According to recent reports, the UK economy is set to grow at a slower pace than any other major advanced or emerging nation in 2018, according to the OECD.
The OECD says UK growth is forecast at 1.3% in 2018 amid a strengthening global recovery. Earlier figures presented a 1.2% growth; however this is still the weakest of the G20.
Consequently, Finance Monthly has asked several experts, market analysts and economists to comment on the news, in this week’s Your Thoughts.
Angus Dent, CEO, ArchOver:
Despite the Office for National Statistics’ cautious optimism about UK productivity in late 2017, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has refused to upgrade its productivity outlook. It’s just another chapter in a now-familiar story – the Government just can’t jolt the economy out of its lethargy.
If we can’t get out of this rut, we won’t stand much chance of making a smooth economic transition out of the EU next year – we won’t have the leeway to absorb any unexpected shocks. Despite that, Philip Hammond used today’s Spring Statement speech to essentially sit on his laurels and avoid taking any new decisive action.
While the Chancellor rests easy, British business must get to work. Given that the OBR continues to find the government’s position on SME productivity ineffectual, business owners need to take matters into their own hands and look to fund bolder new business projects and models.
They should use alternative financing options to fund new services, hire more staff and improve working conditions. You need money to make money, so UK companies must invest in driving productivity. If the Government won’t do it, entrepreneurs must take the initiative, using tailored financing to secure the tools they need to boost productivity.
Jonathan Watson, Chief Market Analyst, Foreign Currency Direct:
Whilst being rather gloomy in recent forecasts, the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) are right to single out the UK for a slower pace of growth. The uncertainty created by the Brexit has seen reduced confidence in the UK and held back growth.
Business needs certainty and whatever you think the longer-term outcomes may or may not be, for now there is some mystery in what lies ahead from Brexit for the UK. Since we still don’t know what Brexit will ultimately mean, businesses and consumers cannot easily make long-term decisions. That doesn’t mean they have stopped making any decisions, life is carrying on, just at perhaps a slower pace than would have been before the vote, or upon a Remain vote.
The global economy is, as the OECD states performing better than expected, which is helping support the UK through any difficult period. This doesn’t take away the Brexit disadvantage which is currently hampering not only the longer-term overall economic outlook, but overseas investment in the UK, domestic UK business investment and consumer spending, plus that closely watched barometer of economic strength, GDP or economic growth.
Chris McClellan, CEO, RAM Tracking:
What readers of this article need to ask themselves is if they’re a follower or a pioneer? Yes, we understand that it’s being reported that the UK economy is growing at a slower pace, but what will separate those businesses that struggle from those that thrive, is their mind-set and work ethic.
I firmly believe that growth for a lot of businesses can and will soar this year by making smart, well-informed decisions. Assess not only your immediate but future risks and have well-thought out strategies to mitigate these. Consumers are always going to buy whether it be your product/service or another’s. What’s going to make you stand out is clever thinking - how can you add more value? How can you export or trade with countries in a stronger climate? This flexible approach will not only give you competitive advantage but will widen your business horizons further than just UK shores.
The introduction of trusted sites such as TrustPilot, Facebook and Google (to name a few) together with ‘consumer-power’ should not be overlooked. By focusing on exceeding and delighting your customer’s expectations will result in repeat purchases as well as positive reviews, the power of your business growth lays firmly in the hands of your customers.
At RAM Tracking, we’re increasingly analysing our data and utilising innovative technology to delight our customers and highlight improvements that need to be made quickly. Investment into platforms like Salesforce have helped us become more data focused in a bid to work smarter to save costs but still have the ability to reinvest even when growth is reported to slow down.
If you have thoughts on this please feel free to comment below and let us know Your Thoughts.
E-commerce has experienced exponential global growth over the last decade. A wider array of markets has encouraged greater competition and provided more opportunities for online merchants to reap the rewards. However, staying ahead of the competition in such a climate is easier said than done and, if not approached properly, going global can put merchants at risk of falling behind. With this in mind Finance Monthly hears from Ralf Ohlhausen, Business Development Director at PPRO Group, who sets out ten simple steps to help make a success of going global.
Consider the barriers to trade in the regions that interest you, making sure the benefits of doing business in the area outweigh the costs of meeting market needs and expectations. Also, don’t dismiss high-growth markets, such as Vietnam and Poland, which might be relevant for your business, but not the regions that spring to mind when looking for new sales opportunities and cross-border expansion.
This is important not only in terms of what you sell and to who, but also in terms of the most relevant payment preferences. Online casinos do not accept credit card payments due to the fraud potential, while travel websites need to offer customers the option to pay via credit card due to the high value of the transaction. Sale conversions are linked to the provision of appropriate payment methods – and payment behaviour varies by demographic, just as purchasing behaviour does. In many cultures, younger people are more likely to use non-traditional payment methods, but if your target audience is primarily older, this may not be relevant. Do your research by considering all important marketing segments before you begin to trade.
