CNBC's Scott Wapner recaps his conversation with legendary investor Carl Icahn on the market volatility and where he sees the market going from here.
From the current situation in the US to oil and gambling stocks, Rebecca O’Keeffe, Head of Investment at interactive investor, shares some thoughts on this week’s news.
The huge importance of politics to equity markets might have led one to conclude that the US shutdown would be a negative factor for markets, but the bullet-proof nature of current markets, combined with limited economic impact on stocks that a shutdown delivers, has seen global markets shrug off any major concerns. The last US government shutdown in 2013 lasted sixteen days, during which the S&P 500 rallied 3.1% and the two prior shutdowns to that in 1996 and 1995 also resulted in gains for equity markets, so there is certainly precedent for investors to ignore these events. It is only if a protracted shutdown starts to impact consumer confidence and spending that investors are likely to sit up and take notice.
Gambling stocks have tumbled in early trade, after the weekend press suggested that the current government consultation might cut the fixed odds betting limit to just £2. Gambling companies have made hundreds of millions of pounds a year from fixed odds betting terminals and were hoping that the minimum stake would be towards the middle of the £2 and £50 consultation range. Although the consultation does not end until tomorrow, the suggestion that the response to the survey has been overwhelmingly in support of a cut to the minimum £2 means that this is indeed a significant threat to bookmakers.
In Germany, it looks like the stalemate that has afflicted German politics since September may finally be reaching a resolution, after the SPD voted to engage in coalition talks with Angela Merkel and her party. This vote will hopefully ensure that a repeat election can be avoided and should allow Chancellor Merkel to retain her place as a key lynchpin of the European Union and a major player in any Brexit talks.
Oil prices are on the rise this morning, as Opec and Russia have signalled their intent to co-operate on supply beyond the current deal terms. However, OPEC and Russia are just one half of the supply story, as producers in the US, Canada and Brazil are all expected to ramp up output in response to higher oil prices. With these new dynamics in the oil market, the possibility of higher supply is a major downside risk for the oil price.
MiFID II came into force at the start of the month/year, but many businesses are still not compliant. Luckily for them, there’s a six month grace period before they’re actually in trouble. With that in mind, here’s 5 top tips for compliance from Joanne Smith, Group CEO of TCC and Recordsure.
MiFID II, hailed as the key to overhauling the financial markets and implementing the lessons learned following the financial crisis, is finally here. The legislation is designed to drive significant changes around transparency, investor protection and effective governance. It also aims to harmonise the various regulatory regimes that exist across the European Union.
With such broad and wide-reaching goals, the legislation, and the changes firms are required to implement in response, are significant and shouldn’t be underestimated. Yes, MiFID II is already in play, but with so much uncertainty in the build-up to implementation, firms may be less prepared than they might have hoped, or uncertain of how to ensure ongoing compliance.
Here are five top tips to help firms set themselves up for ongoing MiFID II compliance and strengthen their business for ongoing commercial success.
There’s no doubt that culture is one of the most important components of effective governance frameworks. Firms that are focussed on treating customers fairly and delivering the right outcomes are more likely to have greater commercial success and a more positive relationship with the regulator than one with a poor culture, or one which isn’t sufficiently embedded throughout all levels of the organisation. Recent FCA thematic output has identified how firms with objective self-challenge built into their processes are able to more effectively demonstrate that good customer outcomes are central to their business.
Firms should have gained a thorough understanding of their culture prior to making any changes to their business in response to MiFID II. However, culture isn’t static, it evolves over time and so firms will need to continually measure and evidence their culture and the impact it has on consumer outcomes. When assessing this, firms should keep MiFID II’s core aims of transparency and investor protection in mind and assess the extent to which internal practices are aligned.
Now that MiFID II is here, firms should keep the requirements front of mind when considering any strategic business changes, as the requirements do impact, whether directly or indirectly, on a significant number of business areas.
In the near future, the industry is likely to see changes in the distribution landscape, with firms exploring direct to client offerings and increased use of digital services to serve clients and offset the increased costs the legislation will bring.
