New US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chief Gary Gensler took over the role in April and has since expressed that he wants to see more regulation of cryptocurrency in order to protect consumers. Gensler says that the nation has a duty to protect investors against fraud.
Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Avatrade, has pinned bitcoin’s price drop on Gensler’s recent comments. Just before 9am in London, bitcoin was down 3.8% to $38,587. The drop saw a return to levels seen last Friday, before a weekend rally pushed bitcoin over the closely-watched figure of $40,000.
As he is one of the very few experts on cryptocurrencies amongst international financial regulators, Gensler had been marked as a potential booster for the industry by cryptocurrency enthusiasts. As such, the drop in bitcoin comes as a particular disappointment to many.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer has written to Prime Minister Boris Johnson warning of the impact that the UK’s strict border controls is having on the country’s economic recovery.
Last month, England lifted the requirement for fully vaccinated citizens to complete the quarantine period when returning from medium-risk destinations. From 2 August, visitors from the EU and US with the same vaccine status will also be exempt from the quarantine period. However, travellers are still required to take costly tests before departure and soon after arrival. Sunak’s letter to the Prime Minister comes ahead of Thursday’s meeting of ministers to consider changes to the current coronavirus travel restrictions. However, many believe that the restrictions should remain in place to prevent a further increase in cases or the outbreak of a new variant.
Shane Neagle explains how trading forex with bitcoin works.
Bitcoin has evolved to be an outstanding speculative investment, capable of delivering lavish returns. It is the most widely traded cryptocurrency, and given its volatility, one of the most attractive options for day traders. All around, Bitcoin has managed to draw the attention of numerous forex brokers, and is widely available to be traded as part of the BTC/USD currency pair.
Bitcoin is a decentralised peer-to-peer digital currency, implying that it is not issued, regulated, or backed by any central bank—which is a stark contrast compared to the world’s leading fiat currencies. Despite its broad use-case, Bitcoin is still largely unregulated internationally.
However, certain countries have enacted a variable amount of regulatory oversight regarding Bitcoin, while some have even proceeded to grant it legal status. In some parts of the world, Bitcoin is becoming more accessible, with certain small business payments software facilitating payments in Bitcoin. In other areas of the globe, Bitcoin faces an outright ban. In this sense, the extent to which one can use Bitcoin when trading forex will largely depend on the applicable regulatory jurisdiction.
In the United States, there are two bodies most concerned with Bitcoin: the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The SEC Chair has asserted that Bitcoin is not a security, while the CFTC, back in 2015, had classified it as a commodity.
However, it is worth mentioning that due to the fragmented legal system in the US, there is both a federal law and a state law. While federal law generally supersedes state law, the latter can still vary drastically from state to state. For instance, back in 2014, Hawaii released a Bitcoin Warning, banning all Bitcoin transactions in the state. The state has since lifted the ban, yet continues to endure a more restrictive stance.
On the flip side, states like Texas, California, Colorado, Ohio, and Wyoming have progressed to be exceptionally crypto-friendly. Just recently, Texas allowed banks in the state to store their clients' crypto assets. Likewise, in 2019, Colorado passed legislation to exempt cryptocurrencies from state securities laws under certain circumstances.
Canada, similar to the US, considers Bitcoin a commodity, viewing Bitcoin transactions as barter transactions. Russia, on the other hand, regards digital financial assets, which include Bitcoin, as property. In 2020, Russia had banned crypto from being used as a payment method. Earlier this year however, the country partially lifted this ban and allowed for crypto to be used as a “contractual” payment. The United Kingdom also considers cryptocurrencies as property.
China started an aggressive crackdown on cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin this year. Consequently, the country has banned its citizens from trading virtual currencies. Moreover, China has also banned financial institutions and payment firms from providing services to crypto-related companies.
Iran, just recently, drafted a law that prohibits crypto to be used as a means of payment. However, the country aims to support crypto mining and bring regulations to its domestic exchange market.
El Salvador is the only country that considers Bitcoin as a currency. In June 2021, the country's Congress voted Bitcoin as legal tender. As a consequence, El Salvador became the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as a national form of payment.
In general, a trader can use Bitcoin to participate in the forex market in two ways:
Trading Bitcoin as part of a currency pair like BTC/USD is hypothetically similar to trading conventional forex currency pairs. In like manner, deals for buying and selling, stop loss, and take profit orders are placed.
