Benham and Reeves looked at the historic FTB property price data from the Land Registry and how this had changed month to month across each UK region and London borough, before projecting these monthly price changes forward 34 years to see what the average first-time buyer house price could hit for those born today.
With the average FTB now 34 years of age and today’s average FTB house price in England at £207,526, those born today could be looking at an average of £1,214,381 to get on the ladder in 34 years’ time.
This is, of course, much higher in the capital and despite the current market slowdown, the average FTB house price in London is now £412,679, although this could increase to a huge £4.5m over the next 34 years.
The data shows the average FTB house price would also top the £1m mark in the East of England and the South East, where the average house prices are currently £241,259 and £259,567 but could hit £1.9m by 2052.
The cheapest area to buy for FTBs born today would be the North East with a predicted price of £210,739, up from £110,645 today.
Looking into London, Kensington could be toppled as the capital’s most expensive borough, from an FTB perspective anyway. Despite the much higher price of property today, the slower rate of growth in FTB property prices in the last seven years means that Waltham Forest could overtake the PCL borough with an eye-watering average house price of £11.5m by 2052.
Kensington would still rank second with an average FTB house price of just under £8.4m, with Hackney (£6.8m), Westminster (£6.8m) and Haringey (£6.6m) all home to some of the highest prices when getting on the future ladder.
Hounslow has seen the slowest rate of growth in FTB house prices historically and ranks as the most affordable for an FTB born today, but even then they would need a whopping £2.8m to get on the ladder in 34 years’ time.
Benham and Reeves Director, Marc von Grundherr, commented: “This research considers the ups and downs of the first-time buyer market historically and how things could play out for the generation of first-time buyers being born today if these trends were to repeat themselves.
Of course, it’s impossible to predict the future of the UK property market, particularly given the current turbulence caused by wider economic and political factors, however, this research acts as a warning of what could happen if we continue to fail in the delivery of affordable starter homes.
Not only does it show the huge jump in prices over previous years but how this could worsen further down the line.
While we hope that prices won’t reach these dizzying heights, we’ve certainly seen stranger things happen across the UK property market in the last 34 years, so who knows what the next 34 may bring.”
| Region | Average FTB House Price | ||
| Jan-12 | Dec-18 | Dec-52 | |
| London | £256,169 | £412,679 | £4,562,327 |
| East of England | £159,417 | £241,259 | £1,909,148 |
| South East | £173,993 | £259,567 | £1,907,352 |
| South West | £155,722 | £210,977 | £945,789 |
| East Midlands | £114,714 | £162,200 | £898,665 |
| West Midlands | £120,179 | £166,881 | £826,933 |
| Yorkshire and the Humber | £108,443 | £141,520 | £519,388 |
| North West | £105,748 | £138,288 | £514,293 |
| Wales | £109,838 | £139,487 | £443,639 |
| Scotland | £101,906 | £121,331 | £290,006 |
| North East | £97,313 | £110,645 | £210,739 |
| England | £145,361 | £207,526 | £1,214,381 |
| Borough | Average FTB House Price | ||
| Jan-12 | Dec-18 | Dec-52 | |
| Waltham Forest | £214,718 | £419,083 | £11,565,911 |
| Kensington and Chelsea | £810,493 | £1,207,159 | £8,378,019 |
| Hackney | £311,042 | £523,280 | £6,825,031 |
| Westminster | £603,575 | £895,636 | £6,819,146 |
| Haringey | £284,508 | £478,903 | £6,627,641 |
| Merton | £264,034 | £447,387 | £6,086,550 |
| Lewisham | £208,529 | £366,680 | £6,069,420 |
| Barking and Dagenham | £157,097 | £287,108 | £5,620,292 |
| City of London | £555,616 | £809,007 | £5,465,194 |
| Redbridge | £215,044 | £370,373 | £5,428,181 |
| Bexley | £175,586 | £310,631 | £5,264,108 |
| Lambeth | £278,869 | £453,022 | £5,251,664 |
| Greenwich | £210,418 | £352,939 | £4,677,804 |
| Camden | £488,702 | £706,879 | £4,575,705 |
| Enfield | £213,313 | £352,056 | £4,308,058 |
| Havering | £186,160 | £312,903 | £4,251,056 |
| Richmond | £348,635 | £528,510 | £4,247,587 |
| Hammersmith and Fulham | £437,937 | £641,542 | £4,245,412 |
| Southwark | £284,136 | £446,372 | £4,233,466 |
| Hillingdon | £208,684 | £341,413 | £4,030,421 |
| Bromley | £216,935 | £353,448 | £4,005,025 |
| Croydon | £182,269 | £302,758 | £3,987,306 |
| Newham | £211,778 | £342,734 | £3,919,806 |
| Sutton | £194,578 | £320,221 | £3,899,370 |
| Ealing | £273,773 | £426,620 | £3,860,887 |
| Kingston | £265,393 | £409,397 | £3,682,426 |
| Barnet | £294,548 | £446,786 | £3,585,976 |
| Tower Hamlets | £275,938 | £415,189 | £3,484,293 |
| Islington | £413,846 | £582,156 | £3,409,486 |
| Harrow | £251,169 | £386,293 | £3,350,252 |
| Wandsworth | £359,897 | £521,095 | £3,318,529 |
| Brent | £274,150 | £406,390 | £2,960,547 |
| Hounslow | £232,753 | £353,076 | £2,847,158 |
| London | £256,169 | £412,679 | £4,562,327 |
(Source: Benham and Reeves)
Of course, there's the deposit, mortgage payments and estate agents fees to think about, but what about finding out the boiler is broken once you move in? Or realising you need to pay just shy of £1,000 for a homebuyer's report? Once you add moving day costs, like hiring a van and buying sturdy cardboard boxes, it really does all add up.
So, before you get carried away putting in an offer on a home that could leave you out of pocket, here are five hidden costs first-time buyers should be aware of. And, if you want to find out exactly how much your new home could cost you, use Totally Money's new interactive home buying tool.
Stamp duty isn’t a problem for everyone – homes under £125,000 won’t incur it, and prices up to £500,000 for first-time buyers will be reduced or negated. But if you’re buying a more expensive home, or not your first, it can cost tens of thousands of pounds.
Small faults with a property are easy to overlook when you’re buying it. But once you’re in, it’s natural to want to get the place just right – but with average costs of £180 for fixing leaks and cracks, and as much as £2,750 for rewiring electrics, it can be a real shock.
Even if you don’t want a full building survey, a homebuyer’s report can identify a lot of potential issues with a property – but it’ll still put you out a massive £786 on average.
When buying your home with the help of a solicitor, their costs can be between £850 - £1,500, which is a sizeable fee to pay as you enter your new property.
Boxes, a removals company to help you pack up and shift your stuff, taking a day off work unpaid to wait for the broadband to be installed, moving day costs can often the most hidden of all. Plan ahead by asking family and friends to help you move, or buying boxes in bulk, and you could save yourself a small fortune.
Joe Gardiner, TotallyMoney’s Head of Brand and Communications, comments: “Buying your first home is an exciting step in your life, but it’s also an expensive one – and often more expensive than you initially estimate. We conducted this research to help first-time buyers make sure they are aware of all potential costs before they have to pay them.”
(Source: TotallyMoney)