The reporting requirements of MiFID II gives firms and regulators greater insight into the market, enabling them to monitor and identify emerging threats and potential instances of market abuse. Given the FCA’s more proactive regulatory approach in recent years, firms should expect to see the regulator pay close attention to how firms are utilising the information collected as part of their MiFID II compliance programmes and its own work to increase the effectiveness of its supervisory approach.
Firms should review their reporting systems and data infrastructure regularly to ensure that they are meeting regulatory expectations. Making full use of the insights available can also be used to inform strategy and ensure appropriate outcomes are being achieved.
Many employees are facing large scale changes to the way they perform their duties in the wake of MiFID II. It’s important that firms think beyond any initial training requirements and have plans in place to monitor compliance, reinforce expectations and deliver refresher training when issues or knowledge gaps are identified.
It’s also important that employees have a clear understanding of the standards and rules that apply to them and are held accountable for their conduct, particularly as the FCA turns its attention to rolling out the Senior Managers & Certification Regime (SM&CR) to the wider industry in the coming months.
In the face of such wide-ranging changes, it can be very easy to focus on the changes needed to comply with the regulations and forget to explore the wider benefits those changes could bring to the business and its bottom line.
Take MiFID II’s conversation recording requirements as an example. Having records in a secure and accessible format is key to demonstrating compliance, providing evidence in the event of a complaint and ensuring appropriate oversight of business activity, but the benefits don’t end there.
The data provided by recorded conversations can highlight areas where process efficiencies can be made, provide greater customer insight and can drive staff training and performance management programmes. The management information (MI) from conversation recording can also help firms identify where future risks lie across the business, not just those areas MiFID II impacts.
MiFID II is now in force, but firms shouldn’t relax just yet. In order to maintain compliance and meet regulatory expectations, firms need to be regularly reviewing their arrangements to ensure they continue to meet the appropriate standards and deliver consistent outcomes.
The latest car registration data brings worrying confirmation that the long run of a retail driven economy may be starting to falter. With the performance of the automotive sector so intrinsically dependent upon the nation’s levels of disposable income and access to credit, the recent performance of the sector in the 10 months to October 2017 indicates that car dealerships across the country may face an extremely challenging end to 2017 and start of 2018, according to Duff & Phelps.
“The recent public statements of the larger motor dealers are of profit warnings and of a softening of used car values. Further, the interest rate rise of 0.25% - the first rise since 2007 - will impact on a number of consumer reliant sectors, no more so than an industry fuelled on the availability of credit. Consumers have also had additional spending power as a result of PPI redress, but this will soon be coming to an end. The question therefore is how well prepared are manufacturers and their dealership networks to manage through what appears to be, the start of a potentially significant downturn?” states Michael Bills, Managing Director, Restructuring Advisory, Duff & Phelps.
“Overall, in the 10 months to October 2017, the market is 4.6% down compared with 2016 and 12.2% down on October alone. However, it is somewhat polarised between those manufacturers and dealers enjoying a modest increase in sales this year and those for whom the opposite is true. Certain marques are seeing reductions in sales demand of around 20% year-on-year. And there will be regional differences too that need to be considered,” added Robert Tallentire, Duff & Phelps.
What is certain is that for many in the industry this will be new territory, a new set of trading parameters that they have not experienced for quite some time. With some 169,000 people employed directly in manufacturing and in excess of 814,000 across the wider automotive industry, it accounts for 12.0% of total UK export of goods and invests £4 billion each year in automotive R&D.
More than 30 manufacturers build in excess of 70 models of vehicle in the UK supported by 2,500 component providers and some of the world’s most skilled engineers.
“The question is what resources and abilities can the average independent dealer draw on to confront the challenge. Manufacturer franchising agreements are not that flexible for the independent dealer with the infrastructure and staffing of the business dictated by franchise agreements. Will these rules be relaxed to maintain dealer networks as the UK goes through the seemingly unending and unsettling Brexit process?” continued Robert.
Dealerships are faced with a business structure predicated on a predominance of fixed costs with labour as the main variable. For many the volume driven bonuses from Q3 that they use to provide a cash buffer for the slower winter months ahead were not earned and consequently were not paid at the end of October. Where dealers have traded outside usual parameters in order to reach bonus volumes, they are potentially now sat on what look like over-priced used vehicles stock, that will be challenging to liquidate and turn into cash. Either way, it feels like there could be a prolonged period of working capital challenges before dealers have the opportunity of a good bonus month again.