However, due to Bitcoin's intrinsic features and the fact that it has been around for a considerably short time, in certain areas, Bitcoin emerges to be different from traditional currencies.
For one, Bitcoins are created through mining and have a controlled supply which cannot be altered. This eliminates the possibility of a sudden increase in supply, which would decrease the value of a Bitcoin. On the contrary, fiat currencies are subject to the supply uncertainty originating from central banks.
Moreover, Bitcoin’s total supply is limited to 21 million, and its value is associated with the fundamentals of the crypto market — not a specific country, economy, or central bank. On the other hand, currencies are largely reliant on central banks. Thus, a shift in monetary policy can cause notable swings in currency prices.
Nonetheless, there are limited derivatives and other paper contracts around Bitcoin. A number of brokers are creating new contracts to allow investors to buy Bitcoin on margin, still, such contracts are very bounded. In contrast, currency traders can benefit from the abundance of over-the-counter (OTC) contracts and boost their leverage using the extensive list of contracts.
Finally, another major contrast between Bitcoin and Forex is the subject of liquidity. Bitcoin’s market cap is currently estimated at $650 billion, while forex is a $6 trillion market. Naturally, this implies that there is substantially more liquidity in the forex market and that Bitcoin is subject to a volatile trading atmosphere.
Numerous forex brokers including AvaTrade, eToro, and LiteForex do offer Bitcoin trading. However, many brokers are limited to offer contracts for difference (CFDs). Considering CFDs are not allowed in the US, Americans should be heedful of the possible legal implications.
Moreover, given that the world’s trusted forex trading platforms are not Bitcoin-based, they are most likely to go through a traditional cryptocurrency exchange. Subsequently, this raises the question of whether these brokers do anything other than allow users to trade Bitcoin through existing crypto exchanges.
Bearing these points in mind, it would be more beneficial for investors to trade Bitcoin using a traditional cryptocurrency exchange — at least until forex brokers grow more prosperous in their Bitcoin offerings. Still, it is worth mentioning that not all crypto exchanges offer cheap trades.
For instance, Coinbase, which is the most recognized cryptocurrency exchange across the US, happens to be among the most expensive exchanges. Coinbase can charge a trader up to 3 distinct fees in a single trade. When comparing Coinbase with eToro in terms of fees, eToro turns out to be cheaper.
However, another crypto exchange, Binance.US, can be cheaper than almost all brokers. Binance.US charges a flat 0.1% spot trading fee. In comparison, eToro charges about 0.75% for Bitcoin trades, and Coinbase charges 0.5% for trading fees plus a flat fee of up to $2.99 per trade. Further, Binance.US charges no fee for cash deposits or withdrawals by ACH bank transfers.
On Monday, Goldman Sachs announced it has launched its transaction bank in Britain, despite the US banking giant previously warning that a troublesome Brexit would negatively impact its funding in the nation. After launching the business in the US last year, Goldman Sachs is keen to expand as it seeks stable sources of revenue beyond its investment banks.
Goldman Sachs has said its US transaction banking business has already attracted over 250 clients since June last year. The company has seen over $35 billion in deposits and has had trillions processed through its systems. Goldman Sachs is excited to bring transaction banking to the UK as it expands its client reach.
The US banking giant is attempting to compete with rivals such as JPMorgan, which already offers a wide selection of services to corporate clients. Goldman Sachs hopes to attract clients who are currently using older systems to its new digital cash management systems.
It can be argued that “modern trust law” was born in 1983 when South Dakota – the first state in the US to do so – abolished the rule against perpetuity, creating the dynasty trust, a powerful trust planning tool allowing assets to remain in trust over multiple generations, conceivably avoiding federal estate tax forever. South Dakota’s move to “modernise” US trust law prompted a race among certain states to ascend as a “top tier” trust jurisdiction, resulting in a proliferation of progressive modern trust laws around asset protection, privacy, sophisticated tax planning strategies, and planning tools to deliver far more direction and control to families with regard to important aspects of trust administration over generations through the directed trust and trust protector concepts.
The Directed Trust
Academics and advisers agree that, in many ways, the directed trust revolutionised the US trust industry by unbundling fiduciary functions, particularly asset management and trust administration, allowing settlors of trusts, their families, and advisers far more control over investment and distribution decisions, while removing clear conflicts of interest that exist in the traditional model.