If you are new to a region, you need to raise your profile and gain customer trust to convert browsers into buyers. Consider your target market carefully. For example, a German national buying furniture online would rather not pay for a new sofa in advance, but wait for delivery and then pay directly from their account. Think about the behaviour of your target customer and which marketing strategies will resonate most successfully with them. If this is out of your remit, then working with a local marketing partner will provide the necessary knowledge to attract and retain business in the region, supporting long term growth.
The best marketing plan in the world will fail if not supported by a well thought through market entry strategy. Consider the best way to set-up shop in a new region, as it will differ depending upon your business model and regional knowledge. Do you need to use a partner to begin with, to sell via an online market place, auction site or through an established local vendor? If so, for how long? Or can you go it alone from the start?
Your current market/s may be crowded or dominated by one or two big names. If you enter an emerging market with a carefully tailored and localised offering, you could grab a large slice of that niche before others do.
When it comes to payment options, decide how much risk you are happy with. Some payment methods may be convenient for customers, but carry a greater burden of chargeback/refund risk or other cost to the vendor. Such risk can often be mitigated, for example by offering less riskier forms of payment, such as SEPA direct debits, for goods below a certain value or to trusted customers. So-called ‘push payments’, which are proactively sent by the client, are less risky in terms of chargeback but their use must be balanced with local preferences. Examples of push payments include giropay in Germany and iDEAL in the Netherlands.
Make sure customers are only offered the products and payment methods relevant to their location, in a regionally-appropriate format. There are several ways of doing this, including local versions of websites and identification of site visitors by location (e.g. according to their IP address), which then dictates the pages and payment options available. You should offer each visitor at least three, or ideally around six, of the most popular payment options in their location, to maximise your chances of making a sale.
Online retailers wanting to take a share of emerging markets need to act now, while the trend towards internationalisation is in its infancy and market niches are free.
As a business, you must comply with a multitude of legal, financial and customs regulations of the markets you trade in. It is therefore crucial to keep abreast of and respond to any regulatory changes in a timely fashion. This generally demands external expertise, particularly as the penalties for non-compliance can be extremely tough.
When making a foray into a new market or region, it is important to keep on top of commercial and regulatory barriers and implement the best alternative payment methods. This is fundamental to the success of your business expansion. However, very few retailers have sufficient expertise in-house to manage all of these matters optimally, so finding a partner who can support you on your global journey can be the key to success.
While the prospect of ‘going global’ is still new for some, it’s vital for merchants to break into new regions quickly, armed with the best strategy and proposition to seize the opportunities, before the competition swoops in. Only by taking this approach can merchants win new customers and multiply their bottom line, building new revenue streams and expand into new regions. Global success is only a few steps away, and now is the time to go for it.
Today’s trading days are the middleman’s realm, where platform-based business rule exchanges and trade, removing much control from businesses and investors; but it hasn’t always been like this. Below Finance Monthly benefits from expert analysis from Sascha Ragtschaa, CEO and Co-Founder of Chainium, on the matter of trading control.
Pulling the Trigger
Sourcing information on a global business takes seconds. In fact, the ubiquitous Google now processes over 40,000 search queries every second. This equates to over 3.5 billion searches a day and an almost inconceivable 1.2 trillion searches per year worldwide[1]. However, pulling the trigger to invest in a global business is a whole different ball game.
Expensive, intricate and restricting, buying and selling shares between businesses and investors has significantly fallen behind advancing developments within the wider financial sector. Especially when you compare it to the latest cryptocurrencies, with the famed Bitcoin hitting a high of close to $20,000 in December last year, prior to its recent readjustment.
Disruption of the Status Quo
As one of the most vital areas of the market economy, it is essential the equity market drags itself into the 21st century and puts its businesses and investors in complete control. The simple truth is that when the global equity market was created two hundred years ago with the founding of the London and New York Stock Exchanges, the world was a very different place. Whilst middlemen can help investors identify the most cost-effective option, they can severely lengthen the exchange process and be expensive.
To become relevant for the modern investor, a certain amount of disruption of the status quo is required. The sector needs to ensure that trading becomes a more seamless experience and is put back into the hands of businesses and investors for full control.
Regaining control
The solution for this could well be the blockchain. The technology that underpins the main cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum has the advantage of being transparent enough to ensure democracy and visibility, whilst being secure enough to protect businesses and investors alike. The technology is an enabling force for removing the middle layers, administration and reconciliation steps required in today’s global equity market solutions. This means that businesses and investors can be connected directly, leading to a rise in empowerment and the eliminating the need for middlemen.
To become truly transformative in 2018, any new equity market solution needs to be built with business and investor control at its core. The recent string of high profile data breaches – coupled with the impending Global Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) which comes into force on 25th May – have heightened the awareness among consumers regarding information security; especially when payments of any kind are involved. Blockchain can not only protect the individual, but also allow for enough transparency to ensure equity decisions, voting and resolutions are fully transparent in the process.