For lenders to the sector, the change in fortunes in new car sales and the softening of used car values may have crept up unnoticed. Those that extended seasonal facilities in August and September in the anticipation of a strong end to Q3 and subsequent cash receipts may be wondering quite where they go from here especially after the announcement of the October car sales made by the Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders (SMMT).
Michael concluded: “Manufacturers will not want to see long standing dealerships suffering and possibly even disappearing as a result of an economic slowdown. Accurate forecasting, planning ahead and embracing of the rescue principles which Duff & Phelps promotes will be necessary to manage a tricky economic period. Our UK advisory team is uniquely positioned to advise dealerships and their stakeholders in a variety of distressed and special situations. Our team has sector experts, recruited from the industry and with real ‘workshop floor’ dealership experience and we understand the challenges being faced, so we would urge those dealerships facing tougher trading conditions to contact us to steer a route through the winter months.
(Source: Duff & Phelps)
Discussing the latest US tax cuts decision, FTSE updates and bitcoin news, Lee Wild, Head of Equity Strategy at interactive investor, talks to Finance Monthly about the end of year affairs.
With a week to go till Christmas there’s a whiff of Santa rally in the air. Markets should respond well to a ‘yes’ vote on US corporate tax cuts and possible political agreement to avoid a government shutdown on Friday. UK stocks are better value than their US counterparts and, despite the spectre of Brexit horse trading through 2018, there are no obvious banana skins between here and New Year.
In fact, Trump’s tax reform and the failure of progress on Brexit negotiations to revive sterling, will continue to give overseas earners listed here a foreign exchange kick. This, and typically thin trade as investors wind down for Christmas, should allow the FTSE 100 to consolidate gains above 7,500, something it has failed to do thus far. If it does, don’t bet against a new record high by year-end. It’s only one good session away.
An ongoing shutdown of the North Sea Forties pipeline continues to underpin oil prices, with Brent crude looking prepped for a crack at a fresh two-and-a-half-year high.
Whether or not bitcoin traded above $20,000 over the weekend depends on where you get your prices from. According to coinmarketcap.com it peaked Sunday at $20,089.
That bitcoin passed $20,000 for the first time over the weekend is not a surprise. A week ago, with the price at less than $17,000, we said ‘the music may have much longer to play on this one than people think’.
With every new milestone there’s fresh discussion around bitcoin’s legitimacy and potential, both as a trading instrument and revolutionary digital currency. It was the same when it first broke above $10,000 at the end of November. Valuing cryptocurrencies is like sticking your finger in the wind, but traffic is still very much one-way.
Introducing futures contracts in the US was meant to give short-sellers access to the market and improve liquidity, but availability is still fairly restricted. The introduction of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange over the weekend may help, but it will take time.
Until it becomes easier to sell short, buying dries up, or there are tech issues or a major hack, bitcoin will keep passing milestones with alarming regularity. Right now, there’s a long queue of investors, both amateur and professional, still waiting for a ride. This bubble is not bursting yet.
Bitcoin reached another new milestone today as it briefly traded above $17,000 (£14,809) before dropping $2,500 down to $14,500, sparking both fear and interest for investors alike.
This comes after the online currency reached $10,000 just over a week ago.
The Cryptocurrency’s meteoric rise in the tail end of 2017 began earlier this year in March 2017 when a single Bitcoin reached the value of $1200. Since then, it has been gaining traction and breaking record after record.
The 70% surge has largely been aided by demand in China, where people use it to channel money out of the country. It has been further aided by Bitcoin’s introduction to the Chicago-based Cboe Futures exchange and its impending launch on the CME futures market, which will allow investors to bet on the future price of the currency, and give it a form of regulation that has not been present thus far, something that has held back a series of big investors.
Despite this climb, critics fear that Bitcoin’s rise is creating an inevitable economic bubble, similar to the Dotcom rise and subsequent crash that saw the end of many companies and stock reductions of up to 86% in others. Others, however, believe that the rise can simply be attributed to Bitcoin reaching the financial mainstream.