Only a handful of states have directed trust statutes that essentially bifurcate fiduciary roles, allowing settlors of trusts, family members, and trusted advisers to serve as the Investment Committee, directing investment decisions including asset manager selection. The structure also allows the settlor to select a Distribution Committee which can be comprised of disinterested family members and trust advisers. These two committees essentially direct the trustee as to both investment and distribution decisions, allowing families to exercise a great deal of control and direction over important aspects of trust administration.
The Trust Protector
The trust protector – often used in conjunction with the directed trust and referred to as a super trustee – delivers great control to settlors of trusts, beneficiaries, and their advisers. The inclusion of a trust protector allows the settlor, beneficiaries, and their advisers to modify and control many important aspects of the trust and provide direction to the trustee with respect to investment management, jurisdiction, and trust distributions. The trust protector concept enhances the control aspects of the directed trust because it provides for direction or restraint of powers of the trustee.
Some of the reasons why a settlor may wish to appoint a trust protector include:
Domestic Asset Protection
Domestic asset protection trusts – available only in a small number of states – are a formidable planning strategy that legally shields assets from third-party liability (including spouses in a divorce proceeding) and lawsuits while permitting settlors to retain some control over the trust assets and enjoy a discretionary benefit during their lifetime.
A domestic asset protection trust is fully discretionary, meaning settlors can receive financial benefit from the trust (income and discretionary principal distributions) and protect trust assets from creditor claims and lawsuits while maintaining control over the investment management function through the directed trust structure. With its two-year “look back” fraudulent conveyance statute, South Dakota’s domestic asset protection statute is considered among the best in the nation.
Privacy (Not Secrecy)
Privacy has always been of paramount concern to wealthy families and is one of the primary reasons billions of dollars have been and are being moved into the US – and to South Dakota in particular – for trust administration from around the globe. South Dakota is considered to have the best trust privacy and quiet trust statutes in the US, as noted in a recent article appearing in Trusts & Estates Magazine, the January 2020 edition, wherein the authors, Daniel G. Worthington, Mark Merric, John E. Sullivan, and Ryan Thomas note: “Of the top tier trust jurisdictions, South Dakota has the best trust privacy laws.”
Privacy and South Dakota’s Total Seal
South Dakota’s privacy statute provides for a total seal forbidding the release of trust information including names of settlors, beneficiaries, and the contents of a trust to the public during litigation.
Quiet Trusts
South Dakota is universally considered by advisers and academics to have the most comprehensive and flexible quiet trust statute in the US, granting the settlor, trust protector, and the investment/distribution adviser the power to expand, restrict, eliminate, or modify the rights of the beneficiaries to discover information about a trust.
Fiscal Soundness
When selecting the proper trust jurisdiction, an often overlooked, but extremely important factor coming through the pandemic is a state’s fiscal soundness and economic stability. Currently, top tier trust jurisdictions like South Dakota have no state income tax which is one of the factors that renders the state so attractive to planners. However, there is no guarantee this will always be the case which is why evaluating the fiscal strength of a state when selecting a trust jurisdiction is essential. An objective evaluation, considering multiple factors, reveals that South Dakota is unequivocally the most fiscally sound of all the top tier trust jurisdictions.
Top Tier Trust Jurisdictions Compared
With regard to top tier trust jurisdiction comparisons, it is imperative that families and their advisers carefully consider analytic nuances of each state’s trust laws. “The devil is in the details” and this objective and well-researched chart comparing top tier US trust jurisdictions provides a clear comparison of modern trust law concepts.
As we continue to move through and out of the pandemic crisis and prepare for changes in the tax landscape, selecting proper trust jurisdiction has never been more important with respect to compelling tax planning opportunities, asset protection, privacy, fiscal soundness, and powerful modern trust laws, all delivering more direction and control to settlors of trusts, beneficiaries, and their advisers than ever before.
Bridgeford Trust Company is an independent trust company providing trust and fiduciary services to domestic and international families across the country and around the world. To learn more, visit their website at www.bridgefordtrust.com or contact their team at info@bridgefordtrust.com.
Allan started his career with a Big Four accountancy firm, where he spent 18 months on an assignment in Tokyo. When he joined Buzzacott, his focus moved away from the typical corporate engagements of the Big Four world, and onto a private client-oriented portfolio. His typical client now is the individual, rather than the employer, which is much more personal and means there’s a lot more he can do to help. We caught up with Allan to hear about how the pandemic, Brexit and the Biden-Harris administration have affected relocations to the UK and US.