Removing the shackles
In order to be fully accessible, a modern equity network must be well tailored to suit the needs and interests of both investors and business owners. By democratising equity, it can bring influence and power back to the individual investor through de-centralisation, blockchain technology and crypto payments. Meaning the network becomes entirely distanced from traditional stock exchanges, government regulation and the institutional and corporate stranglehold.
Back to basics
This back-to-basics approach to raising capital reduces bureaucracy; with blockchain technology removing duplication and eliminating errors. This allow investors and businesses to exchange digital share certificates for fiat or cryptocurrency in a transparent, tamper proof and immutable distributed ledger. No intermediary or other reconciliation steps are involved in transactions, cutting through hundreds of legacy systems and solutions from the old world.
Business owners, of private and public businesses, can now sell shares directly to investors. Cutting out the middlemen in issuing and trading shares helps to give complete control back to the businesses and investors alike and help them become indelibly linked.
A transformation is needed
Giving trading control back in the hands of the companies and investors utilising the equity market is essential when it comes to promoting innovation and reinventing the processes involved in trading shares. No more trading through banks, brokers and intermediaries. No more share registrars, transfer agents or middlemen.
We have seen AirBNB, Ethereum and Uber all become the pinnacle of digital transformation in their very own industries and with the help of new technologies, we are now seeing the same beginning to happen in the global equity market too. By removing the multiple barriers to investment means that the next Apple, Google or Microsoft won’t be left on the scrapheap, but receive the investments they need to thrive.
As the container shipping industry continues to boom, companies are adopting new technologies to move cargo faster and shifting to crewless ships. But it’s not all been smooth sailing and the future will see fewer players stay above water.
Following a weekend at the Oscars, a frozen UK and a tax based feud between Europe and the US, Finance Monthly hears from Rebecca O’Keeffe, Head of Investment at interactive investor on the latest global markets news.
Global equity markets are fragile, and investors are wary as the increasing rhetoric over the weekend on tariffs and a potential escalation of a full-blown trade war make it possible that things could get very ugly very quickly. History has not been kind to investors during periods of protectionism and recent tweets suggest that President Trump is leaning in rather than stepping back from threats to unleash a global trade war.
This all makes it very difficult for investors to know what to do. Any global company could instantly and significantly suffer if its principal products suddenly become subject to retaliatory trade restrictions. Downside risks are therefore widespread and elevated, and it will be tricky to find sectors or companies that offer a genuine safe haven against such risks.
The major headache that the EU faces on trade is not the only issue facing European investors this morning as Italy looks to have taken a step to the right and moved towards populism and change. The complexity of the Italian voting system makes it very difficult to establish what happens next and when, but neither of the anti-establishment Five star movement or League parties are an attractive option for markets or the euro. Against this negative backdrop, investors can only be grateful that German coalition talks finally reached a conclusion, with Angela Merkel managing to hold on to her position as long-serving Chancellor, albeit in a fragile alliance.
Trading is often seen as a career path only for those with a deep understanding of the market. But the truth is we all trade. The concept of value and purchasing power is something we learn at a young age and most people haven’t yet learned that the forex market is everywhere. Here Finance Monthly hears from Benjamin Sparham, Trader at Learn to Trade, who has expert insight into the world of trading.
The richest people in the world are constantly in the know about the markets. They must ensure they’re making the most out of their money and investments.
Most of us don’t worry about things that don’t affect us directly but the economy does. It’s a complex ecosystem that’s constantly growing, therefore it’s important we know what’s going on. For example, have you ever wondered how Brexit is affecting you? Understanding the Forex markets will give you the full picture.
Here are the 3 things you didn’t know about trading.
Trading is literally, as defined, “The act of buying, selling, and exchanging commodities”. Any time you buy food, you’re trading; you’re giving money to someone in exchange for food. The forex market represents an exchange in purchasing power between currencies and the exchange rate is pretty much the value of one currency reflected in another currency
For example, if the exchange rate between USD/EUR is 2:1 a H&M jumper that costs $100 in the US will cost €50 in the EU, So, when you exchange $100 and get €50, you are not losing money, you’re acquiring the same purchasing power you had, but in a different currency.
We live in a globalised economy where no country has the power to produce everything.
In Venezuela there’s a strict currency control that limits the purchase of the USD which has caused USD prices to skyrocket. The exchange rate of USD/VEF is around 1:40,000.
If Venezuela let the currency float freely, the price rate would be approximately 1:10. The massive devaluation of the VEF leaves prices growing rapidly which has badly affected the wallets of their citizens.
Since individual countries cannot produce everything, most companies import some of their materials to make their products available. Think iPhones, cars and food brands. As a result, the increase and decrease of prices in the forex market means that these imports can also become more or less expensive.