Even with its current rise, Bitcoin is still very much an unknown quantity leaving plenty of room for scepticism. Added in to that is the fact that roughly 1000 people own 40% of the Bitcoin market, which has created an environment where traditional investors have been tentative.
As it stands, people can speculate but no one knows which way Bitcoin is going to go. However, given that buying one Bitcoin last night and selling it 5 minutes later would have made you around $3000, makes it understandable that some are likening the continuing climb of Bitcoin to a “charging train with no brakes”.
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin was introduced back in 2009 by an unknown individual going by the name of Satoshi Nakamoto in the aftermath of the global banking collapse.
Cryptocurrencies are not a form of physical money, rather they’re a digital currency created by computer code and worldwide the total in existence amounts to £112 billion.
There is no middle man involved in transactions either, eliminating any fees that usually occur. Anyone can go online and purchase Bitcoin, whether that’s a single Bitcoin, a number of Bitcoins or even a percentage of a single Bitcoin.
What do you think about this sudden surge? Do you think now is a good time to invest in the cryptocurrency? Or do you feel this is just a passing craze that will soon die down? Leave your answers in the comments below!
Bitcoin has since its inception, and especially during its 2017 growth spurt, become a bit of a culture, a religion almost. If you’ve heard about bitcoin from somehow, they likely sounded really passionate about it and excited to explain it to you. Below Fiona Cincotta, Senior Market Analyst at City Index, talks Finance Monthly through the bitcoin investment craze.
In 2009 when the bitcoin was invented, very few people thought it was worth a second thought. In June of 2009, a bitcoin was worth $0.0001. Even a year ago no one was really taking about bitcoin. It was a virtual currency that existed for those that were technologically advanced enough to understand it.
As humans, the feeling that we have been left behind or the feeling of missing out, is not one we relish. In many cases this is magnified when money is involved. Conversely, the feeling that we have jumped onboard the right ship is something we love to shout about, something that more and more bitcoin investors are doing. As the price of bitcoin continues to rise, the interest that followers pay to the virtual currency and the hype surrounding it grows exponentially. As the price goes up, so does the hype.
Bitcoin reached a staggering new all-time high on 20th November as the virtual currency broke through $8000 level for the first time, not just the first record high, but the third or fourth record high within so many weeks. Several new developments surrounding bitcoin have aided it’s 48% rally from $5500 just one week earlier.
Whilst the link between the rising price and growing following of bitcoin is indisputable, several recent developments have also increased its legitimacy. Firstly, CME Group plans to offer bitcoin futures from December 10th. Futures are a mechanism of agreeing to buy or sell an asset at a future date and the contracts can be used as a method of speculating on the assets price movement over time. CME’s support for the currency is giving it a legitimacy in the financial world that up until now it appeared to be lacking.
The move by the CME will also put more pressure on the big investment banks to join the party. So far, Goldman Sachs has suggested it could be open to the idea of a bitcoin desk, whilst JPMoragan have also expressed an interest in opening a bitcoin desk to serve clients’ needs. But could more legitimacy just encourage bitcoin followers to continue talking up what is starting to look like this generation’s dotcome bubble. Is the bitcoin a great example of investor enthusiasm driving to fever pitch, before it crashes?
Yet, the bitcoin religion is not just about an apparently phenomenal investment. To some of those involved, bitcoin is the future of money. It is not unheard of for bitcoin enthusiasts to compare where the bitcoin is now, to where the internet was in the 1990’s. One bitcoin investor said “bitcoin is one of the most important inventions of humanity. For the first time ever, anyone can send or receive money, with anyone, anywhere on the planet, conveniently and without restriction. It’s the dawn of a better free world.” Another claims that mankind “has never really owned their own money, it’s always been owned by their rulers. Bitcoin gives the ability for people to actually own their own money.” Here we can see that to some the bitcoin religion goes far beyond the investment itself and is the cusp of a social revolution.
Social revolution, new religion, or not, focusing on the bitcoin rather misses the point. More attention should be switched towards the blockchain, the technology behind the bitcoin. Whilst the technology is complicate the idea is simple, Blockchain technology enables us to sends money directly and safely from me to you, without going through a bank, paypal or credit card company. Blockchain technology has the potential to bring with it widespread change. Whilst JP Morgan CEO Dimon, called bitcoin a fraud, his bank has been using underlying blockchain technology to develop new processes. Blockchain technology is still some way off going mainstream, in fact the bitcoin bubble may have even popped before blockchain goes mainstream. Rather than the internet of information, the blockchain (rather than the bitcoin) could be the internet of value.