How are recent events affecting relocations to the UK and the US?
The pandemic’s definitely diminished international travel at the moment, but it’s hard to say how the norms of travel and migration will be affected in the long-term. Now we‘re all used to having meetings remotely, it’s possible business travel will never quite get back to how it was. However, the vaccination programs are underway and we can see the light at the end of the tunnel (however distant it may be), so many people will be hoping to start booking flights again.
Brexit may cause a reduction in migrations to the UK from the European Union, but it’s possible this will be offset by increased migrations from other locations. Similarly, recent political developments in the US may have a long-term impact on the rate of migration there, but it’ll be interesting to see how things change under the new administration.
In any case, the enquiries keep coming in, and many people still see the UK and the US as places where they can build a great future for themselves and their families, whether temporarily or for the long-term. With some of the top schools and universities in the world, education is often a driver for families to relocate. Others are drawn by exciting opportunities for developing their businesses or careers in the great financial centres of London and New York, or in the tech hub of Silicon Valley.
How should individuals prepare for a move to the UK or the US from a tax perspective?
There’s a lot to consider before moving to a new location, and each person will have their own particular circumstances and objectives. It’s important to obtain detailed bespoke advice well before you become resident for tax purposes. Seeking advice at least three months before relocating is what we usually recommend, but preferably longer so you have time to implement the advice you’re given before it’s too late.
Firstly, you should understand exactly when tax residence is triggered so you can determine the date your planning needs to be completed. The US rules consider the number of days of physical presence over a three-year period, so if you’ve visited there before you relocate, this could bring forward the date that your residence begins. There’s also the ‘Green Card’ test. If you have a valid Green Card, you’ll become resident from the first date that you arrive in the US after the Green Card is issued.
The UK has a much more complex series of residence tests. As well as the number of days you’re present in the UK, you need to consider the number of ties you have - these are things like homeownership, family ties or time spent working in the UK. There’s also a distinction between domicile and residence which is important to factor in. ‘Domicile’ relates to your long-term home whereas ‘residence’ is much more about where you are right now. If you have a domicile of origin in the UK, you will be taxable on your worldwide income and gains from the moment you become resident there but if you are non-UK domiciled, you may be able to spend a period of time in the UK with no tax on your offshore income and gains. If this is a possibility, you’ll benefit from specialist advice on how to arrange your affairs to utilise the opportunity.
After understanding your residence/domicile status, the remaining points to consider before relocating are:
If you wish to sell property in your home country, it may be advisable to do so before moving. If you plan to keep the property and rent it out, you should consider how the rental income would be taxed in the UK or the US after you become resident there.
What are the benefits of consulting an expatriate tax expert?
The above list is by no means exhaustive, but it covers most of the initial questions to ask yourself if you’re planning to move to the UK or the US. The answers to those questions may lead to further questions, and you might even end up uncovering your most important challenges as you discuss your relocation with your tax adviser. Also, even after your relocation, your circumstances or the tax rules could change, which is why it’s generally recommended you retain the ongoing services of a good tax adviser, who’ll be able to keep you in the know regarding any changes that might affect you.
The cost hospitals put into fighting liability claims, as well as possibly unnecessary testing to preemptively protect doctors from being sued, undercuts the funding that they can use on patient care. The cost of medical liability to the healthcare system is hard to pin down exactly, but it is estimated to be anywhere from $50 billion to over $150 billion annually.
Those may sound like big numbers (because they are), but concerning healthcare spending as a whole, they represent a fairly small percentage of the budget. Liability costs make up the smallest of the four main expenditures of the healthcare system, which are:
Many studies of the cost of medical malpractice insurance are performed by groups with strong biases. The figures they present are often shaded by their desire to make the numbers fit with the picture that they are trying to paint. This is part of what accounts for the wide discrepancy in the estimated costs.
The two main sides with a vested interest in the cost of medical liability in the healthcare system are doctors and hospitals vs lawyers and patients. Clearly, no matter which side you are on in the dispute, any system that has patients and doctors pitted against each other is a system that needs fixing.
Doctors and hospitals argue that the high cost of liability protection both limits the money they have available for patient care and puts their patients through unnecessary medical testing. The risk that doctors face of being sued at some point in their careers is very high. Nearly half of physicians over the age of 55 have faced a lawsuit at some point in their careers.