Going back to Venezuela, with the USD prices growing, any company importing their items will need to sell them at a higher rate than before, which causes inflation and badly affects their citizens.
If you have ever bought anything from the internet, then you’ve probably used the forex market. Online sellers get paid in their particular currency, so the value of that currency will affect the price you pay.
Most people worry only about news and political events that affect them. However, every election, every separation, every merger, and any referendum does affect you. Economic and political stability shapes the health of any currency.
Look at the GBP performance after the Brexit referendum; shortly after the surprise results that led to David Cameron quitting his job as Prime Minister, the market started getting more and more volatile (higher volatility, higher price swings). That is because the British market was filled with unknowns about the future of the nation. 64 million people will, potentially, lose access to a 500 million people market in 2 years if nothing is agreed.
A lot of British citizens didn’t mind that fact, but the market did care. The interest rates that your bank account pays, the goods you buy, the petrol you put in the car, even the cost of your services all depends on the strength of the British pound. Let’s break it down in simple terms, so you see it.
The value of the pound fell to a low not seen in over three decades after the referendum. The pound fell 20% against the US dollar and since then it has regained most of the losses with prices now at almost pre-Brexit levels. This shows the size of swings the market can make and of course, this creates trading opportunities. ”That means that anything the nation imports (like warm weather vegetables) will be roughly 13% more expensive. So, that increases inflation and lowers your disposable income.
And your bank account? A large part of the interest rate banks pay on savings accounts come from said banks trading in the forex market. Consequently, just the fact of having a bank account means you are a forex holder since you benefit from the profits the bank made from trading currency.
So next time you read the news, keep an eye on the economic indicators, they influence your life more than what you think they do.
In 2018, consumers enjoy more choice and power over their purchasing decisions than ever before. The retail market has evolved to the point where the strength of a product and its price no longer call all the shots. Below Peter Caparso, President North America at Checkout.com, explains why payments may even be considered a commodity in today’s markets.
To stand out with a clear differentiator, merchants now need to emphasise the customer experience. As an essential business function, payments have long been considered a utility. But perceptions have shifted, and to compete and thrive in a hyper-competitive retail environment, merchants must focus on delivering excellence across the entire customer journey – and that includes the all-important payment experience.
As digital innovation continues to transform how people shop, the quality of the customer’s remittance experience is now just as important as any other commodity or offer. It needs to be easy, intuitive and user-friendly. Ultimately, it must make the buyer’s life easier, not just ensure that the seller gets paid.
Delighting customers
When a customer becomes disillusioned or discontent with their experience with one service provider, they have the power to simply switch to another. In fact, research reveals that some 54% of customers are being driven to the competition because of poor service.
In this regard, payment solutions are no different to any other commodity. Merchants need them, but they aren’t dependent on any particular provider. Instead, they choose the one that provides them with a smooth and frictionless payment service. This is a critical element of the wider customer experience and plays an important part in winning and retaining business.
Providers, therefore, have to supply merchants with relevant technologies such as mobile and desktop functionality, and stay up to date with innovations like voice activated payments. To keep up with innovation and trends, retailers need to work with tech-savvy payment service providers (PSPs) that can provide exceptional customer service and experience to whichever user base they serve.
And as new technologies continue to evolve how payments are processed, a collaborative relationship between merchants and their PSPs will be all the more important. Working in this way will enable merchants to harness new, innovative solutions effectively – and to deliver faster, better services to match market demand. They can continue to attract and delight customers, and make a profit.
Tech driven excellence
The challenge for many merchants, is that not enough PSPs are aware that a payment is in fact, a commodity. What’s more, while many succeed in developing and providing a top-class technology solution, they fail to consider its usability.
The best solutions succeed in merging excellent technology (i.e. automation), with superior customer service. And to achieve the latter, there needs to be room for authentic human engagement. It’s an almost paradoxical combination but finding the right balance is hugely important.
When a merchant signs up to a specific PSP, the PSP has an opportunity to forge a strong relationship. It can collaborate with the merchant to help solve problems, develop improvements and progress business. Of course, the PSP needs to provide a mobile-friendly purchasing and payment service – or risk losing business. However, the ability to delight the merchant goes beyond simply meeting their tech-driven needs.
PSPs that don’t work with merchants in this way have a much harder task ahead of them. They’ll need to make sure that their technology is 100% perfect at all times. Of course, this is always worth aiming for – but, without a more collaborative relationship in place, it only takes one glitch to drive the merchant into the arms of a competitor.
As we head deeper into 2018, merchants need to go above and beyond and pay even more attention to the customer experience they offer – or risk falling behind their competitors.
Now a booming trading market, cryptocurrencies do however create an avenue of risk. Below Schalk Nolte, CEO at Entersekt, discusses said risk and the overall safety of trading Bitcoin and the likes.