Below Kathleen Brooks, Research Director at City Index, provides commentary on the latest bitcoin affairs.
Bitcoin is recovering from one almighty correction last week where it dropped from a high of $7,882 to a low of $5,605 in just three days. That is a drop of nearly 30%, which is technically bear market territory. However, this is Bitcoin and due to this it doesn’t react the way other asset classes do. At the start of this week Bitcoin is up $1,000, and has retraced nearly 50% of last week’s decline.
Factors that drove last week’s decline in Bitcoin included:
Looking at the factors that may have driven Bitcoin’s sell off, most appear short term, and indeed, the sharp bounce back on Monday suggests that traders are using any dip as a buying opportunity.
So, where could Bitcoin go next?
This is a tough one to answer as Bitcoin appears to be a runaway train overcoming any obstacle thrown in its path. From a technical perspective, there is nothing to stop Bitcoin hitting $10,000 per USD (see chart 1), as long as we close above $6,500 today. Usually when a price moves through a big psychological level it continues to move higher rather than pausing or reversing course, thus $10,000 could the start of life above 5-figures for Bitcoin bulls. Thus, any future sell offs, and we warn you that they can be severe, could be used as further buying opportunities.
Perhaps the biggest challenge for Bitcoin will come when volatility elsewhere starts to rise. If the Vix was to surge like it did back in late 2015/ early 2016, then traders may lose interest in Bitcoin and pile into other fast-moving asset prices. However, for pure speed and adrenalin, nothing beats bitcoin’s price movements right now. It’s great if you can pick up on the dip and ride the wave higher, but it is not for the faint-hearted.
Source: City Index and Bloomberg
Below Kathleen Brook, Research Director at City Index, talks Finance Monthly through the current markets environment, referencing US stock, bonds, tech, crypto and oil.
As we reach the middle of the week, there are a few signs that stocks could have a harder climb from here. After reaching record highs earlier on Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed the day lower. Advancers vs. decliners were pretty even on the day, with 243 advancers compared with 255 declining stocks, the biggest loser was Tripadvisor, which sunk on the back of growth concerns. The most striking thing about the US stock market today is not the individual movers, but instead the lead indicators and the bond market.
Lead indicators head lower
The two classic lead indicators for US stocks include the Dow Jones Transport Average and the small cap Russell 2000. The Dow Jones Transport index peaked on 13th October and has been falling since then, it fell through its 50-day moving average on Tuesday, which is a bearish sign and could signal further losses ahead. The decline in the Russell 2000 hasn’t been as steep, but it peaked on October 5th and sold off sharply on Tuesday as investors seemed to rush to ditch small cap stocks after yet another record high was reached.
These two lead indicators have not been able to muster enough strength to recoup recent losses, which could be a sign of investor fatigue further down the pipeline. If the selloff in these two indices continues then it is hard to see how the blue chip indices can sustain momentum as we move through November.
The bond market: a health check for stocks
The other warning sign could be coming from the 10-year bond yield. It has fallen more than 15 basis points since peaking towards the end of October. This is in contrast with the 2-year yield, which has been climbing over the same period and is up some 5 basis ponts so far this month. This has pushed the 2-10-year yield curve up to its highest level since 2007, which is typical in a market where the Fed has embarked on a rate hiking cycle, even this mild one that Janet Yellen started in 2015. Rising yields tends to mean woe for stocks, hence investors may now try to book profit instead of instigating fresh long positions as we move to the end of the year.
However, we believe that it is not as simple as rising yields spooking the market. The decline in the 10-year yield could also be relevant for stock investors, especially if it is a sign that the bond market has lowered its expectations for Trump’s tax plan and thus reduced long term growth expectations. If 10-year yields keep falling – and they are testing key support at 2.31% which is the 200-day sma – then it is hard to see how the stock market won’t follow suit and sell off on the back of tax reform stalemate in Congress. Thus, the Trump tax premium could come and bite markets on the proverbial.
Is tech the canary in the coalmine?