The cost hospitals put into fighting liability claims, as well as possibly unnecessary testing to preemptively protect doctors from being sued, undercuts the funding that they can use on patient care.
Doctors argue that to protect themselves from being sued by a patient, they are forced to run extra tests that they don't deem necessary to diagnose a condition just so that they can say they did them should a patient claim negligence. They argue that patients bear the brunt of the cost, as they are left to face a higher bill for tests they don't need.
Hospitals argue that the cost of fighting malpractice lawsuits has a significant impact on their budgets and leaves them with less money for equipment and staff. This hinders their ability to provide their patients with the best medical care possible.
On the other side, you have lawyers and patients who sue doctors and hospitals when they feel that they have not received the best possible care due to the negligence or incompetence of a physician.
Lawyers and patients argue that the tests that many doctors claim to be unnecessary are, in fact, quite often responsible for preventing misdiagnosis. They believe that hospitals and doctors should be held accountable for any mistakes they might make in the care of their patients. Some of the common causes of medical malpractice cases include:
Patients who were harmed and families affected by birth injury may speak to a lawyer about claiming compensation. Lawyers say they should. Doctors do not agree.
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There is no simple solution to the problem of medical malpractice costs in the healthcare industry. The fact is some doctors are negligent, and some lawyers pursue frivolous lawsuits. As long as the two things occur, there is going to be a problem with unnecessary costs.
Doctors and hospitals tend to argue that the solution is to put a cap on damages from a malpractice lawsuit. Studies have shown that even with a cap, doctors still tend to run extra tests to protect themselves.
A possible partial solution to the problem would be to remove doctors from the legal part of the equation altogether. Patients who feel they are the victim of doctor error can sue the hospital directly and not the doctor. Doctors are at risk only through some form of disciplinary system by the hospital or medical board in which they face suspension of their license and termination of employment should they be determined to be at fault, but not by direct financial loss.
This would potentially reduce doctors performing truly unnecessary testing, as they would not feel the direct impact of a lawsuit and far fewer doctors would be affected by lawsuits overall. However, this is still far from a perfect solution.
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Japan’s largest pharmaceuticals firm, announced on Monday that it would sell its Japan-side consumer healthcare business to US private equity company Blackstone Group Limited.
Takeda has been selling its over-the-counter assets in several nations in a bid to refocus its business towards the development of new drugs and reducing the debt it acquired from its $59 billion purchase of Shire Plc in 2019.
During an online briefing, Takeda chief executive Christophe Weber said that the company had decided to sell its Japanese consumer business unit due to the difficulty of continuing to invest in OTC businesses while keeping this new focus.
“My responsibility is to make sure that we don’t destroy value (for OTC businesses) but create value, and to create value we need to grow businesses and it’s not good to keep business and not invest sufficiently into that,” the CEO said.
Takeda stated that the proceeds from the sale of Takeda Consumer Healthcare Company would add 108 billion yen to its net profit, and that it expected the transaction to close by 31 March.
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Blackstone outbid competition from Japanese pharmaceutical group Taisho and other private equity companies to acquire TCHC. In a statement, the company said that the purchase would be its second acquisition in Japan after acquiring Ayumi Pharmaceutical Corp in a $1 billion deal in March 2019.
This new purchase will give Blackstone control over TCHC’s Alinamin line of energy drinks and vitamin supplements, and its Benza Block cold medicine.
US retail sales saw a smaller increase than expected during July, and may slow further in the months ahead due to spiralling COVID-19 cases and a reduction in unemployment benefits, the US Commerce Department announced on Friday.
Overall retail sales increased by 1.2% in July, falling behind the 8.2% increase seen in June – which was itself a sharp decrease from an 18.2% increase in May. However, May’s surge, the largest on record, followed two months of equally historical declines owing to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the US.
July’s sales increase did not meet the 19.9% target that economists polled by Reuters had forecasted for the month.
While retail growth slowed significantly, the overall increase in sales demonstrated that prior months’ figures were not a fluke, and that retail had begun to bounce back.
Michelle Meyer, chief US economist at Bank of America, said that the figures showed “a willingness and a desire to spend” from the American public. “There is no doubt the recovery in consumer spending has been robust,” she said.
However, the recovery in retail sales was aided by a $600 weekly jobless benefits supplement, which around 30 million US citizens have been receiving, and which expired at the end of June. This benefit accounted for 20% of the personal income of those affected, and assisted recipients in buying food and paying bills.