It’s official: Bitcoin is now the golden child of the investment community. Following news headlines about becoming instant millionaires, starry-eyed cryptocurrency enthusiasts are flocking to online exchanges to get in on the action. Sign up, transfer funds and trade – the faster, the better. To keep the eager traders’ money and data safe, these exchanges all need to have transaction security in place. And most of them do – except that their security appears to be stuck in the early 2000s.
Nine years ago, Bitcoin didn’t exist. Today, between three and six million people are estimated to have a bitcoin wallet, with over $3 billion worth of the currency traded every 24 hours. Nine years ago, the one-time password, SMS OTP or mobile transaction authentication number (mTAN), represented the apex of transaction security. Today, other technologies have left SMS OTPs in the dust in terms of both user experience and security – and for good reason.
OTPs are typically reliant on mobile network operators for delivery, and they require additional effort from the user without rendering transactions fraud-proof as a reward. They are vulnerable to man-in-the-middle (MITM) attacks for the simple reason that an OTP is never truly out of band, whether it’s delivered via SMS or another route. Because it’s entered into a potentially compromised primary channel, it will always be susceptible to MITM attacks, while the involvement of mobile networks also introduces the possibility of attacks such as SIM swapping and number porting.
In fact, in August 2017, Sean Everett, CEO of artificial intelligence startup PROME, lost a significant cryptocurrency investment with the platform Coinbase as a result of a simple number porting attack made possible by SMS OTP. Soups Ranjan, Coinbase’s head of data science, commented: “I firmly believe we have the hardest payment fraud and user security problem in the world right now.” So how is it possible that the OTP is still the security measure of choice at the majority of cryptocurrency exchanges – and, more importantly, what are the alternatives?
In order to protect its trader members and allow them to match the pace at which cryptocurrency fluctuates, a cryptocurrency exchange needs to do three things:
Minimize risk: This is done by implementing a solution that offers solid app security and strong customer authentication for all transactions.
Make things easy: A convenient and user-friendly trading platform will attract and retain customers. To put it another way, play to a real-world trading scenario: if you were a trader, would you want to open an app, copy an OTP, switch apps, and then paste it? Or would you prefer to simply open an app and scan your fingerprint? The choice isn’t difficult – especially considering that the easier option is also the safer one.
Achieve regulatory compliance: It’s cheap and easy for a trading platform to recommend or require that their traders install a third-party app like Google Authenticator, but this will mess with regulatory compliance – such as with PSD2’s Regulatory Technical Standards on Strong Customer Authentication. Third-party apps often only authenticate logins, not transactions, and as such are not compliant with these requirements. OTPs, needless to say, do not comply either.
If they want to offer winning and secure trading options for cryptocurrency aficionados, it makes no sense for these exchanges to insist on using obsolete, not to mention risky, technology. Instead, exchanges should be employing a more robust and convenient out-of-band authentication solution that does not rely on mobile networks. They should look for a solution that offers PKI-based authentication and transaction signing directly from the mobile phone, which will eliminate fraudulent transactions and build trust in cryptocurrency trading practices – all while providing a user-friendly experience.
On the flip side, cryptocurrency traders should be demanding better security from the platforms they use. It is the only way for them to keep their investments safe and avoid becoming the next cybercrime news headline. After all, if cryptocurrency is at the cutting edge of innovation, shouldn’t the same apply to the protection of its trade?
Despite a swift comeback from the global stocks chaos last week markets have been shaken up.
Dow Jones closed at 24,601 yesterday, up from the 23,860 low of last Thursday. The plunge happened on the 1st of the month, across the weekend, recovered, and dropped further. Dow Jones is now on a recuperating trajectory. The same drop, recovery and further fall also happened within the same time frame for the S&P 500, NASDAQ and the FTSE 100.
All are on their way back up but fears of increased volatility are floating around. Finance Monthly has collated a number of comments and market responses from experts and economists worldwide in this week’s Your Thoughts.
Phil McHugh, Senior Market Analyst, Currencies Direct:
The switch to risk off in the markets was markedly sharp and severe against an air of positive momentum which ran ahead of the fundamentals. The S&P index fell by more than 4% which was the steepest single day drop since August 2011. The rout continued into Asia markets and the spark was growing concerns that inflation will force borrowing costs higher.
The momentum since the start of the year has been bullish with equities pushing higher and the USD selling off. The honeymoon period for equities has now hit a question mark over potential rising borrowing costs. It can be argued that the bull run had ran somewhat ahead of sentiment with overconfidence creeping in. The higher wage inflation from US payroll data on Friday was the beginning of the doubts and this was enough to encourage some profit taking that has now spilled into a wider sell off.
We have not seen a big correction since Brexit and although we could see further selling pressure it should find support soon on the underlying improved global economic optimism and growth.
In the currency markets the reaction was more balanced but we have seen a defined swing into the classic risk off currencies with the Japanese Yen and Greenback gaining ground.
