years of discussion (read: hostile arguments) online about the way forward for Bitcoin, a change in the code was enacted on 1st August. This is called a hard fork – owing to the fact that the underlying blockchain was split into two. This created a new coin called Bitcoin Cash.
Those arguments, which were quite ugly in places, related to the size of each block in the chain. Being data files, smaller blocks can contain less data than larger blocks. To you and I, that means that less transactions can be processed in smaller blocks. If Bitcoin is to really grow and scale, the argument is that it needs to be capable of handling many more transactions per second than was the case. One side of the debate wanted bigger blocks and more transactions, whilst the other side wanted new software projects that occur “off chain” with the current block size to remain fixed.
The arguments pre-fork were that smaller blocks would make Bitcoin slow and transactions more expensive, while bigger blocks would make the system fast and transactions would be cheap. After a little over one month, the evidence seems to suggest that is likely to be what is actually happening, but it is really too soon to know for sure. Faced with two coins, one that enables transactions within minutes and costs a few cents and another that is many multiples more expensive and takes an unknown amount of time, perhaps more than an hour to complete a transaction, there are many people that believe that most consumers and merchants are likely to opt for low costs and fast processing.
Will Supply And Demand Be Impacted?
These changes come at an important time for Bitcoin’s acceptance. The Japanese government has recently introduced rules to make Bitcoin legal and this year it is being rolled out across bus and railway stations nationwide, plus major shopping chains and into society at large. This, along with many other positive steps suggests that demand is going to continue to head upwards. However, the split of 1st August will have an impact on the supply side of the new Bitcoin Cash.
Anyone with Bitcoin on 1st August was able to “split” their coins and create an exactly equal number of Bitcoin Cash. The new Bitcoin Cash uses the same coin creation and halving schedule as the original Bitcoin, meaning that there is a fixed limit of 21 million coins to be created. In contrast to Bitcoin though, there are likely to be a great many people that were not following the debate closely and will not create their additional coins. Who knows how many this may be in total? The reality though is that when added to the number of the original Bitcoin that has already been lost or burned over the years, total lifetime supply is likely to be much lower than 21 million coins. If Bitcoin Cash catches on, this will likely be a future driver of price.
Opinions on the fork differ widely. Finance Monthly spoke to Ofir Beigel, founder of the popular website 99Bitcoins.com. When asked how he viewed the split he told us, “I consider Bcash to be just another altcoin - I'm saying this mainly from a market perspective. The market has spoken in the sense that Bitcoin's adoption and usage weren't hindered by the fork and the emergence of Bcash. Personally I think the results of this fork were a huge vote of confidence for Bitcoin, its maturity and stability.”
How Decentralised Is Bitcoin, Really?
One fear for Bitcoin is that it is not as decentralised as people might think. Yes, there are miners and nodes (processing the blocks) around the world. Yes, coins are owned by funds, companies, investors and traders. Yes, businesses globally are now accepting payments. And on and on. However, because of the nature of its formation, much like modern society, there is a disproportionate amount of power in the hands of a small number of guys (Bitcoin’s early adopters were overwhelmingly male). They came to be known as Bitcoin Barons.
Most of those early adopters bought - and still own – large numbers of coins. This has made them very, very wealthy. Some have used parts of that wealth to launch their own crypto start-ups, invest in other start-ups and coins, launch their own currencies and generally be very involved in the growth of cryptocurrency. This means that this relatively small group of developers and technologists are typically involved in more than one part of the ecosystem and many of them know each other. In other words, they have influence.
How Annoyed is Everyone, Really?
The arguments of the last few years have been very personal and many people have taken offence. Whilst they were all stuck in the same boat supporting one Bitcoin, the arguments could rage, insults be hurled and the show went on. Now that there is a second coin, that is no longer guaranteed.
Ultimately, both Bitcoins are incredibly similar, which means that if a person or business was capable enough to develop something useful for one, it can be applied to the other very easily. In some cases, such as mining, automatic scripts enable switching between the two at a moment’s notice.
Will Both Survive?
This is the crux of the problem. Do all those heavily invested technologists need to support the original Bitcoin when they now have their own Bitcoin Cash to support and grow? The answer is clearly no and the situation is not helped by the previous and ongoing animosity.