While the supplement has been extended via an executive order by President Trump, the weekly payout has been reduced to $400. The effect that this will have on retail sales in August and beyond remains to be seen.
Completing these notarisation-related tasks can be even more challenging if a corporate finance team has to search for mobile notary services using their own time and resources.
The good news is there’s a solution for the time-consuming nature of properly notarising a document. A mobile notary can ease the process, travel on-site, and verify high-profile documents. That’s super convenient under normal circumstances, but even more critical during times like this when people are working remotely during a pandemic or quarantine.
For those corporate finance teams debating the importance of a mobile notary, here’s an outline of how a mobile notary can serve you and save the day in the face of unexpected time crunches. When you’re ready to find a notary near you, keep these tips in mind to ensure that you partner with a reputable, reliable company that guarantees client satisfaction.
A mobile notary is a notary public who travels from one location to another to notarise signatures. Not only do mobile notaries adhere to typical business hours, but most of them can also work on weekends and after hours. Because a mobile notary can accommodate any working schedule, their on-site services can save a corporate finance team a significant amount of time and money. No longer are the days of lagging notary services.
While most people view recruiting a mobile notary as a difficult task, the truth is the process is quite simple. Multiple agencies can connect corporate executives to notaries.
Typically, mobile notaries work with clients' schedules. Because a mobile notary travels anywhere, you won’t be limited to notaries in your local area. No matter where your locations are based, a mobile notary will come right to your doorstep.
Notary service fees are usually standardised. However, the costs can vary based on your location. A mobile notary can charge additional costs depending on your state of residence.
Because a mobile notary travels anywhere, you won’t be limited to notaries in your local area.
Using a mobile notary can benefit your financial business in several ways, including the following.
When you're working in the finance industry, you know that efficiency is the key to success. Traveling from one location to another can be tedious and time-consuming, especially if you need to travel long distances. Instead of spending your precious time traveling or waiting in traffic, you can hire a mobile notary. Because notarisation is their full-time job, they can quickly travel to your preferred location to notarise your financial documents with ease.
A major incentive of a mobile notary is their flexible schedule. They can notarise your documents at any time of the day, including during regular business hours, after normal business hours, and during weekends.
Many notaries offer flexible scheduling and provide comprehensive notary services with no order restrictions—meaning you have the freedom to choose the kind of services you need and the time you need it. It also ensures that a corporate finance team can access additional assistance during their busy days, and avoid paying for unnecessary services during slower days. Such flexibility makes mobile notary services the best option, as they save you money and keep your business running efficiently. Most importantly, it keeps clients satisfied.
Many mobile notaries travel throughout the country. They will come to any given location: whether you are at home, your place of business, vacation home, office, or any other place you find comfortable. Time restrictions don’t limit these mobile notaries, so these trained professionals can make on-site visits anytime, anywhere, depending on your schedule.
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The cost of mobile notary services varies greatly depending on state laws. Each state has standardised fees that indicate what professionals can charge for their notary services. Mileage and travel expenses determine the overall cost. Regardless of the additional expenses a mobile notary service charges, the bottom line is that mobile notaries are cost-effective considering the energy and time you save.
Mobile notaries are trained professionals who provide accurate and efficient financial services. Besides notarising high-profile documents, these professionals also provide client support and conduct follow-ups. By shaving off time spent worrying about the safety of your documents, you direct this energy towards your day-to-day operations. Without distractions, you’re free to tend to crucial responsibilities and ensure your customers’ needs are addressed.
Thriving in the corporate finance world requires a commitment to the most minute details— which is why your corporate finance team must choose the right mobile notary for your business.
There are several reputable and reliable mobile notary agencies to choose between. Devote the time necessary to locate the most accredited agencies nearest your location. In your search, consider factors such as qualifications, reliability, credibility, costs, and flexibility to get the most out of your mobile notary services.
Monday was a day of contrasts for the US economy, as stocks continued to bounce back even as the National Bureau of Economic research confirmed that economic growth hit a peak in February and has since been contracting.
As it emerged that the economic downturn began before lockdown measures were put in place in the US, but after China and other countries were severely struck by COVID-19, the Nasdaq was reaching an all-time high at 9,924.75 points, a bounce of 44% up from its March 23 low.