The pound lost ground after a strong start to the year. The pound tends to suffer in a risk off market and the weaker services data yesterday and concerns over the latest Brexit talks have helped it on its way lower. The next focus for the pound will be the Bank of England meeting on Thursday.
Lee Wild, Head of Equity Strategy, interactive investor:
Just as markets cannot keep rising forever, they must also stop falling at some point, but it’s still unclear whether we’ve reached a level where buyers see value again.
Futures prices had indicated a much brighter start for global markets, but early gains were wiped out in Asia and Europe looks vulnerable. Volatility is back, and investors had better get used to it.
While there’s certainly a case to be made against high valuations, especially in the US, there are lots of decent cheap stocks around. Plenty of investors are itching to bet that concerns about inflation and bond yields are overdone and that any increase in either will be much slower than expected. If that’s the case, a 10% correction in the US looks more like a healthy retracement rather than reason to hit the panic button. Long term investors will be amused by it all and are either choosing to ignore the noise or pick up stock at prices not seen for two months in the US and over a year in London.
There are stark similarities between this sell-off and crashes both in August 2015 and in early 2016 when market volatility reached similarly extreme levels. It took several trading sessions played out over weeks to find a bottom, and it’s likely the same will happen here. Only difference this time is that it’s the tune of US economic data, not China’s currency devaluation that markets are dancing to.
Kasim Zafar, Portfolio Manager, EQ Investors:
Pullbacks in markets are (usually) quite normal and healthy, giving moments of pause where everyone pats themselves over, does a quick sense check and then carries on. In the case of the US equity market it hadn’t fallen more than 5% in 404 trading days (back to June 2016). That’s the longest stretch of ‘uninterrupted’ gains in history, with data back to 1928!
There weren’t enough signs of investor heebie-jeebies around, especially not in January when the US index was up over 7% for the month at one point. That’s pretty extreme and entirely unsustainable.
The equity market has finally taken notice that over the last several weeks bond markets have been reflecting a higher inflation and interest rate environment, so it’s not at all surprising to see some adjustment and a return of some much needed investor fear!
We are going through the quarterly reporting season for US companies currently, which is a good test of what’s happening on the ground. With 264 out of 500 US companies having reported so far, most are reporting positive results for both top line revenue growth and bottom line earnings.
So, as things stand, we see this as a long overdue market correction and if it falls much further we would be looking to increase our equity weightings. Increased volatility is a healthy sign of investors becoming more conscious of the risks inherent in markets.
Ray Downer, Trader, Learn to Trade:
Though you may not knowingly own any shares, there is a high chance that you are paying into a pension scheme which invests in shares and bonds. This means the value of your pension pots is dependent on the value of the investments in it and while investment values increase and decrease all the time and this will have very little noticeable difference to your savings, financially turbulent times like this will impact you in some way, particularly if you’re looking to retire this year.
For now, at Learn to Trade we are looking at this in the context of a correction rather than a reversal. Following this week’s FTSE 100 fall, investors should keep a close eye on the stock markets in the months ahead as the value of the pound has gotten weaker with the sell-off. The Bank of England will announce whether or not it plans to raise interest rates because of this ‘bloodbath’ later this week when it publishes its quarterly inflation report. Should the Bank of England announce a rise in inflation rates, British consumers will have less spending power and will start to feel the pinch of higher costs on imported necessities. The inflation report will give us a clearer picture of how this will impact our everyday spending.
Bodhi Ganguli, Lead Economist, Dun & Bradstreet:
It’s a common misconception that stock market activity is linked to the economy. However, an unexpected and ferocious swing in the stock market is disruptive and can wipe out a significant chunk of wealth from the markets – resulting in economic implications. This week’s activity could mean retail investors could see a significant erosion in their nest egg, which would be bad for future consumer spending.
The latest crash was caused by technical or algorithmic trading, most likely computer-generated as at times the stock market was dropping faster than that can be explained by human intervention. These changes were exacerbated by macro-economic triggers such as the recent US jobs report, which was a strong signal of wage inflation returning. This caused market participants to upgrade their inflation outlook with more Feb rate hikes expected. Bond yields also crept up, setting off a bearish shift in the stock market.
We expect the stock market to stabilise in the near future, but the longer term outlook will be determined by how these fundamental macro-economic triggers interact with each other going forward.
Ken Wong, Client Portfolio Manager, Eastspring Investments:
Currently, the market is going through a much-needed correction as valuations were approaching expensive levels for most markets. In particular, China’s equity markets were up 70% over the past 13 months, and this recent 10% correction from its high is actually not that steep.
Despite the recent market correction, investors in Asian equity markets still seem to be in a better position at a time when corporate America seems more hard pressed to deliver elevated profit expectations while also trading at very expensive valuations. Asian equity markets are trading at a P/B ratio of around 1.7x while US equity markets are still trading at 3.2x P/B after this recent price correction.