Tech is worth watching at this junction after massive gains so far this year. Already bond prices have started to fall for some of the major tech players including Apple, as more supply has weighed on bond yields. Is this a sign that the market could, finally, be falling out of love with tech?
What can the Vix and Bitcoin tell us about markets?
Before predicting market Armageddon, the Vix still remains below 10. Although it doesn’t usually stay low indefinitely, we want to see it move higher before confirming our fears about global risk appetite. Bitcoin is also worth watching. Before anyone can call it a safe haven we need to see how it performs in a sharp market sell off. So far this week it is down nearly $550, so if you are looking for volatility, bitcoin is the place to find it. It is hard to pinpoint the reason for the decline, maybe the market is getting nervous ahead of the upcoming fork later this month? Or maybe the market sees Bitcoin becoming mass market, both the CME and the CBOE are readying themselves for the arrival of Bitcoin futures, as a threat to its price gains? Who knows, but if traditional stock markets sell off, I will be watching to see how Bitcoin reacts and if it has any traits of a safe haven (recent price performance suggests not.)
What next for the oil price?
This week appears to be oil’s chance to steal the limelight. After surging to a high of $64.65 at one point on Tuesday, Brent crude lost $1 by session close as the market re-assessed the geopolitical risks that have propelled the oil price higher, while the fundamental picture remains unchanged. While we acknowledge that the price of oil cannot simply rise on the back of the Saudi anti-corruption crackdown, we still think that there could be some gas in the tank that could send Brent towards $70 – a key technical level - after all, the sharp increase in the price of Brent crude actually began in early October, well before talk of Opec production cut extensions and Saudi corruption purges.
Ahead today, economic data is thin on the ground, so we expect price action to take centre stage. On Thursday Brexit talks resume, this could lend some volatility to GBP, which has been one of the top performers in the G10 FX space so far this week.
As expected, Mark Carney and the Bank of England have risen the UK interest rate for the first time in 10 years, stating that: “The time has come to ease our foot off the accelerator”.
The rate has risen from 0.25% to 0.5%, returning it to the same levels it was prior to a drop following the Brexit referendum result in June 2016, a move designed to stabilise the economy during a tumultuous market in the wake of the landmark vote. The MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) voted by a score of 7-2 in favour of an increase, but has sought to curb any major fears of a quick rise and retain a level of cautiousness by stating in its report that, “All members agree that any future increases in Bank Rate will be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent”.
The rate rise has been expected to happen for some time and is seen by many as a direct response to protect British households from creeping inflation. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, is tasked with keeping inflation at a target mark of 2%, however September saw it rise to 3%, its highest figure since 2012.
The rate increase was also announced in tandem with an upgrade on the growth forecast for this year, which has been raised from 1.3% to 1.5%. The projections for 2018 have also been upgraded, and while this may sound promising for those who championed leaving the EU, the Bank of England has been very clear in asserting its position that Brexit is, and will remain, harmful to the UK economy. The report states that Brexit is causing ‘noticeable impact on the economic outlook’, citing the ‘uncertainties associated with Brexit’ and ‘Brexit-related constraints’, as having a detrimental effect on the financial system.
For the average UK citizen, there are some concerns that the cost of borrowing will now increase and therefore negatively impact those applying for mortgages and loans. The move is also expected to affect homeowners on interest only mortgages who have been enjoying low repayments with the potential to increase monthly payments. With nearly 4 million homeowners currently on variable or base-rate trackers, an increase of up to £12 per month could be seen for those with the average repayment loan of around £90,000 on their mortgages. There is also concern that many people who have never seen a rate-rise in their lives will be caught unexpected, and this could further squeeze a population where falling wages and consumer debt are prevalent.
The British pound fell sharply immediately after the announcement, but many analysts are still seeing this as a ‘one and done’ rise and do not expect to see any further changes emanating from the Bank of England until the terms of Britain’s Brexit is defined.
Vincenzo Dimase (@vincedimase), Head of Market Development, Trading at Thomson Reuters (@mifidii), gives an overview of MiFID II and the many different aspects of the financial market it will affect. Visit http://mifidii.com for more information.
Blockchain will disrupt everything from Silicon Valley to the New York Stock Exchange.