The S&P 500 also saw a gain of 1.2%, finally recouping all of its COVID-induced losses from earlier in the year. At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrial rose by 1.7%.
The markets’ optimism can be traced back to the Burea of Labor Statistics’ surprising announcement on Friday that unemployment in the US fell by 1.3% in May, hinting at a faster economic recovery than expected. Though the accuracy of these figures has since come under dispute, the positive sentiment has remained.
European stocks were not buoyed by America’s enthusiasm, with Tuesday morning seeing Germany’s DAX slide by 1%, accompanied by a dip of 0.6% from Britain’s FTSE 100 and 0.7% by France’s CAC 40.
Lee Wild, head of Equity Strategy, cautioned investors that “the full economic consequences of the pandemic are still to be felt.”
The companies that issue and service the bigger part of mortgages in the US have seen their shares rally a staggering 38% in the past eight weeks, even though people are out of work and are missing payments at a historic pace. With US unemployment spiking to a record of 14.7%, Black Knight reported that about 4.7 million mortgages are in forbearance, representing 8.8% of all home loans. That figure amounts to roughly $1 trillion in unpaid principal.
With all statistics in place, we have to admit that the current state of the market in this sector is definitely not pretty, and these companies still pose a huge risk. But why have they still shot up in value?
The answer to this is not necessarily based around the current situation but comes from the state of the market from two months ago. Put simply, a lot of companies crashed out of proportion, when compared with the market, and are now returning to the mean.
A very important factor that we must consider when valuing mortgage REITs is that almost all of their assets are carried at fair value, while a small portion of loans is carried at cost with a loss provision. Typically in a liquidity crisis, like the one we saw in March, the market value of a loan tends to be far below its carrying value.
That’s why on 24th March, at the height of the market panic, the mean price to tangible book value ratio for the 12 biggest mortgage REITs was 0.48, representing a record 52% discount from the book value!
Undoubtedly, the selloff was a result of a liquidity concern, and since then we’ve seen a rebound in the price. On 22nd May, the mean price to tangible book value ratio was standing at 0.88 - a more respectable figure, but still a bargain, especially when considering the fact that historically these companies trade at a premium.
Looking at the past six months, we can see just how big the drop was in the mREIT space. On a positive note, that means that there’s still plenty of room for the upside.
Now let’s look at some of the risks involved in the current valuation of companies.
To start with the elephant in the room: What are the chances of a default in the sector? It varies depending on the company, but because most of the players in this space only issue agency loans, which are backed by the Federal Government, there’s no credit risk.
It’s not a secret that new business is struggling. The Federal Bank of Saint Louis recently reported that new home sales have dropped by 42%. The first problem that stems from this is the complete shock to the whole MBS market and securitisation system. That’s where the Federal Reserve comes in to help, with at least a $200 billion MBS purchase program. This has been a huge liquidity driver in the space and has helped to prevent a deeper crisis. Even still, the number of people applying for mortgages has dropped dramatically and this will, in turn, put pressure on the bottom line for servicers.
We can’t discuss MBS without mentioning prepayment risk. With mortgage rates falling below 3%, a lot more people are expected to be refinancing their mortgages and thus reducing the yield to maturity, right?
And here, I have some good news for you – it turns out that the PSA speed is not increasing as much as expected. As a result of the current economic situation, people are not really looking to refinance their mortgage, according to a press release published by Agency Investment Corp. If this trend of lower PSA speed continues, the fair value of loans will increase by a wide margin.
If everything seems alright, then why are these companies still trading at a discount?
One thing that’s keeping investors up at night is the risk of technical default, or more specifically, failing to uphold some of the negative covenants, particularly those for leverage ratios. The standard for the industry is a Debt to Equity of 9 to 11. Such high leverage may result in a credit downgrade even with the slightest reduction of cash flows. Here, investors ought to be most careful. There are significant differences in the leverage of separate companies and even more significant differences in the net cash position. Some companies entered the crisis well prepared and others — not as much. This is why we don’t recommend buying the whole sector through an ETF, but instead, carefully selecting companies that have a stable cash position and enough credit lines to weather the storm.
With all that being said, we think that the potential return in this sector far outweighs the risks.
Dividend yields for the top 13 companies by Market capitalisation
Currently, the mean dividend yield in the biggest mREITs is 16.07%. That combined with the discount to tangible book value, and relatively low volatility is a recipe for superior risk-adjusted returns in the long term.