Asian corporates in general are still expected to deliver strong corporate earnings and most are in good shape as a result of previous cost cutting and balance sheet restructuring that we have seen over the past few years. Despite the recent market volatility, things are still quite sound in this part of the world, Asian corporates are still expecting to see their earnings grow by around 13% in 2018, with China leading the way with earnings growth expectations of over 20% this year.
For investors concerned about the recent market volatility, they should look at investing in a low volatility equity strategy as we have seen these types of strategies outperform the broader benchmark indices by over 2% over the past few days. The benefits of these low volatility equity strategies is the fact that they have bond like risk / volatility characteristics while providing investors with an enhanced dividend yield and market returns which are more in-line with equity returns.
As long as there is still enough cheap liquidity out in the market place, we could start to see some bottom fishing over the coming days as investors start to look for cheap / undervalued stocks. In particular, investors could look toward those sectors that underperformed in 2017, such as financials, energy and consumer staples.
Richard Perry, Market Analyst, Hantec Markets:
Equity markets remain highly attuned to the threat of the increase in volatility across financial markets at the moment. Equities are considered to be a relatively higher risk asset class, so with a huge sell-off on bond markets, equity markets have also come under threat. The concern comes in the wake of the jump in US earnings growth to 2.9%, a level not seen since 2009. A leap in earnings growth has investors spooked that this will lead to a jump in inflation which could force the Federal Reserve to accelerate its tightening cycle. Markets can cope with gradual inflation but inflation running out of control can lead to significant volatility, such as what we have seen recently. The high and stretched valuation of equities markets meant that was the prime excuse to take profits.
For months, analysts have been talking about the potential for a 10% correction and at its recent nadir, the S&P 500 had corrected 9.7%. So is this just another chance to buy, or the beginning of a bigger correction? The key will be the next series of inflation numbers, with CPI on the 14th February and core PCE at the end of the month. If inflation starts to increase appreciably, longer dated bond yields could take another sharp leg higher, perhaps with the 10 year breaking through 3.0%. Subsequently, equities would come under sustained selling pressure with volatility spiking higher once more. However, if there can be a degree of stabilisation in the bond markets, then equity investors can begin to look past immediate inflation fears and then focus back on the positives of economic growth in the US, Eurozone and China.
Alistair Ryan, Senior Dealer, Frontierpay:
This afternoon’s hawkish approach from the Bank of England came as a surprise; I personally – along with many others – didn’t expect there to be any talk of a rate rise in the UK until at least the end of 2018. The services sector, which makes up around 80% of UK GDP, faltered this month and wage growth is slowly increasing but remains low at 2.4%. Both of these factors suggest a slack economy, so I expect we will see many questioning whether this is the right time for a rate rise.
If we were to see some further improvement in the economy over the coming months, then a rate rise would of course be a possibility, but whilst wage growth and inflation slowly start to correlate, I don’t think we will see any movement on the base rate.
We would also love to hear more of Your Thoughts on this, so feel free to comment below and tell us what you think!
CNBC's Scott Wapner recaps his conversation with legendary investor Carl Icahn on the market volatility and where he sees the market going from here.
2018 is the year you make more money. It’s one of your New Year’s resolutions – but you’ve got no idea where to start. You’ve done the research, read as much as you can, and are suffering from a serious case of paralysis by analysis. With so many options to choose from, it’s understandable that doing nothing at all seems like the easiest option. It’s also the worst. Below Jitan Solanki, Senior Trader at Learn to Trade, sheds light on your options for the year ahead.
So, where exactly should you invest your money this year? Read on to find out more about the pros and cons of different investments and make 2018 the year your money works harder.
ISAs
The beauty of cash ISAs is that you do not pay tax on the interest you earn. However, today, basic rate taxpayers can earn £1,000 in savings interest a year, and higher taxpayers can earn £500 – so ISAs are no longer quite as attractive.
Indeed, a standard ISA only offers one – two% interest per year. Even a stocks and shares ISA that can offer 13-14% per year typically incurs a 6p to every £1 charge. This eats away at margins and, when you factor in inflation – at its highest level for half a decade – not only is money not growing, it’s actually decreasing in value.
Cryptocurrency
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you will have seen the hype surrounding cryptocurrency, the decentralised virtual form of money that can be used to make purchases or be exchanged for other traditional and digital currencies. VeChain (VEN) is one of the hottest new cryptocurrencies around, having struck major deals with Renault, PwC and Fanghuwang, one of the fastest growing online lending platforms in China. Another that you may have heard of, Ripple, is also one to watch as it announced partnerships with American Express and Santander. When considering an investment in cryptocurrencies, the focus now has to be on identifying which coins offer the best technology and are most likely to be used by everyday people in the future – that will be where the value is.
Now that the hype around bitcoin has somewhat subsided, there are good opportunities for those with longer-term ambitions. However, cryptocurrencies are a highly speculative investment without government regulation so investors are warned to tread carefully. It remains to be seen how the crypto craze will play out, but whatever happens, ensure you research thoroughly before making any investments.