Earlier in 2017 consensus formed the New York Agreement when most of the major players agreed to provide support until November, but there is no guarantee that this will be upheld. For all their confidence over the last three years, the developers arguing for small blocks seem to be quite vulnerable. Either or both of heavy selling by the early investors – who we might think of as whales – or removal of services by businesses within the ecosystem could cause major dislocations in the market.
It is not easy to image Bitcoin in a death spiral, it is very likely to survive long into the future. The risk is that the chain does become slow and clogged, transaction times and fees do increase and it becomes less and less usable, with the faster, cheaper and directly comparable Bitcoin Cash available in the market. If that happens and the technologists remove support or sell their coins, the old chain and those amazing prices could be in grave danger.
It is clearly in nobody’s best interests to crash Bitcoin. That would set the cryptocurrency space back several years. Removing support, selling holdings over time and letting the market decide is a different matter though. For both Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash the next few months will be make or break.
About the author:
Stuart Langridge is originally from the UK and has lived in Malta for 6 years. He has worked as a freelance writer on a wide range of economic and financial topics for many years and now works in marketing for an online gaming company.
After Bitcoin fork, and a huge tech sell-off in July, Snap – the company behind Snapchat - has now joined the circus that is tech giant share prices. In one day in August, Snap Inc. dropped 4%, before bouncing back 6% 24 hours later. What is it about tech shares? Andrew Amy is Investment Manager at Cardiff-based digital wealth management service, Wealthify. Here he talks to Finance Monthly about this modern phenomenon.
One of the initial issues with Snap was, like many other tech companies, it was given a whopping price tag on the stock which, unluckily, was swiftly followed by two bad quarters of results. Despite currently sitting some 46% lower than at its peak in March, the company is still worth approximately $17 billion. That is a hefty price tag for a business that has yet to turn a profit.
Any company with an expensive valuation that fails to beat forecasts for two sets of results is going to struggle, especially as questions loom over the monetization of the business.
It’s not a whole world away from other tech companies. Facebook had a torrid time after its IPO, where its shares pretty much halved in value. Now, its shares are trading more than 300% higher than the IPO price, and its most recent financial updates were impressive. If Snap can replicate the same performance as Facebook, then shareholders may be able to breathe more easily.
So what is causing share volatility within the tech sector? It’s important to remember that, first off, there is volatility in every sector of every stock market, to varying degrees. For example, consumer staples are considered a low volatility sector, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t volatility there.
One way to analyse the tech sector is as two distinct sub-categories – the young guns and the old guard. Apple, Microsoft and Google have been around the block a few times, and so report fairly predictable earnings. They also have a proven track record of fending off competition and remaining at the top of their respective games.
The young guns, such as Netflix, Facebook and Snap, are equally recognisable brands, but are affected far more by volatility as a result of their valuations and competition.
Brand awareness is very powerful, and with some of these guys, especially Facebook, we’re seeing brand become monetised in the form of impressive earnings. However, these stocks don’t come cheap – you’re paying for exponential growth of future earnings.
When expensive stocks don’t deliver the returns that investors expect, the tendency can be to quickly dump them. Perhaps that’s what we’re seeing now, with Snap.
Competition in these fast-moving sectors is hard to predict. Many of the most innovative tech companies have little or zero competition at the outset, so their future earnings remain unchallenged. But, as with every type of business, where there is money to be made, eventually competitors will come.
Look at Netflix – it is currently under pressure from Amazon, but there are more challengers coming. The likes of Disney are set to go live with their own online TV offering, pulling content from Netflix in 2019, and traditional broadcasters are also not resting on their laurels.
Once these markets are more mature, perhaps we’ll see this area of tech become calmer.
While it’s easy to say there’s a tech bubble, it ignores that many stock prices and asset classes are following a similar suit at the moment. Global central banks have kept monetary policy ultra-loose with low interest rates and quantitative easing. This was seen as necessary to keep the economy afloat after the great recession of 07/08. However, when cash is earning you next to nothing, it pushes up the prices of other asset classes, as investors seek out higher returns.
Investment in tech companies such as Uber, AirBnB, or even Wealthify comes because of the innovation we bring to mature markets in terms of scalability, low cost to consumers, and easy access to services via apps and online. Not all startups will survive, but as we’ve experienced from our home in Cardiff, they can thrive, with the right investment and access to expertise and support.
The views above are personal opinions and not intended as financial advice or recommendations.