Stocks and Bonds
If you’re happy to tie up your money for a number of years, some of your investment options include: bonds, investing money into managed funds, and directly trading stocks, shares and commodities. A fixed rate bond with NS&I might be worth considering, if you’re willing to put away savings for three years, as it guarantees a 2.2% a year growth bond with no risk but is unfortunately taxable. Premium bonds, while not guaranteed, do offer savers the chance to win tax-free prizes between £25 and £1m.
In terms of stock, investment returns and risks for both types – common and preferred – vary depending on factors such as the economy, political scene and the company’s performance. In the short-term, this form of investment is volatile and choosing stocks requires substantial research. There are also a lot of hidden fees and a lack of transparency involved when buying and selling stocks. This said, we’d call out the Hang Seng 50 index as one market that remains a strong core focus for us. This has been on a radar for over a year now when new Shanghai Stock Exchange to Hong Kong Stock Exchange link launched. We continue to see outflows from mainland China into Hong Kong and continue to trade the trend.
Forex Trading
As it stands, by far the most lucrative choice – and one that manages the risk – is forex trading (the trading of currencies), turning over $5.3 trillion annually. Return on investment is typically four% per month on average, which equates to roughly a 60% increase on starting balance after one year.
The British Pound, which has benefitted greatly from open talks between UK and European ministers surrounding Brexit, and the Japanese Yen – weak due to changes in the Bank of Japan’s personnel and upcoming elections – are, currently, a highly effective pairing.
Though it’s hard to argue with the returns above, there is always risk involved. However, while trading does demand a disciplined mindset, as long as you stick to some simple rules you can largely mitigate risk and start to see consistent returns.
The best thing you can do this year is spend some time getting familiar with each of your investment options, understand the pros and cons of forex trading, ISAs, stocks and bonds, and new kid on the block, cryptocurrency, and make 2018 the year you see a return on your investment.
With the recent monthly purchasing managers index behind us, we can look forward to this week’s Bank of England meeting and quarterly inflation report. Below Adam Chester, Head of Economics at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, discusses what to expect on Thursday’s meeting.
When the Bank of England meets this week, it could prove to be one of the most important policy meetings of the year.
What makes tomorrow’s update of particular interest is that it includes the annual deep-dive into the supply side of the UK economy, which has important implications for the speed and extent of future interest rate changes.
By assessing how the economy is performing in relation to its potential, the Bank can form a judgement about how much slack remains - the greater the slack, the greater the scope for demand to rise without pushing up inflation, and vice versa.
The Bank will give its verdict on whether demand is above what the economy can sustainably produce – the so-called ‘output gap’ – as well as how quickly the economy’s supply potential can rise – the so-called ‘trend rate’ of growth.
Before the financial crisis, the UK’s trend rate was estimated to be around 2.5% a year, but by last year it had dropped to 1.5%, largely down to a fall in productivity which has been blamed on Brexit uncertainty.
The Bank will also need to make a crucial judgement on how much spare capacity, if any, remains in the labour market.
A lack of slack
In last year’s update, the Bank concluded that the weakness of pay growth at that time suggested the labour market was operating with a small degree of slack. This no longer looks the case.
Over the past year, total employment has risen by over 400,000 to a new high, and the unemployment rate has dropped further – from 4.8% to a forty-two year low of 4.3%.
The latter is now below the Bank’s previous estimate of the sustainable, or ‘equilibrium rate’ of unemployment, which it put at 4.5%.
It is possible that the Bank could lower this estimate further, but to do so would likely raise eyebrows, as regular pay growth has started to accelerate – rising from an annual rate of 1.8% to 2.4% since last spring.
The Bank will also revisit its assumptions for population growth, the participation rate (the percentage of the adult population in the workforce), and hours worked.
The ageing population, declining immigration and changes in taxation and benefits will all have a bearing on this.
Overall, the Bank faces a tricky balancing act.
Arguing the case
If it is to conclude that underlying inflation pressures are likely to be benign during 2018, it needs to argue that either (i) the supply side is improving, most obviously due to rises in productivity and/or an increase in the amount of available labour; or (ii) that, for the time being, the outlook for demand is sufficiently weak.
On both counts, we suspect the Bank could struggle.
Firstly, there are no obvious signs of an upturn in productivity growth and recent increases in wage growth suggest the tightening of the labour market is starting to bite.
Second, there is little sign of any significant weakness in demand, with recent indicators confirming the economy is holding up relatively well.
Given this, we suspect the Bank will conclude that any spare capacity in the economy is continuing to be eroded.
While it is likely to cite ongoing ‘Brexit uncertainty’ as an argument for maintaining a ‘gradualist approach’ to policy, the implication is clear.
In the absence of a clear slowdown in demand, the Bank may have to raise interest rates more quickly and more sharply than either we, or the financial markets, currently anticipate.
